Rhys Williams' Daily Horse Racing Tips: 2 Selections For Saturday
Rhys Williams continues to share his racing expertise with The Panel.
Rhys has been a racing analyst for over 10 years, working for At The Races and most recently as a tipster for Betfair where his tipping column had a 31% ROI over four and a half years.
He often focuses away from the front end of the market, finding angles that aren't evident to most.
He has returned a profit of 12.73 points and his profit and loss record for the year stands at -26.27 points from 39 points staked.
Here are Rhys' tips for Saturday, using the most up-to-date odds from the best horse racing betting sites and check out Rhys' early Cheltenham Festival selections
13:35 Newbury: Sutherland - 0.5pt Win @ 20/1
Sutherland finished tailed off when last seen at Leicester, but that was on terrible ground and I think the market has overreacted to that one poor run.
Prior to that, he had shown promise on his first two starts over hurdles since joining Tom Ellis.
On hurdling debut at Sandown, he travelled well for a long way and was only about two lengths behind approaching two out, but he jinked into the hurdle and lost ground and momentum at a crucial stage.
He was more professional next time at Southwell, when chasing home Looping d’Arc and finishing ahead of the consistent Escort’kheops.
There is a slight concern over his jumping as it hasn’t been too fluent, and I’m not too convinced about his head carriage under pressure, but Sutherland looks overpriced in a race of this level.
Any 14/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 1: 13:35 Newbury - Sutherland - 0.5pt Win
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16:58 Newbury: Kayleigh - 0.5pt Win @ 33/1
Kayleigh returns to action after nearly a year off in the closing mares bumper at Newbury, and I think she can run better than her big price suggests on her first start for Robert Stephens.
She started her career with Richard Bandey and made a promising debut at Uttoxeter. She looked green at various stages of the race and she was shaken along turning the final bend when last of the main group.
She gradually realised when was required of her and stayed on strongly in the closing stages to finish fourth.
The winner of that race, Queenofthejukebox, has previously finished fifth in a listed bumper, while the runner up Gidge, has since finished fourth in a listed bumper.
Considering the inexperience that she showed, this was a promising debut from Kayleigh and one that she looked likely to build on next time.
It is a bit concerning that she’s not run since and I think she will likely be at her best with a greater test of stamina in time, but the quality of the debut run suggests she can be more competitive than the market suggests with the yard going well of late.
Any 20/1 or bigger appeals.
Early Cheltenham Selections:
Turners Novices' Hurdle: Glance At Midnight - 0.5pt Win @ 100/1 (NRMB)
Maybe there’s too little time between now and the second day of the Cheltenham Festival for a trainer switch to have any significant impact, but it was a bit surprising to see no market reaction to Glance At Midnight joining Dan Skelton after being bought for £245,000 in the GoffsGo February Sale last week.
Glance At Midnight has already looked a promising novice hurdler this season, gradually improving as the season has progressed and with a step up in trip last time in the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon.
Despite the ground looking to be softer than ideal for him and that he was away from what was likely the best ground on the outside, he ran very well to finish second to Act Of Innocence and, perhaps notably given the purchase, ahead of the Skelton-trained Sinnatra.
Given that he showed a tendency to go slightly to his left at some of the hurdles at Huntingdon, I think the return to a left-handed track at Cheltenham will help Glance At Midnight and the slightly stiffer test of stamina may help his cause too.
If this was a market on a run-of-the-mill contest I expect the market would factor in a good deal of improvement for a horse moving from Andrew Martin to Dan Skelton so that Glance At Midnight is still available at 100/1 with the NRMB concession in place is surprising to me.
Of course it may be that they will want to give him more time to settle in at the new yard so Aintree could end up being his spring target instead but the NRMB concession takes care of that concern and if he does turn up at Cheltenham I think he’s capable of running well at a big price.
Any 33/1 or bigger NRMB appeals.
Rhys' Cheltenham Festival Selection: Turners Novices' Hurdles - Glance At Midnight - 0.5pt Win
Festival Hunters Chase: Linelee King 0.5pt Win @ 50/1 (NRMB)
Irish trained runners dominate the market for the race formerly known as the Foxhunter and rightly so given the best pointer in Britain isn’t entered and arguably the most talented hunter chase is a doubt over this trip. However, there is one British entrant who looks overpriced with the non runner money back concession.
Aintree has been stated as the more likely target for Linelee King but if he does line up here I think he has the talent to run better than his big price suggests. He’s always had a good level of ability but has been very fragile in recent years and has only had four runs since the start of the 2022/23 season.
I thought he won with plenty in hand at Southwell on his hunter chase debut which was his first start after a 467-day absence. He had some issues between that run and Cartmel and he travelled all over his rivals at Cartmel but Autonomous Cloud battled back to beat him.
In an interview this season, James King described him as “probably the fattest horse I’ve ever ridden in a race” when referring to the Cartmel race so it was a fair effort in the circumstances for Linelee King to run as well as he did.
He turned up at Revesby Park for his first start of the current pointing season and beat Music Drive in comfortable fashion having been given a patient ride. If he does run at Cheltenham, I think he has the class to be competitive and his strong travelling nature should be suited to this race.
His jumping is a bit of a concern, as his fragility, but I think the market has overreacted to the Cartmel defeat and undervalued the defeat of a horse who is currently 12/1 on his seasonal debut and the NRMB concession covers the concern that he could turn up at Aintree instead. Any 25/1 NRMB appeals.
Rhys' Cheltenham Festival Selection: Hunters Chase - Linelee King - 0.5pt Win (NRMB)
Festival Hunters Chase: Ryehill 0.5pt Win @ 66/1
While the Irish control the front of the market, I think one of their potential challengers at a huge price is currently being overlooked in the market.
Ryehill was sent off at a single-figure price for this race last season but he got a long way behind early on and could only finish strongly into tenth place. It’s easy to forgive his bad run at Fairyhouse after that as he was going the wrong way round for him and he’s bounced back this season.
He ran respectably in defeat behind Wrappedupinmay on his seasonal debut at Dromahane, a track that wouldn’t have been ideal for this strong stayer. He was beaten just under ten lengths at Naas by Panda Boy but Ryehill never looked to be travelling and made some bad mistakes.
Given that isn’t the first time that he’s not travelled from an early stage, I’m hoping they might put headgear on him at Cheltenham to try to sharpen him up and hopefully this year he won’t be detached at the back of the field on the first circuit.
Given this is the only realistic hunter chase option for him at any of the big festivals due to him needing a good test of stamina and a left-handed track, I don’t see any need for the NRMB concession when backing him so the bigger prices with the firms who are offering separate normal antepost markets are more appealing. Any 33/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Cheltenham Festival Selection: Hunters Chase - Ryehill - 0.5pt Win
All odds correct at time of publish.
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