Rhys Williams' Racing Tips: 11 Selections For Friday
Horse racing expert Rhys Williams is sharing his best selections for today's racing.
Rhys has been a racing analyst for over 10 years, working for At The Races and most recently as a tipster for Betfair where his tipping column had a 31% ROI over four and a half years.
He often focuses away from the front end of the market, finding angles that aren't evident to most.
Thanks to his recent winners, Rhys' tips have returned 149.93 points from 120 points staked, meaning his profit and loss record stands at 29.93pts overall.
Here are Rhys' tips for Friday, using the most up-to-date odds from the best horse racing betting sites.
Build your daily yard of horses in our new 'Stables Stars' fantasy game below to be in with a chance of winning £100, £50 or £25.
Play Stable Stars Here
15:12 Perth: Solly Attwell - 0.5pt Win @ 17/2
Solly Attwell finished well beaten at Downpatrick last time, but he ran much better than the margin beaten suggests and the better ground today can bring more from him.
He was wearing blinkers for the first time on that latest start and travelled strongly towards the back of the field for the first couple of circuits before making headway turning away from the stands for the last time.
The progress continued and he was close up jumping three out, but he started to tire between the last two fences and faded to finish a well beaten seventh.
I think the drop back in trip and better ground are positives for Solly Attwell’s chance and he’s now racing off a 7lb lower mark than when running respectably at Cheltenham earlier in the season.
Any 13/2 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 1: 15:12 Perth - Solly Attwell - 0.5pt Win
15:25 Doncaster: Tarmonbarry Kid - 0.5pt Win @ 16/1
Tarmonbarry Kid has been disappointing on his last two starts considering the promise on his debut, but I wouldn’t be as surprised as the market if he bounced back today.
The debut run was at Chester where his inexperience showed in the early stages and he raced at the back of the field. He continued to race greenly at the back of the field and was shaken along with just under three furlongs to go.
He responded and his jockey was looking for a clear run turning the final bend and after he finally got one late on, Tarmonbarry Kid ran on strongly to finish fifth.
That race has worked out well, with the horses who finished in third and fourth now rated in the 90s.
Tarmonbarry Kid’s two subsequent runs haven’t been as encouraging but they were both at Newcastle, which is a track that some horses just don’t seem to take to, and it may be that gelding him since the third run will help to bring him back to a better level of form.
The return to turf also looks a positive for his chance and while there is a concern that he might just have gone backwards since the debut for whatever reason, he looks overpriced and any double-figure prices appeal.
Rhys' Selection 2: 15:25 Doncaster - Tarmonbarry Kid - 0.5pt Win
15:25 Doncaster: Attention Seeker - 0.5pt Win @ 80/1
At a bigger price in the same race, I can’t let Attention Seeker go unbacked now that he’s only got one left-handed bend to deal with before a long straight.
He clearly looked unsuited by Wolverhampton on his last two starts when hanging right, so it’s easy to forgive those performances and I don’t think the steady early pace suited him on his stable debut at Newcastle.
He looked like he had some ability when trained by Harry Eustace and while there is a worry that he’s just not straightforward and will want further than this once learning to race properly, his price is too big for me to ignore.
Any 40/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 3: 15:25 Doncaster - Attention Seeker - 0.5pt Win
Read Up On The Latest Horse Racing Betting Sites
Why Not Check Out Our Dedicated Fast Racing Results Page
17:35 Perth: Ar Ais Aris - 1pt Each-Way @ 4/1
Early money has come for Ksar d’Oudairies in the bumper at Perth, likely due to the subsequent performances of the horse he beat when winning an Irish point on debut, but it’s another couple of horses making their rules debuts, having started their career in that sphere, which appeal at the current prices.
Ar Ais Aris made a promising start to his career when finishing second at Boulta and looked the type who would be suitable for a bumper.
Having always raced prominently, he travelled powerfully to the front on the run to two out.
He came under pressure and looked a bit green between the final two fences and couldn’t hold off the late challenge of Old Coast Road while finishing ahead of Merry Away and Hi Ho Idaho, who have both shown a good level of ability under rules since.
It may be that the ground is a bit quicker than ideal for him, but they took him out at Hexham due to unsuitable ground, so if they feel it has ended up going too quick by this race then I expect they will do the same again anyway.
