Mercury Prize 2025 Odds: Sam Fender Favourite To Land Award In Hometown
The 2025 Mercury Prize nominations have been released - and there is a competitive outright market on betting sites.
Several big names have received a nod, including Pulp, Wolf Alice, CMAT, Fontaines D.C. and Sam Fender. PinkPantheress' 20-minute mixtape, Fancy That, has also been nominated.
The record could be the shortest album in Mercury Prize history to win the award, but one Mercury Prize record has already been broken.
Following Martin Carthy's nomination for the album Transform Me Then Into A Fish, which dropped on his 84th birthday, he is the oldest person to ever be nominated for the coveted accolade.
But who will win the prize?
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Stars To Align For Sam?
The Mercury Prize is on the move this year - for the first time in the award's 33-year history.
The ceremony usually takes place in London, but this year it will be at Newcastle's Utilita Arena on Thursday, 16 October.
There will be one act that will be particularly buzzing with the location change.
Singer-songwriter Sam Fender was born in South Shields - a stone's throw from Newcastle-upon-Tyne - and his record People Watching is the early 11/8 favourite on betting apps to win his first-ever Mercury Prize.
Mercury Prize 2025 Odds: Outright
Artist | Album | Odds | Probability |
Sam Fender | People Watching | 11/8 | 42.1% |
Fontaines D.C. | Romance | 6/4 | 40% |
CMAT | EURO-COUNTRY | 15/8 | 34.8% |
Wolf Alice | The Clearing | 2/1 | 33.3% |
Jacob Alon | In Limerence | 5/2 | 28.6% |
FKA twigs | EUSEXUA | 3/1 | 25% |
PinkPantheress | Fancy That | 7/2 | 22.2% |
Pulp | More | 4/1 | 20% |
Joe Webb | Hamstrings & Hurricanes | 5/1 | 16.7% |
Emma-Jean Thackray | Weirdo | 6/1 | 14.3% |
Martin Carthy | Transform Me Then Into A Fish | 8/1 | 11.1% |
Pa Salieu | Afrikan Alien | 10/1 | 9.1% |
It is his second nomination, after Fender received a nod in 2022 for his second studio album, Seventeen Going Under, but he lost out to Little Simz's Sometimes I Might Be Introvert that year.
Fender feels "honoured" to be nominated this year, but he has some stiff competition to overcome if he is to win in Newcastle.
Irish acts Fontaines D.C., with their album Romance, and CMAT's EURO-COUNTRY are next in the betting.
Second favourites Fontaines D.C. are 6/4 to win for what many believe is a no-skip record, but they could come up against one better in their compatriot CMAT (15/8).
CMAT's Mercury Prize Inspiration
Like Fender, both Irish acts have received a Mercury Prize nod before.
CMAT will be back at the awards for the second consecutive year, after she was in London to see Crazymad, For Me lose to English Teacher's This Could Be Texas in 2024.
The defeat inspired her to make "experimental and intense" record EURO-COUNTRY. After being shortlisted this year, CMAT wrote on Instagram: "My album EURO-COUNTRY has been shortlisted for the 2025 @mercuryprize!!
"I had a weird thing happen at the Mercury Prize 2024 when Annie Mac was announcing who the winner was. As she was reading it, I had this weird flip in my stomach, that I didn’t want to win the Mercury Prize for THAT record, because I had a feeling that I could make something better.
"Two days later, I started to make EURO-COUNTRY. The Mercury Prize put a bottle rocket up my bum, to try and do something a bit more cutting edge and experimental and intense, if that makes sense.
"I didn’t necessarily expect to be nominated again as a result, but I am very happy to have been x x (sic)"
Record-Breakers Wolf Alice Seek Second Win
Prolific Mercury Prize nominees Wolf Alice will be hoping to upset the front three.
The rockers' fourth studio album, The Clearing, is up for the coveted prize, meaning they have, quite incredibly, become the first group in the Prize's history to receive nominations for their first four albums.
Wolf Alice are no strangers to Mercury glory. Their second studio album, Visions of a Life, won the prize in 2018, and they are 2/1 to score victory for a second time.
Pulp have also been nominated four times, and they are aiming for their second Mercury Prize win after their eighth studio album, More, received a nod this year.
The Common People hitmakers - who scooped the gong in 1996 for their fifth studio album Different Class - are 4/1 to roll back the years and secure more Mercury success.
Jacob Alon admitted it is "absolutely bonkers" to be nominated for their record In Limerence (5/2), adding to BBC Radio 6 Music: "I know a lot of people say this, but I truly can't believe it. It's not caught up with me.
"It matters so much for me to be up with so many of my heroes."
Alon will face stiff competition from PinkPantheress' Fancy That (7/2) and gifted pianist Joe Webb's jazz album Hamstrings & Hurricanes (5/1).
Emma-Jean Thackray (6/1) is nominated for Weirdo - an album she said has "saved [her] life" - and Pa Salieu's Afrikan Alien is propping up the market at 10/1.
Martin Carthy joked that his nomination for Transform Me Then Into A Fish has been a "long time coming," but the 84-year-old star may have to wait even longer for his first-ever Mercury Prize as he is an 8/1 outsider for glory.
Which act do you think will take home the coveted award? Leave your comments below.
