Rhys Williams' Daily Horse Racing Tips: 3 Selections For Friday
The Panel are delighted to have Rhys Williams as part of our team of racing tipsters.
Rhys has been a racing analyst for over 10 years, working for At The Races and most recently as a tipster for Betfair where his tipping column had a 31% ROI over four and a half years.
He often focuses away from the front end of the market, finding angles that aren't evident to most and his profit and loss stands as -9.95 points from 17.5 points staked, with returns of 7.55 points.
Here is Rhys' tips for Friday, using the most up-to-date odds from the best horse racing betting sites.
14:25 Newbury: Marvel De Cerisy - 0.5pt Win @ 16/1
Marvel De Cerisy finished 18 lengths behind Lord Baddesley on stable debut last time, but he shaped better than that suggests and I think he can build on that in these circumstances.
He was held up and detached from the other pair from the off last time before making headway to be in touch leaving the back straight despite a couple of mistakes.
He was still travelling well going to three out but after another mistake, he didn’t find too much and wasn’t given a hard time once it was clear that he couldn’t catch the winner.
I think the softer ground today will be more suitable for Marvel De Cerisy.
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I expect he will be fitter for that run so has the potential to take a step forward from it.
There is a concern that he might just be a bit weak under pressure, but I think he’s a little overpriced in a race that could set up well for him and any 12/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 1: 14:25 Newbury - Marvel De Cerisy - 0.5pt Win
15:35 Newbury: Permis De Tuer - 0.5pt Win @ 40/1
Diamond Ri and Blue Carpet rightly head the market for this staying handicap hurdle, but there’s one at a big price who I can’t let go unbacked as he returns from a huge absence.
Permis De Tuer won a division of the Prix Finot back in September 2023 but hasn’t been seen since.
He stayed in France until early April 2024, and then had a short time with Tom George before joining Robert Walford in June 2024 and now makes his first start in Britain for that yard.
While there is clearly a big question over whether he retains the ability he showed in that debut victory, I think the quality of that run was a fair bit above his rating of 120 particularly considering the greenness that he showed that day.
This is a significant step up in trip for Permis De Tuer too but he looked a stayer when winning on debut so if he does still have that ability then I think the trip should suit.
It might be that he’s just not as good as he was due to whatever problems have kept him off the track for so long.
However, he’s too big a price to ignore given the ability he showed in his sole start and any 25/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 2: 15:35 Newbury - Permis De Tuer - 0.5pt Win
Dundalk 17:25: Arctic Steps 0.5pt win 33/1
Arctic Steps was a 66/1 winner earlier this year and I think she has a better chance of adding another big-priced success than the market suggests.
It’s easy for forgive her two runs over seven furlongs since then, as that trip doesn’t look to suit her.
She ran respectably on her stable debut for Paul Mulligan over five furlongs at the Curragh, when the race went wrong for her at the start.
Despite that, she finished two and a half lengths behind Steel Magnolia who reopposes today and is a much shorter price.
Arctic Steps is now running off a 4lb lower mark than she did that day and the return to five furlongs looks set to suit.
I’m also hopeful that with a better start they will revert to more positive tactics with her and the widest stall isn’t such an issue given the near side is usually favoured in the straight.
Any 16/1 or bigger appeals.
* Odds correct at time of publishing.
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