Any 4/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 4: 17:35 Perth - Ar Ais Aris - 1pt Each-Way
17:35 Perth: Effortless - 0.5pt Win @ 66/1
I can’t let Effortless go unbacked at a huge price in the same race given he looked to have some ability on his sole start in a point at Oldtown.
His jumping didn’t convince and he looked a bit green through the early stages of the race, but he travelled well into a challenging position on the long run to two out.
He ran green when shaken up and couldn’t go with the winner but he wasn’t beaten far in a dead-heat for third in the small field.
The winner has since joined Willie Mullins and will likely be towards the head of the market when making his debut for him.
I think Effortless may end up ideally wanting softer ground than he’s racing on today but the price is too big in a race of this quality and any 25/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 5: 17:35 Perth - Effortless - 0.5pt Win
17:40 Cork: Sursum Corda - 0.5pt Each-Way @ 50/1
Sursum Corda was in deep water on her debut at Leopardstown last season but she performed creditably and I think the market is overlooking her potential to build on that at Cork this evening.
She was held up at the back of the field before making some headway leaving the back straight.
Shaken along entering the home straight, she could never get near enough to make any sort of significant challenge but kept on well enough to only be beaten seven lengths.
The winner of that race was Italy who has since been placed in Group company and is rated 111, while the second won a Guineas trial earlier this month.
It may be that Sursum Corda wants a drop back in trip rather than going up to a mile but I think her low profile connections are causing her big price and she has the potential to be more competitive than the market is suggesting. Any 25/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 6: 17:40 Cork - Sursum Corda - 0.5pt Each-Way
18:59 Kilbeggan: Astley - 0.5pt Each-Way @ 33/1
Astley has generally been well beaten in various spheres, but he’s occasionally shown a good level of ability including when making his chasing debut at Down Royal last time and if he can build on that I think he could run better than his big price suggests.
He was back on decent ground that day and that seems to suit him as he also ran well in a bumper at Clonmel on similar ground last season. He was held up at the back of the field at Down Royal and it briefly looked like he might be struggling on the run to three out.
While he had made some ground, he still didn’t look to be going anywhere on the long run to two out but after jumping that fence he picked up for pressure and ran on well to finish third behind a couple rated in the 130s.
I think the longer trip will help Astley given how well he stayed on that day and the ground should be fine for him.
There is a slight worry that he showed a tendency to go out to the left a little at fences last time and there are some horses in here who may be classier than him but they have questions to answer so this isn’t the time to desert Astley.
Any 20/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 7: 18:59 Kilbeggan - Astley - 0.5pt Each-Way
19:37 Chepstow: Pink Eyed - 0.5pt Win @ 13/2
THEY have had a remarkable habit of being accurate when it comes to the Dunraven Bowl over the years and the late market may once again tell the story, but there are a couple who appeal at the current prices - including the holder whose name appears in the race title.
Pink Eyed Pedro was incredibly strong in the late market for this race last season and he delivered with a victory over Red Nika.
While he was pulled up in the Champion Hunter Chase at Stratford after that, he was still fairly close up jumping two out, but did not see out the longer trip.
He was beaten on his return to action at Chilfrome earlier this month, but he wasn’t given a remotely hard ride that day and the winner controlled a steady pace, so I’m expecting Pink Eyed Pedro to step forward from that.
I think the market may have overreacted to Stumps Or Slips beating Macklin at Exeter considering the latter didn’t go on the ground and he now has an 8lb penalty, while there are doubts over the form of Yippee Ki Yay’s second to Macklin at the same track.
Despite his advancing years, I think there’s too much between those two and Pink Eyed Pedro in the market and I expect James King will be a bit stronger in the saddle this evening than he was last time.
Any 11/2 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 8: 19:37 Chepstow - Pink Eyed Pedro - 0.5pt Win
19:37 Chepstow: Poppa Poutine - 0.5pt Win @ 28/1
In the same race, I think Poppa Poutine is a bit overpriced given the level of his best performances this season since joining Abbie Willmott.
He ran respectably on stable debut when third to St Cuthbert’s Cave at Lower Machen, only fading away on the run to two out.
His next two runs weren’t so encouraging, but he bounced back at Howick when chasing home Mount Sinai, who has some good form in Opens this season.
