Rhys Williams' Racing Tips: 8 Selections For Royal Ascot Day 4
Horse racing expert Rhys Williams is sharing his best selections for Day 4 of Royal Ascot.
Rhys has been a racing analyst for over 10 years, working for At The Races and most recently as a tipster for Betfair, where his tipping column had a 31% ROI over four and a half years.
He often focuses away from the front end of the market, finding angles that aren't evident to most.
Rhys' tips have returned 338.92 points from 214.5 points staked, meaning his profit and loss record stands at a whopping +124.42pts overall - thanks to a sensational spell that included Lamar Canyon's win at 150/1 recently.
Here are Rhys' tips for Day 4 of Royal Ascot, using the most up-to-date odds from the best horse racing betting sites.
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15:05 Royal Ascot Day 4: Division - 0.5pts Each-Way @ 14/1
The going stick suggests the straight course might have a bit more of an even look to it and there are two horses drawn on the far side who appeal at the prices in the Commonwealth Cup.
Division finished behind Venetian Sun last time at Haydock, and it may well be that the filly is simply too classy for him and the rest of this field, but I think Division could have a better chance of reversing those placings than the market suggests.
He raced too keenly without any cover that day and ended up pulling his way into contention with two furlongs to go and that left him vulnerable to the more patiently ridden Venetian Sun.
Division had also shaped better than the result on his seasonal debut over this course and distance, when he was awkwardly away from the stalls and raced at the back of the field in a steadily run race.
He was also reported to look in need of the run that day so there are multiple reasons why he can reverse placings with the first two home there.
This race is likely to be very strongly run and this could be the first chance that Division has had to be able to settle properly in the first half of the race, and that can allow him to finish strongly and pick off those ridden prominently in the closing stages.
While the track may be playing more evenly on the going stick, there is still the concern that there is more early pace drawn on the near side.
So he might not be able to get the tow into the race that would be ideal for him, but I think he’s a sprinter with more ability than the results have shown so far and any double-figure prices appeal.
Rhys' Selection 1: 15:05 Royal Ascot Day 4: Division - 0.5pts Each-Way
15:05 Royal Ascot Day 4: Zanthos - 0.5pts Each-Way @ 20/1
Zanthos is the other horse drawn on the far side who appeals at the prices on her first start over this trip.
She raced very keenly on a couple of occasions last season, including when managing to win the Rockfel in quite remarkable fashion considering how freely she went in the first half of the race.
Her overexuberance was once again on show on her seasonal debut in the French 1000 Guineas, where she pulled her way to the front and it was no surprise that she got tired in the closing stages on testing ground.
There is the potential worry that she might not be able to get much cover from stall one.
However, I think the drop back to six furlongs could bring out the best in her and it might be that Oisin Murphy will look to repeat the tactics of the Rockfel.
Any 14/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 2: 15:05 Royal Ascot Day 4: Zanthos - 0.5pts Each-Way
15:40 Royal Ascot Day 4: Omni Man - 1pt Each-Way @ 14/1
The way that Omni Man has been campaigned this year suggests this has been a clear plan, and I’m surprised that he’s available at a double-figure price.
He ran well over this trip at this meeting last season, when fifth behind Merchant, who won the Gordon Stakes next time, and Serious Contender who was second in the Irish Derby on his next start.
Omni Man followed that up with victory over the same trip at Goodwood, but since then he’s been kept to shorter trips and has looked short of the necessary speed required for that - so I’m expecting the return to 1m4f to bring improvement from him.
It is a bit concerning that he’s developing a tendency to be awkwardly away from the stalls.
He’s going to need some luck in running given the usual tactics, but Omni Man’s performances over this trip last season suggested that could be plenty more to come from him and any double-figures appeals.
Rhys' Selection 3: 15:40 Royal Ascot Day 4: Omni Man - 1pt Each-Way
17:00 Royal Ascot Day 4: Zooming - 0.5pt Win @ 20/1
The apparent evening out of the track could bring those drawn away from the near side into the Sandringham and Zooming makes some appeal as a filly who could have more to come now stepped up in trip.
I thought she looked the type who would be suited by this trip when winning on her final start as a two-year-old over seven furlongs, and she looked a little short of the speed required when finishing fifth in the Fred Darling on her seasonal debut.
