Republican Ticket Betting Backs Trump/Lake As DeSantis Falls Away
Online bookmakers think Donald Trump is a dead-cert to win the Republican nomination ahead of the 2024 US presidential election, but have pulled their odds on Ron DeSantis being the vice presidential pick on the GOP ticket.
Trump and DeSantis have been locked in a war over superiority of the Republican party for more than a year. Trump has largely been the instigator of the feud, sensing danger from within the GOP ever since powerful Florida governor DeSantis indicated he would run for the presidency.
The pair were once considered a good shout for the Republican ticket, with the younger DeSantis touted as Trump’s choice for vice president following his split with Mike Pence.
But in recent months DeSantis’ stock has fallen so low, and his spat with Trump so public, that he is now effectively out of the running even to be vice president in 2024.
Indeed, bookmakers have shifted their odds instead on a host of names that are not expected to challenge Trump for the presidential nomination. All eyes are therefore on Kari Lake, who is seeking to enter the Arizona Senate race.
How Republican Primaries Work
The 2024 Republican primaries will begin in January of that year, where declared nominees will go head-to-head against each other in states across the country to secure votes. Whichever nominee lands the most votes becomes the GOP candidate for the 2024 US presidential election.
The primaries provide a rich ground for policy sharing and voter testing, but also act as a platform for presidential hopefuls to fine tune their public image. Trump eviscerated the field in 2016 with his hostile approach, and in 2020 there wasn’t much of a choice for Republicans to vote for anyone else but him.
This time it could be different. Yes, Trump is a horrendously formidable opponent – largely because his accusatory style drags debates away from policy and into the arena of political mudslinging. But he also has chinks in his armour that rivals can attack.
The GOP will name their presidential and vice presidential candidates at the 2024 Republican National Convention in Milwaukee that summer.
Republican Ticket Betting
Political betting sites have drawn up their odds on who will be the Republican presidential nominee, and the VP nominee, for 2024. It means bettors can combine the two for a double on the pair of them.
Right now it looks as though Trump is guaranteed to lead the party into the election. Here are the combinations that could, in theory, emerge from the GOP primaries:
Trump/Lake
Kari Lake is one of Trump’s biggest supporters right now and has leapt to his defence over the four separate criminal proceedings facing the former president.
A well-known personality and wilful disciple of Trumpism, Lake is popular among the MAGA base. She leads in the theoretical Arizona Senate GOP primary, but how popular she is among centrist voters it’s hard to tell.
Lake is an ideal, trusty ally for Trump, and is 4/1 with William Hill to get the VP pick.
Trump/Haley
Nikki Haley is running against Trump for the Republican nomination but is unlikely to get it.
In fact, she’s been reticent to criticise the former president and it looks like she will use the primaries to eventually broker a deal to be Trump’s VP choice.
That’s a smart move and Haley is in a better position than Lake to do this.
However, she needs to start polling higher than 4% if she is to wield any power come the spring. Haley is 5/1 to bet the VP pick.
DeSantis/Ramaswamy
Should DeSantis somehow beat Trump to the nomination then he’ll have some work to do to find an ally.
Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy could be the man he goes with, and the 38-year-old is 6/1 to be the GOP’s vice presidential choice.
Ramaswamy is more than happy to talk about populist policies but his big selling point is his financial successes.
Republicans traditionally vote for those who champion a strong economy and Ramaswamy could give DeSantis more legitimacy in this regard. Still, with DeSantis at 7/1 to be the GOP nominee, a double bet on the combined ticket stands at 55/1.
Trump/Scott
Tim Scott announced his presidential campaign in May 2023 but the U.S. Senator from South Carolina is polling at just 2.7%.
He isn’t going to be the Republican pick for president, but he might follow Haley in angling for the VP choice.
Scott has plenty of Reaganesque policies in his locker and he could act as a strong counterweight to Trump’s populism were the pair to team up.
Trump even wished him “good luck” when he entered the race. At 5/1 with betting apps, Scott is well priced here to be the GOP vice presidential pick.
Trump/Sanders
Sarah Huckabee Sanders worked as Trump’s White House press secretary and is now the 47th Governor of Arkansas.
She is in an ideal position to one-day run for president but is unlikely to go for the job in 2024.
Instead, Sanders could join the Trump ticket and use her media profile to further the pair’s popularity in swing states.
It would be a shrewd move on Trump’s part, but the ex-president would need to shift her “neutrality” in order to secure this ticket. Sanders is 12/1 to be the Republican VP choice.
Trump/DeSantis
There was a fleeting few months when it looked possible, but now there’s almost no chance of a Trump/DeSantis ticket next year.
Trump is 1/3 on new betting sites to win the Republican nomination and DeSantis 25/1 to be VP. Combined, that’s a 33/1 shot on two rivals coming together to unite the Republican party.
However, Trump doesn’t do unity. He’s been hugely critical of the Florida governor, sensing DeSantis could derail his ambition to return to the White House.
In return, DeSantis has tried to “out-Trump” the former president with an even louder war on woke issues. He’s currently in a battle with Disney that has seen him win very few extra votes.
Trump and DeSantis is not the ticket the GOP wants, nor is it what America needs. Trump is almost certain to win this contest, and Lake, Harris and Scott are best placed to follow him into the 2024 presidential election.
