Rhys Williams' Racing Tips: 5 Selections For Friday
Horse racing expert Rhys Williams is sharing his best selections for today's racing.
Rhys has been a racing analyst for over 10 years, working for At The Races and most recently as a tipster for Betfair where his tipping column had a 31% ROI over four and a half years.
He often focuses away from the front end of the market, finding angles that aren't evident to most.
Rhys' tips have returned 242.62 points from 154.5 points staked, meaning his profit and loss record stands at +88.12pts overall - thanks to a sensational recent spell that includes a 33/1 and a trio of 28/1 winning selections recently.
Here are Rhys' tips for today - plus his ante-post Lockinge Stakes selection, using the most up-to-date odds from the best horse racing betting sites.
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13:45 York: Obelix - 0.5pts Each-Way @ 20/1
Obelix makes his seasonal debut in the opening race at York and I think he has a better chance than his big price suggests.
He won over this course and distance off a 2lb higher mark last July, travelling strongly at the back of the field before easing into contention and quickening in good fashion to win with a fair bit in hand.
While he failed to build on that after, he did run quite well two starts ago at Kempton, despite that race not setting up ideally for him.
I think the return to this course and distance, in what is likely to be a strongly run race, should be a far more suitable test for Obelix, and he is likely to have options from stall 13 as to where he makes his challenge.
He might ideally want the ground to be a bit quicker than it is and he might need the run a little on his return to action after 200 days off.
However, he ran well on seasonal debut last year and I’m hopeful he can do so again and any 14/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 1: 13:45 York: Obelix - 0.5pts Each-Way
15:42 Newmarket: Case Study - 0.5pt Win @ 18/1
Case Study makes her handicap debut in this fillies’ mile handicap and I think the step up in trip could bring some improvement from her.
She was clueless on debut at Catterick, but showed a bit more on her next two starts despite looking short of the necessary speed for the six furlong trip on both occasions.
Given the greenness that she showed last season, I’m hopeful that she will have mentally matured during the 217 days that she has been off the track and the step up in trip looks likely to suit her.
It may be that she will need the run after a break - or maybe she’s just not straightforward - and the apparent greenness was something else.
However, I think she’s a little overpriced and any 12/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 2: 15:42 Newmarket: Case Study - 0.5pt Win
20:40 Aintree: Carrillo - 1pt Win @ 100/30
The big race of the day closes the card at Aintree and it’s a sign of the way things have gone with British pointing that most of the 16-runner field in this point bumper have been in bumpers at points rather than maidens.
I would much rather be with those that have run in maidens and have taken a three-pronged attack with this race.
The first selection is Carrillo, who I was hoping would be targeted at this race after an impressive victory at Charlton Horethorne two starts ago.
The speed that he showed that day on quite tacky ground to put the race to bed turning the final bend was very taking, and he’s followed that up with another comfortable victory since in a race that turned into a test of speed at the trip.
The manner in which he’s travelled through his races since joining Chris Barber suggests this test will suit him, and while a field of this size always has the potential to create bad luck stories, he looks to have a strong chance of gaining another victory.
While there has been some early market support for him - so he’s now found his correct place at the head of the market, he was initially just far too big and still looks a little overpriced.
Any 5/2 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 3: 20:40 Aintree: Carrillo - 1pt Win
20:40 Aintree: Silver Salver - 1.5pt Win @ 25/1
The next horse of interest is one who I thought would be a suitable type for a bumper, when going through the upcoming Goffs sale catalogue, and it’s of note that they have chosen to run here to try to boost value prior to that.
The horse in question is Silver Salver, who did quite a bit wrong on his debut at Sheriff Hutton last month.
He raced very keenly under restraint from the off and his jumping wasn’t too fluent at various stages.
He was still travelling strongly turning into the home straight and went to the front at the last, but he made a mistake and landed a bit flat-footed and couldn’t get quite back to Itsyourcall on the run-in.
The way that he went through that race suggests this sort of test could bring improvement from Silver Salver, and hopefully he will have benefitted from that experience as he looked quite green in the closing stages too.
There is the worry that he may be too keen again, but I think he’s got a good level of ability on that evidence and any double-figure prices appeal.
Rhys' Selection 4: 20:40 Aintree: Silver Salver - 1.5pt Win
20:40 Aintree: G N Jefferson - 0.5pt Win @ 33/1
The final selection is one for a trainer, who has done well in this race in the past and I think has a better chance of doing so again than the market suggests.
Jack Teal won this race in 2022 with Macavity and had Low Kick run well in it last year when finishing third.
G N Jefferson might not put up to their standard but I think he could improve on what he’s shown so far in two starts in maidens.
He went too keenly in front on debut over 3m at Didmarton when weakening away after three out.
They dropped him back in trip to 2m 4f next time at Garthorpe, and he jumped three out in a share of the lead before once again not seeing out the trip.
There is a concern that he might just be a bit weak off the bridle at this stage of his career, but he’s bred to appreciate this sharper test and it’s a benefit that Jack Teal is able to claim 7lb against fellow amateurs.
Any 16/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 5: 20:40 Aintree: G N Jefferson - 0.5pt Win
Lockinge Stakes
(Newbury, Saturday 14:35):
Sahlan - 1pt Each-Way @ 14/1
Sahlan finished behind Notable Speech and The Lion In Winter when last seen at the Breeders Cup, but I think he has the potential to reverse that form in the Lockinge on Saturday.
He got a bit upset in the stalls at Del Mar and didn’t look at all suited by the track, being shuffled back around the final turn before running on to finish fifth while carrying his tail awkwardly.
Prior to that, he put up an excellent performance when winning the Moulin at Longchamp, holding off the late challenge of Rosallion and finishing ahead of The Lion In Winter.
Given his gradual improvement last season, I’m hopeful that there will be more to come from Sahlan, and I think this straight mile will be a far more suitable test for him than Del Mar.
There is the slight concern that he doesn’t have the benefit of a recent run that others do, but I think the market is overlooking his chance and any double-figure prices appeal.
Rhys' Lockinge Stakes Ante-Post: Newbury (Saturday 14:35): Sahlan - 1pt Each-Way
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