Rhys Williams' Daily Horse Racing Tips: 4 Selections For Saturday
Rhys Williams continues to share his racing expertise with The Panel.
Rhys has been a racing analyst for over 10 years, working for At The Races and most recently as a tipster for Betfair where his tipping column had a 31% ROI over four and a half years.
He often focuses away from the front end of the market, finding angles that aren't evident to most.
Thanks to Thursday's 66/1 each-way win at Thurles (Bon Bon Fizz), Rhys has returned a profit of 56.73 points and his profit and loss record for the year stands at +10.73 points from 46 points staked.
Here are Rhys' tips for Saturday, using the most up-to-date odds from the best horse racing betting sites and check out his early Cheltenham Festival selections.
Build your daily yard of horses in our new 'Stables Stars' fantasy game below to be in with a chance of winning £100, £50 or £25.
Play Stable Stars Here
13:50 Sandown: Wolf Walker - 0.5pts Each-Way @ 12/1
Wolf Walker steps up in trip to race over further than two miles over hurdles for the first time today and I think he can improve for that.
He was a smart pointer in the 2023/24 season before being off the track for a long time after finishing fifth in the Intermediate Final.
Moved to Clive Boultbee-Brooks to race under rules, he ran very well in defeat on his hurdling debut at Hereford when not quite able to go with the highly regarded Soomaroy late on.
He’s looked short of the necessary speed for the trip when second on his two subsequent starts at speed favouring tracks, but has run well considering that, particularly when finishing second to Captain Hugo at Haydock.
I think the step up in trip in a big field is likely to bring improvement from Wolf Walker and they won’t need to run him quite so handily as a result of that.
It may be that he ideally want the ground to be a little quicker, but I think he’s capable of handling this and any double-figure prices appeal.
Rhys' Selection 1: 13:50 Sandown - Wolf Walker - 0.5pts Each-Way
All odds correct at time of publish.
13:50 Sandown: Gee Force Flyer - 0.5pts Each-Way @ 22/1
Gee Force Flyer is another maiden hurdler who appeals at the prices in the EBF Final, with this track looking likely to bring improvement from him.
He looked promising when winning an Irish point on debut, and followed that with an encouraging run on rules debut at Ffos Las when finishing third behind Starzand.
I’m not sure either race since has been ideal for him, firstly the small field over the same course and distance, and then the sharp track at Market Rasen looked far too much of a test of speed for him.
I expect that three miles will end up being ideal for Gee Force Flyer, but this much stiffer track will at least be far more suitable for him than Market Rasen and this likely being strongly run can bring his stamina into play too.
Any 16/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 2: 13:50 Sandown - Gee Force Flyer - 0.5pts Each-Way
Read Up On The Latest horse racing betting sites
Why Not Check Out Our Dedicated Fast Racing Results Page
15:25 Hereford: Hey Flint - 0.5pt Win @ 10/1
Hey Flint has shown some promise in novice hurdles and I think she has a better chance of getting off the mark on handicap debut than the market suggests.
She showed ability when finishing sixth in a bumper at Ludlow behind subsequent Listed bumper winner Malina Road.
Having finished well beaten on hurdling debut, Hey Flint showed more promise at Warwick when running respectably considering she jumped out to the right throughout.
The switch to a right-handed track last time at Ludlow suited her but two miles around that track proved far too sharp for her and she could only make some late headway.
I think the step back up in trip today is a positive for Hey Flint and she’s going the right way around for her.
This looks a weak contest and while it may be that she would prefer slightly softer ground, the market looks to have underestimated her chance. Any 15/2 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 3: 15:25 Hereford - Hey Flint - 0.5pt Win
17:23 Hereford: Siege Of Carthage - 0.5pts Each-Way @ 80/1
It may be that Dromard will be too good for these on debut for Willie Mullins, but I think the outsider of the field could be more of a danger than the market suggests.
Siege Of Carthage made his debut in a point at Dromahane and shaped with more promise than the bare result would show.
He raced prominently from the off and despite not always jumping too slickly, he was still in third and travelling well turning out the back straight.
However, he was tightened up a little turning the final bend and gradually faded after three out to finish sixth.
The winner of that race is now rated 127 over hurdles while Ubatuba, who unseated when in with a big chance, is now rated 133 in that sphere and the third and fourth are both rated in the 110s over hurdles.
Siege Of Carthage looked the type who needed some time to strengthen up so I’m not as concerned by the absence since as would be the case in other circumstances and this sort of test may be more suitable for him.
While his jockey is inexperienced, she has ridden a winner in points and while clearly not up to the standard of some in this race, looks competent enough to do the job.
