Republican Primary Betting Odds 2020

Craig Cummings

October 9th, 2019

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Before 2020 presidential election betting can begin, there's the matter of who will represent the Grand Old Party or GOP as the Republican Nominee.

Currently, Donald Trump at 1/18 is the heavy favourite to win the Republican Nomination with VP Mike Pence and Nikki Haley at 20/1, though neither are expected to challenge Trump. They are the only potential candidates trading at under 50/1.

2020 Republican Nomination Odds

While at times the Republican Primary can seem like a landslide, the race - especially in recent decades - can feature a wealth of candidates with a chance, making Republican Primary betting an enticing prospect.

For the 2020 nomination, the Republican National Committee (RNC) has already announced it will put it's full support behind a Trump re-election bid.

Although still early, only a few Republican challengers have jumped into the race unlike the wealth of Democrats who have announced their candidacies.

How Republican Primaries Work

The basic premise behind the selection of the Republican party candidate is that party delegates (elected officials) choose a candidate they pledge their support to.

Registered party members then vote at primaries (or hold debates at caucuses) to decide which delegates to send to the national convention.

Delegates that win the primary (or caucus) are sent to the convention, where they vote for the presidential candidate.

However, there are certain aspects of the primary process that may change, and should be factored into the betting process.

3 Things to Consider When Betting Republican Primaries

1. Winner-Takes-All | Unlike the Democrats, some Republican primaries are winner-takes-all, meaning that candidates receiving over 50% of the vote will take all delegates. In practice, this can mean big shifts.
2. Super Delegates | Not all delegates pledge to support a candidate; those that don't can vote any way come national convention time.
3. Closed/Open Primaries | A closed primary means only party members can vote, but open primaries allow anyone to have an opinion. In states where a particular issue or scandal takes hold, open primaries can be very interesting.

Key Dates to Track

When you're tracking the primaries, there are some dates that always deliver fireworks.

Iowa and New Hampshire are the two states that, as the first of the primaries, always deliver a statement of intent from the candidates, and soak up 50% of the media attention devoted to the entire process.

So, when is the Republican Iowa Caucus? The first votes of the 2020 Republican Primary will be cast in the Iowa Caucus expected to take place on February 3rd, 2020.

South Carolina is considered a "firewall" primary for Republican candidates: this primary tends to be the one that kills the momentum of insurgent candidates that gained traction in Iowa and New Hampshire.

It did it to Bob Dole in 1988, to John McCain in 2000, and there'll be more to come. The GOP has yet to set a date for the South Carolina Primary but it's expected to be February 29th, 2020.

Since the 1980s, Super Tuesday has traditionally hosted most of the state primaries, and marks a pivotal moment for most candidates. When is Super Tuesday? Super Tuesday is scheduled for March 3rd, 2020.

Republican Nomination Betting Strategies

Those who are keen to analyse the primary process as it unfolds still have plenty of options when it comes to how to play a betting strategy.

1. Back High, Lay Low | The quick shifts that characterize the primaries mean there's a myriad of risks and rewards. A tried-and-tested gambler's approach to such situations is to back candidates while the odds and long, and bet against (lay) candidates who are odds on.
2. Hedging | If you back candidates early, you may want to hedge your bets by backing up-and-comers if your candidate faces adversity. Be sure to do the math, though: a good hedge should at least minimize losses.
3. Cash Out | Choosing a bookie who lets you cash out means you can lock in your earnings or minimize losses by claiming your cash back early.

If Republican primary betting has been intriguing, there’s a lot to consider in the Democratic primary betting markets. Remember, political betting odds are constantly changing, so check back here for the latest updates!