At the same track last time, Poppa Poutine was around five lengths behind Fier Jaguen when that horse came down at three out and Poppa Poutine ran into him and unseated the rider.
The ability he’s shown in those last two starts suggests Poppa Poutine can be more competitive in this race than the market suggests and his young jockey is perfectly capable for someone who can claim 7lb in a hunter chase.
There is a slight worry over the ground and Poppa Poutine’s jumping but he looks overpriced and any 16/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 9: 19:37 Chepstow - Poppa Poutine - 0.5pt Win
19:50 Fontwell: Bread And Butter - 0.5pt Win @ 28/1
Bread And Butter is the oldest in the field for this closing handicap hurdle at Fontwell, but he’s shown that he’s still got some life left in him and I think he could run well at a big price.
He didn’t run too badly behind Cap De Triomphe at Plumpton two starts ago and I thought the run last time was better than the margin beaten would suggest.
The winner was left alone in front that day and the others couldn’t get near him but some of those in behind have run well since.
Victory Shout finished second again behind the well handicapped Little Lady Lucy while Lake Tiberias finished second against another well handicapped rival in Modern Style. The fourth, Mancero, also finished second next time.
Bread And Butter was given a lot to do that day and I’m hoping they won’t be quite so patient with the tactics today.
He was dropped another 3lb for the latest run, which looks a bit generous to me, and any 20/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 10: 19:50 Fontwell - Bread And Butter - 0.5pt Win
19:50 Fontwell: Dontaskchris - 0.5pt Win @ 50/1
Dontaskchris is coming into this after a very long absence and it could be that he isn’t the horse he once was or that he will need the run after a break, but he showed enough promise when last seen at Huntingdon to suggest he could be better than a mark of 83.
He still looked a bit green that day and seemed to be going nowhere turning into the home straight but he finished strongly into fifth against some decent opposition.
He’s coming from an old school yard who will be bringing on their horses steadily so I wouldn’t be as surprised as the market if he was able to show more on handicap debut in a moderate race.
Any 33/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 11: 19:50 Fontwell - Dontaskchris - 0.5pt Win
2000 Guineas Ante-post: Needle Match - 0.5pt Win @ 50/1
The first four home in the Greenham are in the market for the 2000 Guineas, although Albert Einstein currently isn’t in the race, and it’s a surprise that the one who looked like he could be the best prospect from that race, is the biggest priced of the four.
It looked an ambitious decision to run Needle Match in the Greenham - given the quality of the maiden that he won at Newbury last season, but William Haggas reported that his work had been good.
Interest in the horse was piqued further after seeing the Trackside paddock analysis of him which read 'serious horse, immediately caught the eye. Ticks all the boxes, defined, big chest.' - yes, there are paddock analysts who don’t just say the favourite looks best, second favourite looks well, etc).
Needle Match then took the interest another step further when running a race full of promise.
He was a slowly away from the stalls slightly, carried left by Albert Einstein and raced a shade keenly under restraint at the back of the field in a fairly steadily run contest.
He was still there just over two furlongs out, before being switched towards the middle of the track and looked a bit green under pressure - he could never quite get on terms with the leaders, but was strong through the line in finishing fourth.
Given he was disadvantageously positioned, raced away from the near rail and this was only his second start, I thought that was a highly encouraging performance and one that suggested he could end up being the best prospect for the Guineas from this race.
It was surprising to me that his price hasn’t ended up shortening to a similar price to the three who finished ahead of him, particularly after being left in the race after yesterday’s forfeit stage.
It could be that it will be later in the season that Needle Match blossoms into a top quality three-year-old to match his looks, but I think the market is underestimating the chance of that happening in the short term in the 2000 Guineas and any 25/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' 2000 Guineas Ante-post: Needle Match - 0.5pt Win
Odds correct at time of publishing!
If you are following the latest horse racing tips, sign up at one of the best betting sites where you'll find exclusive offers.
You’ll find plenty of betting markets on horse racing today, along with a wide variety of other sports, at these trusted online betting sites, while you might even grab some free bets.
Also, follow our resident tipster James Boyle for his very latest tips and expert analysis ahead of the day's meetings in the UK, Ireland and around the world.
