Rhys Williams' Daily Horse Racing Tips: 8 Selections For Thursday
The Panel are delighted to have Rhys Williams as part of our team of racing tipsters.
Rhys has been a racing analyst for over 10 years, working for At The Races and most recently as a tipster for Betfair where his tipping column had a 31% ROI over four and a half years.
He often focuses away from the front end of the market, finding angles that aren't evident to most.
His profit and loss stands at +3.05 points from 21.5 points staked, with returns of 24.55 points, thanks to tipping 33/1 shot Arctic Steps on Friday.
Here is Rhys' tips for Thursday, using the most up-to-date odds from the best horse racing betting sites.
12:30 Leicester: Pop's Folly - 0.5pts Each-Way @ 22/1
Pop’s Folly showed some promise in bumpers last season and I think he could build on that now up in trip for his hurdling debut.
He looked green on debut at Chepstow when making some late headway but was more professional next time at Exeter in very testing ground.
He travelled well turning into the home straight before being outpaced and then running on late to finish fifth behind some decent rivals.
This doesn’t look an overly strong race for his hurdling debut and the ground is in his favour so as long as he jumps adequately I think he could run better than his price suggests. Any 16/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 1: 12:30 Leicester - Pop's Folly - 0.5pts Each-Way
12:50 Market Rasen: Private Dancer - 1pt Win @ 2/1
Private Dancer is making his British debut in this juvenile hurdle having shown promise in two runs on the flat in France, and I think he has a strong chance of making a successful start in this sphere.
Both of those runs were over 1m7f at Dieppe and he was given a patient ride on debut, turning into the home straight with just one horse behind him.
He ran on well, without being given an overly hard time, to finish third while never looking like challenging the winner.
He was held up again on his second start, but this time moved closer approaching the home straight.
He found plenty for hands-and-heels pressure and hit the front with half a furlong to go but was picked off late by Dark Rockster.
Physically, Private Dancer looks the type to take to hurdling and the quality he showed in those two starts suggests he has a big chance in a race of this nature if he jumps well.
There is a slight concern that he wore a hood on both starts in France and was a shade keen in the second of them, but hopefully the sign of no hood today indicates that he’s looking more relaxed at home. Any 7/4 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 2: 12:50 Market Rasen - Private Dancer - 1pt Win
Read Up On The Latest horse racing betting sites
Why Not Check Out Our Dedicated Fast Racing Results Page
13:40 Wincanton: Indannya - 0.5pt Win @ 13/2
There’s been early market support for Indannya in this mares’ novices’ hurdle, but I think she’s still a little overpriced on her rules debut having run well on debut in a British point last season.
Her debut was over 2m4f at Buckfastleigh and her jumping didn’t help her cause, when the pace quickened on the final circuit with a couple of mistakes in the back straight putting her on the back foot.
She rallied well for pressure and nearly got upsides the winner approaching the last, but she ran green and lunged over the fence causing her and her rider to become unbalanced on landing and she could only finish third.
The winner of that race has since finished second in a bumper and I think this was a good performance from Indannya considering the ground and momentum lost at the fences.
Hopefully, she will jump better over these smaller obstacles and can continue the good start to Chester Williams’ career. Any 6/1 or bigger appeals.
14:10 Wincanton: Holkham Hall - 0.5pt Win @ 33/1
Holkham Hall hasn’t been seen under rules for a long time, but he’s shown ability in points since then and I think he’s overpriced on his handicap debut.
He received his handicap mark on the back of a run in a beginners chase and two novice hurdles in 2022, not being competitive in any of them.
Since then, he’s shown some ability in British points and put together three good runs in the 2023/24 season, ending that with a victory at Upcott Cross.
He had a slow start to last season but showed more when dead-heating at Trebudannon and he was still travelling well, when slipping up turning the final bend at Upcott Cross on his latest start.
I think the ability he showed at his best in those runs suggests he could be better than a mark of 76 on his return to racing under rules and the right-handed track is in his favour.
There is a slight concern that he can race a bit keenly and he might be one of those horses who comes alive later in the season, based on what he did in points but he looks overpriced in the circumstances and any 20/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 4: 14:10 Wincanton - Holkham Hall - 0.5pt Win
14:10 Wincanton: Vengeance - 0.5pt Win 50/1
At an even bigger price, I can’t let Vengeance go unbacked now that he’s returning to a far more suitable test on his second start after a long absence.
He ran respectably off 99 in a staying handicap hurdle at Ascot two starts ago but was off the track for 593 days, before making his stable debut for Jimmy Frost over two miles at Exeter last month.
Unsurprisingly, he was outpaced from halfway and wasn’t given a hard time as he dropped away.
He’s now back to a more suitable test and I think it’s notable that a tongue tie goes on, so maybe they learned something about him from the Exeter run.
It may turn out that he’s just not much good anymore, but I thought the 5lb drop for Exeter was generous and any 25/1 or bigger appeals.
15:10 Wincanton: Ted The Thief - 1pt Each-Way @ 5/1
Special John is a short-priced favourite for this handicap chase. I thought it was a good race for the grade that he won at Exeter.
It seemed like he was waiting for rivals in front late on, but he was always very fit for that run so at the prices I’m going to take him on with a couple.
The first of those is Ted The Thief who has the potential to be quite a bit better than his mark given the ability he showed in points.
He showed a hint of that for the first time under rules on his latest start at Fontwell, where I thought the trip was on the sharp side for him and the way the race panned out didn’t suit this strong stayer.
The ability he showed when finishing third to Red Acres Georgie on his final start in an Irish point and in three starts in British points for Josh Newman, suggests he could have some room off this mark and the step up in trip is likely to suit him based on what he showed in those runs.
There is a slight concern over his jumping going this way round, but I think he should be closer to the favourite in the market and any 4/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 6: 15:10 Wincanton - Ted The Thief - 1pt Each-Way
15:10 Wincanton: Sheeka Supreme - 0.5pt Win 40/1
The other horse of interest at the prices is the outsider of the whole field - Sheeka Supreme.
While I was amazed at the price they paid for her after winning on her third start in Irish points, it’s also been surprising just how little she’s shown under rules so far.
However, it seemed far better was expected at Windsor last time, when cheekpieces were put on but she resembled a bucking bronco after the tape went up and duly pulled up.
There is a chance that she might repeat such antics today, but she’s not as far out of the handicap today.
A right-handed track is likely to suit her given how she jumped at Ffos Las and Newton Abbot. Any 20/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 7: 15:10 Wincanton - Sheeka Supreme - 0.5pt Win
20:30 Chelmsford: Queen Sansa - 0.5pt Win @ 16/1
Queen Sansa was an eyecatcher at Wolverhampton two starts ago.
I think the market is overlooking the chance that she can break her maiden in the closing race at Chelmsford.
She was travelling well approaching the home straight at Wolverhampton, but her path was blocked at every turn after and she could only finish seventh.
She was an awful trip out wide through the first half of the race at Southwell last time, so that can be excused and hopefully she can get a better one this evening from stall two. Any double-figure prices appeal.
Rhys' Selection 8: 20:30 Chelmsford - Queen Sansa - 0.5pt Win
* Odds correct at time of publishing.
If you are following the latest horse racing tips, sign up at one of the best betting sites where you'll find exclusive offers.
You’ll find plenty of betting markets on horse racing today, along with a wide variety of other sports, at these trusted online betting sites, while you might even grab some free bets.
Also, follow our resident tipster James Boyle for his very latest tips and expert analysis ahead of the day's meetings in the UK, Ireland and around the world.
