NFL Betting System: What We Learned From Week 12

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NFL Betting System: What We Learned From Week 12
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Over the past week, we learned that the New York Jets have had a major upgrade at quarterback in Mike White all season, and why he was not under center weeks earlier remains a mystery.

Even more of a mystery is why Jets managements have issued a statement saying that “when Zach Wilson is ready to roll” he will be back.

There is no reason that the Jets should put Wilson back at quarterback. If management forces this to happen, it will split the locker room and jeopardize any hope for a deep run in the playoffs or long-shot Super Bowl appearance. 

Eagles Fly High in Win Over Green Bay

In their 37-30 win over the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, the Philadelphia Eagles became the first team this season and the 35th team since 1989 to gain 500 or more total yards and gain more rushing yards than passing yards

Since 1989, there have been 8,318 games played, and the Eagles’ accomplishment accounts for just .4% of those games played. 

Advanced Performance Measures

One of my most important statistical measures is the yards per point (YPPT) ratio, which measures a team’s offensive efficiency. The ratio generally ranges between 15 and 30 in any given season, and the more efficient offenses will gravitate toward 12. 

Currently, the Eagles rank best in the NFL with a 14.98 YPPT ratio, which means it takes them only 14.98 yards on average to put one point on the scoreboard.

Feel free to send me a direct message on my Twitter @JohnRyanSports1 to get the complete spreadsheet of each NFL team.

What Else Did We Learn?

Here are some stats to take under consideration when looking for good NFL betting opportunities.

  • Through 12 weeks of NFL games, underdogs have gone 67-109-1 (38%) straight up (SU), and 97-76-5 (56%) against the spread (ATS), including a profitable 76-98-1 Over-Under record good for 56% winning Under bets.
  • Home underdogs are 28-38-1 (42%) SU, 38-26-3 ATS for 57% winning bets, and a solid 19-46-2 Over-Under record good for 71% winning Under bets.
  • Home favorites are 67-37 (64%) SU, 47-55-2 ATS for 46% winners, including a 53-50-1 Over-Under record good for 52% winning Under bets.
  • Home teams lined between the 3s (between a 3-point favorite and a 3-point underdog) are 37-42 SU (47%) and 35-39-5 ATS (47%), including a 29-48-2 Over-Under record good for 62% winning Under bets.
  • Home teams taking on a divisional rival are 33-18-1 SU (65%), 26-26 ATS for 50%, including an outstanding 19-32-1 Over-Under record good for 63% winning Under bets.
  • Home teams lined between the 3s and playing a divisional foe are 14-8 SU (64%), 13-9 ATS (59%), and a solid 7-14 Over-Under good for 67% winning Under bets.
  • Teams that are favored and coming off an ATS win by 14 or more points are 14-3 SU (82%), 10-7 ATS (59%) and 4-13 Over-Under good for 76% winning Under bets.

Profitable Betting System

The following set of situational parameters has combined to produce a highly profitable 51-15-2 ATS record good for 77% winning bets since 2018.

Bet against favorites if:

  • The favorite is out gaining its opponent by .75 or more yards per play, and
  • The favorite has averaged 400 or more total yards over its last three games.
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