Which Premier League Players Are Getting Christmas Off?
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It’s the time of year where we are all reminded that those lucky enough to play football at the highest level are not able to enjoy their turkey dinner and the after lunch tipples with their families because the of the draconian fixture list of football matches during the Christmas period.
With Game Week 19 due to get underway on Boxing Day, December 26, the only way the fit squad members in the Premier League will be at home tucking in on Christmas Day is if they are unlucky enough, or lucky enough, to be suspended!
Whether playing on Boxing Day or in the couple of days straight after, it’s a handy time to not be needed and get that bit of home time with the family!
There are 33 players just one game away from a single match suspension and all of them will be facing a pre-Christmas round of Premier League fixtures between Thursday and Sunday afternoon.
Here at Gambling.com we’ve based our research on the Card Index method typically used by UK betting sites to figure out which Premier League player is most likely to miss the post-Christmas fixture and has his feet up by the fire this Christmas.
* All players on 4 yellow cards.
Ayew And Dunk Fancied For Christmas Break
In the Thursday night game the opportunity, fortunate or not, knocks for the following players as Crystal Palace face Brighton in the televised game.
The most likely offenders here with football betting sites to pick up that yellow card are Jordan Ayew (8/5) and Lewis Dunk (5/4), meaning there is better than one in three chance as to whether they are wearing a Christmas Jumper on Boxing Day or a set of football boots!
With both players sitting in the top five of our naughty list by netting an Index Score of over five points in our analysis they just might be a nifty bet to enjoy a quiet Christmas.
Surprise Name Worth Backing At Villa Park
Even more players are involved in the Aston Villa game at home to Sheffield Utd on Friday evening.
A stunning group of seven players could be taking a few extra days on the couch there with both Sheffield Utd hard men Gustavo Hamer and Anel Ahmedhodzic rated as odds-on to pick up a booking with the bookies.
At odds of 5/6 that puts them in with a 54.5% chance of missing Utd’s next game at home to Luton on Boxing Day. However, after crunching the numbers, we reckon William Osula (fourth on our list with an index score of 5.33) is the way to go with your booking bet at 11/8 with Bet365.
Soft Coufal Might Be Worth Swerving
It will be all eyes on Vladimir Coufal when West Ham entertain Manchester Utd in the lunch time kick off this Saturday.
The West Ham enforcer is among the favourites with the odds compilers of BetVictor to get the yellow and spend Boxing Day with the TV and the turkey sandwiches at 13/5, representing a 27.8% chance.
However, of the 33 players featured in our analysis, he sits all the way down in 20th in terms his likeliness to be card – so maybe it’s a bet to avoid.
* Of those players on four bookings.
Sangare And Romero Most Likely 3pm Bad Boys
In the 3pm games on Saturday it is no surprise to regular Premier League watchers that Christian Romero is in with a chance of picking up a Boxing Day suspension when Tottenham take on in-form Everton at the Tottenham Hotspur stadium.
The odds from the betting don’t have him as the most likely though to pick up a card with odds of 7/4 suggesting it’s just over a 36% chance to happen.
However, Romero is third on our list of who could be in the referee’s notebook on Boxing Day, so that price could be well worth taking!
He is one of four players in the game on card watch with Pape Sarr, Ashley Young and hot fav Abdoulaye Doucoure at 6/5 or 45% likely to get his name taken and hit the Boxing Day sales instead of the football pitch!
Gambling minds of course are taking notes here with the popular bet builders across the Premier League fixtures being such a hit with football punters.
With that in mind across the rest of the Saturday games it is worth noting Antonee Robinson when Fulham take on Burnley and the three wise men of Ibrahim Sangare, Orel Mangala and Marcos Senesi for the Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth fixture.
Of those four, Sangare looks the way to go at odds of 10/3 with Unibet - especially as he has taken second spot on our research to get on the wrong side of the man in the middle!
Eddie Howe will be hoping his already lengthy missing list of players isn’t boosted with key men Joelinton, Jamaal Lascelles and Sean Longstaff all on the edge ahead of their game away at Luton.
Sean Longstaff - the lowest scorer in our analysis - may be the value in the odds of 4/1 should he be involved in the game whilst the pair of Lascelles and Joelinton both trade at 11/5.
It seems the bookmakers think they might be on their best behaviour given the squad issues already. The opposite though can be said for Issa Kabore, an 11/10 chance, which is a pretty much a 50/50 call as to whether the Luton man makes their next game.
Our table gives the nod to Lascelles to be the most prone to getting a card here as his index score sits at a high 4.75.
Havertz Could Beat Nunez To The Notebook
It's a straight head-to-head for the Boxing Day suspension stakes when Liverpool take on Arsenal in the later kick off on Saturday with both Darwin Nunez for Liverpool and Kai Havertz of Arsenal walking the disciplinary tightrope.
New betting sites can’t split them at 7/4 each, or a 36.4% chance they end up in the book in what will be a crunch game for the title-chasing sides.
But, we’re pointing towards Havertz being more likely to offend given his index score of 3.53 to just a total of 3.19 for Nunez - who sits second bottom of the 33 players in danger of a Christmas suspension in our numbers.
Final Shot At Festive Holiday
It's the last game of the weekend when Wolves entertain Chelsea on Sunday for the Christmas Eve fixture and it’s last chance saloon for Hwang Hee-Chan, Rayan Ait-Nouri, Enzo Fernandez, Cole Palmer and Raheem Sterling.
It's Enzo at the top of the market at 13/10, just over 43%, whilst it’s less than a 30% chance it will be strikers Hwang or Sterling in the notebook before full time.
Of the five with a suspension hanging over them, we reckon Ait-Nouri (Index score 3.64) is the most likely in this contest to pick up a card here at 23/10 with Parimatch.
Methodology
To determine which Premier League players are most likely to be banned at Christmas, we analysed three key statistics on each of the 33 eligible players who are on the verge of the five yellow card suspension threshold with four league bookings.
We collected figures for the number Premier League games they featured in this season, how many cards they were shown, what colour the cards were and how many fouls they committed in those matches.
The three metrics used to tally index scores were yellow cards, red cards and fouls committed and they were totalled up using a points system similar to that used by UK bookmakers on card betting markets – whereby 10 points were ‘awarded’ for each yellow card, 25 points for each red card and one point for every foul.
Each individual tally was then divided by the number of games played to give an overall Index Score out of 10.
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