Nikki Haley Odds Crash As Republican Seeks US Presidential Nomination

Nikki Haley Odds Crash As Republican Seeks US Presidential Nomination
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Betting sites that once gave Nikki Haley a fighting chance of winning the Republican nomination for next year’s US election have now backed away from the firebrand politician.

Haley announced she was running for the GOP pick back in February and enjoyed a boost in the polls and politics betting odds as a result.

Her approval ratings went up to 10.3% following the announcement, making her one of only a handful of frontline US politicians to carry a positive rating with the American public. 

Bookmakers even cut her odds as low as 18/1 for the nomination – an unexpected move that placed her as a firm third-favourite behind Donald Trump and Ron DeSatins.

But in the space of three months Haley’s chances of beating off the GOP’s two feuding candidates for the Republican nomination have worsened, and the bookies have responded in kind.

Indeed, it appears as though Haley’s best bet of getting into the White House in 2024 is to revert to a running mate of either Trump or DeSantis.

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Tuesday 6th June 2023
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Nikki Haley Betting

Political betting sites aren’t convinced Haley has the pull power to beat Trump and DeSantis in the GOP primaries next year. 

Her Republican nomination odds were originally set at 16/1, and came in as low as 8/1 when she announced her intention to run.

But three months later and the politics betting markets look very different. Haley is now priced at 25/1 to secure the GOP pick. Those odds shifted at the same time DeSantis’ price moved in to a new low of 2/1.

It means Haley is reckoned to have just a 3.8% chance of topping the Republican ticket to face Joe Biden in the 2024 US election. And the bookies reckon her chances of winning that race would be even slimmer.

Haley was once an 18/1 outside shot to win the presidency next year. The bookies had been wary that if Trump’s numerous court allegations derailed his campaign, then she could feasibly beat DeSantis to the GOP pick.

But not so now. One bookmaker recently pushed Haley’s presidential odds out to 50/1 after she hinted that Joe Biden is likely to die before he’d complete a second term.

“If you vote for Joe Biden you really are counting on a President Harris, because the idea that he would make it until 86 years old is not something that I think is likely,” Haley said in a controversial interview on Fox News.

The response from the White House was cutting. “As you know, we don't directly respond to campaigns from here. But honestly, I forgot she was running,” said deputy press secretary Andrew Bates.

And the bookies appear to have forgotten too. At her current odds, they reckon she has a 2% chance of being the next president.

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Haley Odds Change Explained

There are a number of reasons for why the Nikki Haley odds have shifted so considerably since she announced her intention to run for president. 

The first is a simple reading of the market – when a candidate confirms they’re running, bettors rush to back them at an early price and betting apps are forced to slash the odds.

But that price almost always rebounds. In the past three months Trump’s campaign has ramped up and his odds haven’t been affected by the sexual abuse verdict found against him in a New York court. Meanwhile, DeSantis is courting more and more support, meaning Haley is getting squeezed.

Almost 56% of bets on the Republican nomination market have gone to Trump, and 29% to DeSantis. Haley carries just over 5% of all wagers, and so her odds are inflating.

The former United Nations ambassador is trying to carve an opening for herself by engaging in the culture wars that Trump and DeSantis currently own. 

She is campaigning heavily in the first GOP caucus of Iowa in the hope a big win there can set the momentum rolling for the rest of the primaries. She’s championing being “underestimated” because “it makes me scrappy”.

But there’s being underestimated, and there’s being overlooked. Haley can’t simply echo what Trump or DeSantis are saying around social issues. 

Otherwise she merely boosts their profiles. Instead, she needs to find fresh ground to mark her out as a specific candidate – the economy, perhaps.

Whatever turn she takes, she insists she’s not simply looking to default to a vice-presidential pick for whoever gets the nomination. “I don’t play for a second, I’ve never played for a second. I’m doing this to win it. I’m doing this to go and save our country,” she said.

And yet, she would be a good choice for both DeSantis and Trump.

×