Polish Presidential Betting: Election Odds Narrow In Race To Be President
Betting sites have narrowed their odds on who will win the Polish presidential election but give liberal candidate Rafal Trzaskowski the edge over conservative Karol Nawrocki heading into Sunday’s vote.
The 2025 Polish presidential election has gone to a second-round run-off after none of the 13 original candidates won over 50% of the vote.
Trzaskowski secured the most first-round votes with 31.3%, while Nawrocki caused an against-the-odds shock by coming second on 29.5%.
Now, bookies have realigned their odds to reflect Nawrocki’s very real chance of becoming Polish president.
The second round of voting takes place on Sunday, June 1, and the latest polls suggest the race is neck-and-neck.
Polish Presidential Betting
The latest Poland election odds look good for Trzaskowski. William Hill prices the government candidate at 8/13 to win – odds that carry a 61.9% probability.
Nawrocki, by contrast, is behind according to politics betting sites at 6/5 (45.5%).
This is great news if you’re a Trzaskowski voter but the gap in the odds isn’t as big as Civic Platform would like. In fact, the polls make for worrying reading for the government.
Nawrocki has almost come from nowhere to challenge the ruling party and is now the right’s focal point for stifle Donald Tusk’s government. He’s building momentum and could tip past 50% on Sunday.
Who Will Win The Polish Presidential Election?
Poland is voting for a new president, with incumbent Andrzej Duda stepping down after reaching his term limits.
Trzaskowski is the government-supported candidate. He has served as Mayor of Warsaw since 2018 and is deputy leader of Tusk’s centrist government.
Trzaskowski is a fiscal conservative with more socially liberal views. His pledge to liberalise Poland’s strict abortion laws and accelerate judicial reform has won many supporters on the left.
However, it appears as though he’s lost right-wing voters to Nawrocki after performing around 5% worse than expected in the first round of voting.
Polish Election Odds 2025: To Win A Majority
Candidate | Party | Political Leaning | Odds | Bookmaker |
Rafal Trzaskowski | Civic Platform (PO) | Centre Right/Liberal | 8/13 | |
Karol Nawrocki | Independent | Conservative | 6/15 |
Poland’s president usually holds ceremonial powers because parliament is often able to push through legislation without fear of a presidential veto.
However, Tusk’s current coalition doesn’t have the numbers to bypass presidential vetoes, which suddenly makes the top job highly desirable and influential.
Voters effectively have a choice between a continuity candidate in Trzaskowski who would allow the 2023-elected government to get on with passing legislation, or Nawrocki, who could give the right a slice of power.
Indeed, this is Nawrocki’s pitch. Left-wing and centrist parties locked out the right during the 2023 general election. If Nawrocki gets in, the right effectively stifles Tusk’s agenda.
Most of Poland’s rainbow of political parties have now endorsed either Trzaskowski or Nawrocki ahead of Sunday’s vote. Nawrocki has the United Right alliance on his side, while the far-right party National Movement is against Trzaskowski’s presidency. It’s not known if they will take to Nawrocki.
Trzaskowski has the support of centrist and left-leaning parties but that might not be enough to get him over 50%. Nawrocki has already outperformed the polls and there are plenty of voters in Poland who don’t affiliate themselves with a political party.
His left-leaning economic policies around generous welfare spending could even give Nawrocki the edge with voters concerned about their family finances.
Polls four days out from the second round of voting suggest Trzaskowski leads Nawrocki 50.6% to 49.4%. That’s wafer-thin.
And yet, the bookies still reckon Trzaskowski has the better chance of winning the election by a greater margin than the polls suggest. We will know by Sunday night whether they got it right.
