Next UK Prime Minister Odds: Starmer Big Favourite Over Sunak, Johnson And Wallace
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Betting sites have plunged their odds on Sir Keir Starmer being the next UK prime minister to a record low but punters are refusing to rule out a sensational return to Downing Street for Boris Johnson.
Betting on the next Prime Minister is hotting up and the UK nears the next election.
Labour and the Lib Dems are calling for a snap vote now, while Rishi Sunak’s government is desperately trying to keep its own cohort of MPs on side.
The election is not expected to take place until summer 2024 at the earliest, in which time Sunak might not even be leader of the Tories.
Indeed, the turmoil within the government over the UK’s flatlining economy and cost of living crisis could soon turn into outright revolt against Sunak.
It means UK bookmakers are pitching their odds on the next PM can’t have any confidence that it will be Sunak leading his party into the upcoming election.
This, plus the perpetual spectre of Johnson hanging over Sunak’s, is causing some interesting fluctuations in the latest betting markets.
And it means Starmer, while the overwhelming favourite to be the next politician to step into No 10, isn’t guaranteed the job just yet.
Next UK Prime Minister Outright Odds
Who Will Be Prime Minister Next?
The next UK general election isn’t due to be held until the summer of 2024 and could in fact be pushed back to as late as January 2025.
It’s unlikely at this rate that the Conservatives would agree to a snap election as they linger 20 points behind Labour in the polls.
What’s more, there would have to be a monumental mutiny against Sunak for the PM to be toppled, considering the Tories deposed two prime ministers in 2022 alone.
However, Rishi Sunak’s job is far from safe and the Tories could turn on him if his promise to fix the economy falls flat.
It means bookmakers are juggling a number of viable outcomes when setting their next UK prime minister odds.
Will Sunak leave and be replaced by a fellow Conservative MP before Starmer’s Labour wins the election?
Will the Tories simply sleepwalk to electoral defeat? Or is the door still open for a Johnson return?
Here are the top five candidates to be PM. Rather unsurprisingly, Starmer heads the race.
Sir Keir Starmer
Starmer’s odds of 1/7 to be the next prime minister on political betting sites implies an 87.5% likelihood. When you look at the polls, one could argue it’s surprising his odds aren’t even shorter.
Labour are polling strongly and have caught the attention of Red Wall voters who flipped Blue in 2019.
What’s more, Labour are trusted to run the economy better than their main opposition in the House of Commons.
This is now Starmer’s job to lose. Labour has held a 20-point hold over the Conservatives for months and voters don’t seem interested in backing the government any further.
A string of scandals under Johnson, Liz Truss’ disastrous economic plan and Sunak’s failure to deliver on cutting NHS waiting times and surpassing inflation is costing the government dear.
Starmer hasn’t even been properly tested yet. Perhaps by winter his lead over Sunak will have reduced. But, 36% of bettors reckon he’ll get the job next.
Rishi Sunak
Coral recently pushed their odds on Sunak winning the next election out to 4/1.
Their market focuses on who will be PM once the UK has cast its vote and this price doesn’t make for good reading if you’re in Sunak’s team. He has a 20% chance of winning that vote, and day by day his odds slide further.
Sunak has failed to inspire an economic turnaround for a country that is battling a cost of living crisis.
Brexit has dealt suppliers a tough blow when it comes to imports, energy prices are sky high, and mortgages are spiralling.
Voters usually vote with their wallets at a general election and Sunak - the billionaire former chancellor - isn’t providing the assurances the population needs that their bank balances will be better off with him in charge.
Boris Johnson
He chose to quit before parliament forced him out for lying to the House, but Boris Johnson is never quite gone from UK politics.
The ex-PM is not expected to run in upcoming by-elections, having surrendered his Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat.
Instead, Johnson is making money on the speaker circuit and now pens a weekly column for the Daily Mail.
But punters aren’t convinced he’s gone. Twenty percent of all wagers on the next UK prime minister market still back Johnson at odds of 20/1.
He isn’t even an MP but there’s a feeling he could return to parliament before the next election.
Were he to do that then Johnson could gather the support of MPs to challenge Sunak and topple him.
It’s a big ask and the bookies are likely to widen their odds on Johnson as time goes by. But you can never write him off.
Jeremy Hunt
At 25/1 with Ladbrokes, chancellor Jeremy Hunt is lingering in the same position Sunak was when he worked under Johnson, as scandal after scandal hit the former PM.
Sunak’s unlikely to be derailed by the sort of stuff that did for Johnson but if he fails to improve the country’s economic forecasts then there could be rumblings of discontent within the party.
Hunt would be perfectly placed to replace Sunak were he to either quit or be toppled. However, if the PM goes on economic grounds then it’s hard to see how Hunt, as chancellor, argues he should be the next prime minister.
Therefore, it would require something else for Sunak to walk or be pushed – and that appears unlikely right now.
Kemi Badenoch
If it were the economic argument that caused Sunak to exit No 10 before the next election, then Kemi Badenoch at 33/1 with William Hill looks like the best candidate to replace him.
Badenoch is able to swing between the right and populist wings of the Tory party and would have plenty of support from among her colleagues.
Her social policies chime with middle England but it’s the financial plan that would determine whether she could win the Conservatives the next election. That’s what MPs would want to see if they did oust Sunak.
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