Who Will Be Next Tory To Defect To Reform? 10 Contenders To Join Farage's Party

Former Conservative chancellor Nadhim Zahawi joined a growing list of Tory politicians by defecting to Nigel Farage's Reform party, but who could be next?

Zahawi, who served under Boris Johnson's premiership three years ago only to be sacked in 2023 after breaching the ministerial code over his tax affairs, had told Farage in 2014 that he had "been a Conservative all my life and will die a Conservative.

Those words are starting to look empty as Zahawi joins the likes of Nadine Dorries, Andrea Jenkyns, Lee Anderson and many others in leaving the Tories for Reform UK, who are Evens favourite on betting sites to win the most seats at the next General Election.

Gambling.com picks out 10 potential rebels and their next Tory to defect to Reform odds.

Richard Holden - 3/1 (25%)

Holden’s wafer-thin victory in Basildon and Billericay was one of very few moments of relief for the Conservatives at the 2024 General Election. 

His margin over Labour was just 20 votes, with the Reform candidate only 1,651 further behind. 

Formerly a three-way marginal, this Essex constituency is prime Reform territory now their national vote share has more or less doubled.

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Holden’s biggest claim to fame was pressing police to investigate Keir Starmer (remember ‘Beergate’?) and Angela Rayner over her tax affairs - neither of which amounted to much more than wasting police time. 

That demonstrated a willingness to serve both the Johnson and Rishi Sunak regimes, cutting across the division between those two camps, so loyalty may not be his strongest suit.

Nigel Mills - 4/1 (20%)

Zahawi’s shock defection to Reform demonstrated the allure for former MPs desperately looking for a way back into parliament. 

This former Amber Valley MP ticks several boxes. 

Mills was consistently on the ultra-Eurosceptic wing of the Conservative Party and his former seat is another which sits very high (eighth) on the Reform target list. 

If Labour indeed lose it, as current polling strongly suggests, their chance is much better than the Tories.

Jacob Rees-Mogg - 5/1 (16.7%)

Past statements, criticisms and denials should be taken with a pinch of salt. Zahawi, for example, previously said he wouldn’t feel safe in a Farage-led Britain. 

Therefore, Jacob Rees-Mogg’s recent statement that he "wasn’t intending" to join Reform, because it "isn’t quite there yet", can hardly be seen as ruling out the possibility forever.

An ultra-Eurosceptic, the GB News presenter perfectly fits the profile of a Tory-Reform defector. 

Whilst he is currently, credibly, talking about ‘uniting the right’, if he intends to win his old Somerset seat back, Reform are better placed to do so.

Amanda Milling - 8/1 (11.1%)

Milling was MP for Cannock Chase between 2015 and 2024, succeeding Aidan Burley, who has since joined Reform. 

Again, this seat is a top Reform target, ranked 11th on their list. 

Aged only 50, there must be a high chance that Milling will want to resume her parliamentary career. 

Whilst she could not be described as the perfect Reform type, having voted to remain in the EU, she quickly switched sides and became an early endorser of Johnson, and later Zahawi, despite him being a no-hoper in the next leadership contest.

Next Tory To Defect To Reform Odds:

Dame Rebecca Harris - 9/1 (10%)  

Castle Point became the first UKIP seat when Tory MP Bob Spink defected to them way back in 2008. 

Its demographics were ideal for Leave, the Brexit Party and all things Farage. That none of his parties have taken it since owes a great deal to the longstanding MP, who is now the opposition chief whip.

Thus, were Harris to defect now, it would be a huge blow to the Conservatives, potentially derailing Kemi Badenoch’s leadership and perhaps helping facilitate an electoral pact. 

Those are big incentives for Farage, and Harris would likely lose the seat next time otherwise. 

Robert Jenrick - 14/1 (6.7%)

The person most likely to benefit from such a pact would be the shadow lord chancellor, justice secretary and favourite on betting apps to be next Conservative leader.

Jenrick is out pushing his claims in every possible media space and outflanking Reform to the right. 

It is easy to imagine a Jenrick-Farage pact at the next election. 

With Badenoch hardly safe in her job, it is unlikely that he will switch in the short-term but, were he to decide that the Tory leadership will never be his, such a move could make sense. 

Boris Johnson - 25/1 (3.8%)

The former PM’s lingering political ambitions are obvious. 

He, more than any Tory, seems to have a direct line to the typical Reform voter. 

Could it happen? He has ruled it out, as have they, but Zawahi was the latest of his close allies to defect, following in the footsteps of Nadine Dorries. 

Never say never.

Dominic Raab - 33/1 (2.9%)

Prior to becoming deputy prime minister to Johnson, Raab was one of the most fervent Eurosceptic MPs and a key player in the Brexit movement. 

Not much has been heard from Raab since losing his Surrey constituency to the Lib Dems, but if he wanted a way back at the still young age of 51, Reform could appeal.

Liz Truss - 50/1 (2%)

In ideological terms, Britain’s shortest-serving PM seems perfect for Reform, having become a fervent Trump/MAGA supporter and embraced fringe right-wing conspiracy theories. 

A new YouTube show suggests Truss retains political ambitions. 

The question is would anyone want such a toxic figure? Farage was previously swift to reject the idea.

Michael Gove - 100/1 (1%)

Gove would be Farage’s greatest signing to date. 

A genuine heavyweight and fellow traveller for the Brexit cause. 

However, as he is now editor of The Spectator, a return to frontline politics does not seem high on Gove’s agenda.

* Reminder: These are hypothetical odds provided by industry experts.

Who do you think could be the next Tory politician to defect to Reform UK? Let us know your thoughts in the comment box below!