It may be that Siege Of Carthage will be better on quicker ground than this over obstacles in time but I think the market is overlooking his potential and any 25/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 4: 15:25 Hereford - Siege Of Carthage - 0.5pts Each-Way
Early Cheltenham Selections:
Turners Novices' Hurdle: Glance At Midnight - 0.5pt Win @ 100/1 (NRMB)
Maybe there’s too little time between now and the second day of the Cheltenham Festival for a trainer switch to have any significant impact, but it was a bit surprising to see no market reaction to Glance At Midnight joining Dan Skelton after being bought for £245,000 in the GoffsGo February Sale last week.
Glance At Midnight has already looked a promising novice hurdler this season, gradually improving as the season has progressed and with a step up in trip last time in the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon.
Despite the ground looking to be softer than ideal for him and that he was away from what was likely the best ground on the outside, he ran very well to finish second to Act Of Innocence and, perhaps notably given the purchase, ahead of the Skelton-trained Sinnatra.
Given that he showed a tendency to go slightly to his left at some of the hurdles at Huntingdon, I think the return to a left-handed track at Cheltenham will help Glance At Midnight and the slightly stiffer test of stamina may help his cause too.
If this was a market on a run-of-the-mill contest I expect the market would factor in a good deal of improvement for a horse moving from Andrew Martin to Dan Skelton so that Glance At Midnight is still available at 100/1 with the NRMB concession in place is surprising to me.
Of course it may be that they will want to give him more time to settle in at the new yard so Aintree could end up being his spring target instead but the NRMB concession takes care of that concern and if he does turn up at Cheltenham I think he’s capable of running well at a big price.
Any 33/1 or bigger NRMB appeals.
Rhys' Cheltenham Festival Selection: Turners Novices' Hurdles - Glance At Midnight - 0.5pt Win
Festival Hunters Chase: Linelee King 0.5pt Win @ 50/1 (NRMB)
Irish trained runners dominate the market for the race formerly known as the Foxhunter and rightly so given the best pointer in Britain isn’t entered and arguably the most talented hunter chaser is a doubt over this trip. However, there is one British entrant who looks overpriced with the non runner money back concession.
Aintree has been stated as the more likely target for Linelee King but if he does line up here I think he has the talent to run better than his big price suggests. He’s always had a good level of ability but has been very fragile in recent years and has only had four runs since the start of the 2022/23 season.
I thought he won with plenty in hand at Southwell on his hunter chase debut which was his first start after a 467-day absence. He had some issues between that run and Cartmel and he travelled all over his rivals at Cartmel but Autonomous Cloud battled back to beat him.
In an interview this season, James King described him as “probably the fattest horse I’ve ever ridden in a race” when referring to the Cartmel race so it was a fair effort in the circumstances for Linelee King to run as well as he did.
He turned up at Revesby Park for his first start of the current pointing season and beat Music Drive in comfortable fashion having been given a patient ride. If he does run at Cheltenham, I think he has the class to be competitive and his strong travelling nature should be suited to this race.
His jumping is a bit of a concern, as is his fragility, but I think the market has overreacted to the Cartmel defeat and undervalued the defeat of a horse who is currently 12/1 on his seasonal debut and the NRMB concession covers the concern that he could turn up at Aintree instead. Any 25/1 NRMB appeals.
Rhys' Cheltenham Festival Selection: Hunters Chase - Linelee King - 0.5pt Win (NRMB)
Festival Hunters Chase: Ryehill 0.5pt Win @ 66/1
While the Irish control the front of the market, I think one of their potential challengers at a huge price is currently being overlooked in the market.
Ryehill was sent off at a single-figure price for this race last season but he got a long way behind early on and could only finish strongly into tenth place. It’s easy to forgive his bad run at Fairyhouse after that as he was going the wrong way round for him and he’s bounced back this season.
He ran respectably in defeat behind Wrappedupinmay on his seasonal debut at Dromahane, a track that wouldn’t have been ideal for this strong stayer. He was beaten just under ten lengths at Naas by Panda Boy but Ryehill never looked to be travelling and made some bad mistakes.
Given that isn’t the first time that he’s not travelled from an early stage, I’m hoping they might put headgear on him at Cheltenham to try to sharpen him up and hopefully this year he won’t be detached at the back of the field on the first circuit.
Given this is the only realistic hunter chase option for him at any of the big festivals due to him needing a good test of stamina and a left-handed track, I don’t see any need for the NRMB concession when backing him so the bigger prices with the firms who are offering separate normal antepost markets are more appealing. Any 33/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Cheltenham Festival Selection: Hunters Chase - Ryehill - 0.5pt Win
All odds correct at time of publish.
If you are following the latest horse racing tips, sign up at one of the best betting sites where you'll find exclusive offers.
You’ll find plenty of betting markets on horse racing today, along with a wide variety of other sports, at these trusted online betting sites, while you might even grab some free bets.
Also, follow our resident tipster James Boyle for his very latest tips and expert analysis ahead of the day's meetings in the UK, Ireland and around the world.
Check Out The Rest Of Our Racing Content:
