Republican Primary Betting Odds 2024
Betting on the Republican primary odds ahead of the 2024 US Presidential election could be one of the easiest wagers in political history. Donald Trump’s grip over the GOP means that if he wants to run again for election in 2024 then he’s almost certain to secure the nomination.
However, that doesn’t mean that there isn’t a chance of a rival rocking the boat during the Republican primaries. After all, Trump isn’t the only politician with aspirations of sitting in the Oval Office, and there will be some Republicans out there who would prefer he didn’t run again.
Of course, the ultimate aim for a party currently serving as the opposition is to select someone who can take down the Democrats and control the White House. Trump could certainly do this but so could many other high-up GOP members – so let’s not all jump on Trump too quickly!
The next election is not for some time, and this gives other potential candidates the chance to pitch their claim to the American public. All this will come to a head at the primaries – and if you haven’t followed or bet on US politics during a GOP primary before, then we’re here to guide you through the whole process.
Republican Primary Odds
Almost as soon as the previous election cycle ended, UK bookmakers drew up their odds on the Republican primaries for 2024. And it’s safe to say that Trump is alone in his domination of this market, although the price is expected to shift the closer we get to the primaries.
With the US Presidential election still being a few years away, it’s good for punters to compare election polls and the bookmakers’ odds. Here are the latest odds on the US Republican party presidential candidates:
|Donald Trump||Evens (1/1)||bet365|
|Nikki Haley||7/1||William Hill|
|Mike Pence||12/1||Paddy Power|
|Ted Cruz||25/1||Betfair Exchange|
|Tom Cotton||25/1||William Hill|
*odds correct as of 11.11.21
As the list makes clear, Trump is the overwhelming favourite to be the GOP nomination and is, in fact, joint-favourite with Joe Biden to win the US Presidency in 2024. Trump has made no attempt to dampen down suggestions he will run again, despite having lost the last election by seven million votes.
How Republican Primaries Work
Knowing how Republican primaries work is fairly straightforward if you’re happy to gloss over the intricate detail – which for political betting purposes, we can! Effectively, in Republican primaries each state votes on representatives to send to the Republican National Convention and cast their ballots for a chosen candidate. These delegates are elected by Republicans in their state, and aren’t likely to change their mind once they’ve been voted in.
Now, some states will hand 100% of their votes to one candidate, as happened in 2016 South Carolina Republican presidential primary (Trump got all 50 delegate votes). Other states will split the delegation, which means coming a close second is still worthwhile for a candidate.
In 2016, Trump won the GOP nomination with almost 45% of the overall vote. He won 41 contests and was streaks ahead of Ted Cruz. Four years later and Trump being the incumbent president and hugely popular among Republicans meant the primaries were effectively a pointless exercise – he beat Bill Weld with nearly 94% of the vote.
Republican primaries betting really hots up in the weeks leading up to the actual votes – and the separate dates for some of the primaries make it perfect for punters to exploit uneven odds. Will Trump dominate so heavily if he runs again? Probably not. But he remains the overwhelming favourite to be on the GOP ticket for the 2024 election.
Key Dates to Track
February 2024 is when the Republican primaries begin, and Iowa doesn’t always bank with the eventual winner. Back in 2016, the state actually backed Cruz at a slender margin, and it was only in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada that Americans realised that Trump was on course for the nomination. This is great for punters as you can actually get good political odds on individual states in primaries that are much more competitive than the weighted overarching market.
Super Tuesday is the big date to track when betting on GOP presidential nominees. At this stage we’ll have an indication of who, if anyone, can rival Trump. This will likely affect the betting odds, and means that when Super Tuesday (scheduled for some time in February or March 2024) takes place, punters need to be ready to react fast.
If after Super Tuesday there’s still no clear winner of this race, then the votes of Florida, Illinois, North Carolina, Ohio and others should decide things. This is Super Tuesday II and takes place a couple of weeks after the first, so should definitely be in March 2024.
Most Likely Republican Presidential Nominees
Having already served a term as president, stoked up a base that many didn’t think was possible, and now considering running his own TV network, Donald Trump is certainly likely to be top of the US republican candidates election odds. The controversial businessman is never too far away from a TV camera or microphone and appears to have unfinished business in the White House.
Trump could be on the ticket with a wide range of Republicans. Some will try to directly challenge him, while others will hope that simply being on the debating stage with the populist figure could earn them a vice presidency in 2024.
Trump’s biggest rival right now appears to be Ron DeSantis. The Florida governor has plenty of support in his home state and isn’t afraid of jumping on some of Trump’s more controversial policies. DeSantis would be a ‘Trump Lite’ candidate and may be more bearable for centrist voters unsure on who to back.
Elsewhere, ex-South Carolina governor Nikki Haley remains in the running as one of the favourites for the GOP candidacy. Haley is certainly a different calibre of candidate to Trump – she would likely appeal to a wider demographic and bring the GOP closer to the centre ground. Because of this, some believe Haley is one of the few figures who could save the Republican party from suffocating itself on populism. Haley isn’t afraid to align herself with the former president when it’s in her favour, but equally she knows how to keep her distance.
Talking of keeping distance, Trump’s former VP Mike Pence was nowhere to be seen when his ex-boss baselessly claimed the 2020 election was rigged. It was clear at that point that Pence was through with Trump and will possibly go it alone in 2024.
And one outside name who is gaining traction in the Republican primaries betting markets is FOX television host Tucker Carlson. The Californian is a vocal conservative and acted as a loud megaphone for Trump between 2016 and 2020. His odds could come down if he flirts with suggestions of running for office – after all, in Trump he has the perfect template of how a celebrity name can win an election.
Republican Nomination Betting Strategies
Betting on the Republican nomination for this election is all about the individual states. There’s practically no point wagering on Trump to win the selection if he decides to run – his odds will be too short to make your punt worth the risk. Yet in individual states, the Republican primary odds can flip to other candidates.
Other strategies to play the Republican betting odds include:
- Quick on Trump – If you really want to back Trump then act sooner rather than later, as his odds are only going to fall further. In fact, wagering on him winning the 2024 US election will probably get you a more favourable return compared to him simply winning the GOP nomination.
- Cash out early – Many top UK bookmakers offer you the chance to cash out on your bets, which could be ideal if you have bet on an early outsider, for example. Cashing out can help you earn a swift profit or cut your losses and is an ace up your sleeve that is usually worth considering when it comes to politics betting.
- Other markets – As we’ve mentioned, wagering on individual states can be a fruitful exercise. In the 2016 primaries, Iowa went with Cruz over Trump. Flips like this could happen again.
- Look out for celebs – Look, if Trump can do it then surely someone else can, right? Whether it’s Carlson or another well-known figure, there could be a surprise celebrity or TV personality on the bill. Their odds could be big at first and could sensationally fall, so keep an eye out for these.
Republican Party Betting Odds
Whether or not the winner of the Republican nomination can then go on to recapture the White House remains to be seen. Right now, it appears Trump is the best bet for the GOP to regain control of US national politics. But a lot can happen in the months and years before the primaries.
Both the Republicans and Democrats are floating around Evens (1/1) to win the next election. That’s not a surprise as we’re too far out even from the primaries to know how the 2024 battle will shape up. It also goes to show that bookmakers are still nursing their wounds from Trump’s win in 2016 when they had to pay out millions. Setting the odds too early in favour of one side can be costly.
The current odds on who could be the Republican president in 2024 are as follows:
|Ron DeSantis||12/1||William Hill|
|Nikki Haley||18/1||Paddy Power|
|Tucker Carlson||50/1||Betfair Exchange|
*odds correct as of 11.11.21
Just like in the primaries market, Trump is the big favourite here. And what’s notable is that the likes of Pence and Haley are well behind the former president. Right now, it appears as though DeSantis is the only viable secondary candidate to rival Trump – and even he may decide it’s not worth battling the populist figure in this election cycle, but instead bide his time and go for 2028.If Republican primary betting has been intriguing, there’s a lot to consider in the Democratic primary betting markets. Remember, political betting are constantly changing, so check back here for the latest updates!
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