It was no surprise that six furlongs at Goodwood proved far too sharp for her last time and I think this test will be more suitable for her.
Maybe it will turn out that Zooming is simply drawn on the wrong side, but I think she has the potential for improvement for this increased test of stamina and any 16/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 4: 17:00 Royal Ascot Day 4: Zooming - 0.5pt Win
17:00 Royal Ascot Day 4: Green Carrera - 0.5pt Win @ 20/1
In the same race, Green Carrera is drawn near the stands rail and I think she has the potential to take another step forward after winning with more authority than the margin suggested last time.
That was at the Curragh over a mile and after being at the back of the field on the outside at halfway, she made smooth headway to be in contention two furlongs out.
When asked for her effort, she quickened smartly to go to the front with a furlong to go and just held off the late challenge of Punica Granatum.
I thought that the ease with which Green Carrera made up ground suggested she could have more to offer and I expect the plan will be to get cover for longer and make a later challenge today.
She will need to get luck in running given her usual running style, but I think she looks a little overpriced in a highly competitive contest and any 16/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 5: 17:00 Royal Ascot Day 4: Green Carrera - 0.5pt Win
17:35 Royal Ascot Day 4: Golden Story/Water To Wine - 0.5pt Reverse Forecast
It may be that the refitting of cheekpieces will bring more improvement from Causeway as he steps up in trip, but I’m taking him on by backing a couple of his rivals in a reverse forecast.
Water To Wine heads the market and I think rightly so given the highly impressive manner in which he made a winning debut at Newbury.
That led to him being set to run in the Chester Vase, but a temperature led to him being a non runner so his only subsequent start has been when a wide-margin winner of a novice event at Kempton.
Physically he looks the type to improve with time and I think the market has him rightly positioned as favourite.
The other horse I’m putting in the reverse forecast is Golden Story, who I had initially hoped would be lining up in the Queen’s Vase earlier in the week but I think can still run very well in this contest.
He looked completely unsuited by the tight nature of the track at Chester and still showed his inexperience, when getting the better of a battle with Del Maro at Goodwood last time, that rival since coming out and being beaten by a nose in the Queen’s Vase.
I’m not sure that track or scenario was ideal for Golden Story either, as I think he’ll be better when tracking a good pace on a more conventional track and that’s what he could get in this race.
It may turn out that Golden Story does need a longer trip at this sort of level, but I think he has the potential to improve again and run well in this contest.
Rhys' Selection 6: 17:35 Royal Ascot Day 4: Golden Story/Water To Wine - 0.5pt Reverse Forecast
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18:10 Royal Ascot Day 4: Stargazed - 0.5pts Each-Way @ 16/1
Stargazed is related to sprinters who improved with time and I’m hopeful that her career can take a similar path and she can run well in the closing five-furlong handicap.
She showed a good level of ability when looking immature last season and stepped up on that on her seasonal debut at York last time.
She travelled strongly in behind the leaders on the near side of the group and picked up well once coming under stronger pressure to briefly hit the front before being picked off by Fortification.
That horse has since gone on to run very well on a couple of occasions in strong handicaps while the third and fourth have since finished first and third in the three-year-old dash at Epsom.
The manner in which Stargazed travelled through that race suggests she’s matured and has the potential to take another step forward in what is likely to be another strongly run contest.
Any 12/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 7: 18:10 Royal Ascot Day 4: Stargazed - 0.5pts Each-Way
18:10 Royal Ascot Day 4: Zelaina - 0.5pt Win @ 33/1
Stargazed’s stablemate, Zelaina, didn’t reach the heights that her early promise last season suggested she could be capable of, but I’m happy to take a chance on her being able to bounce back at a big price.
She was an impressive winner on her debut at Nottingham and went off second favourite for the Queen Mary, but she couldn’t see it out after setting a very quick pace.
The wheels fell off in two subsequent starts and she hasn’t been seen since August.
She was reported to be tricky mentally, but that after that break and some work that has been done with her away from the yard, she’s come back far more relaxed.
It could be that Zelaina will now be ready to once again show the ability that her first two runs suggested she was capable of.
Any 20/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 8: 18:10 Royal Ascot Day 4: Zelaina - 0.5pt Win
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