Runcorn By-Election Odds: Reform UK Tipped To Beat Labour In Runcorn And Helsby

UK betting sites believe Reform UK are frontrunners to win the upcoming Runcorn and Helsby by-election and pinch the seat off Labour.

Polls have Nigel Farage’s Reform party three points ahead of Labour in the race for the seat, which Mike Amesbury vacated after he pled guilty to assault.

Runcorn and Helsby is the only by-election coming this spring, with 1,757 council seats up for grabs in local elections that will also have Labour worried.

Reform are targeting a swathe of local council seats, but winning Runcorn and Helsby would be the icing on the cake.

Sarah Pochin – a former Conservative candidate who failed to win a seat in Bolton at the 2017 election – is running for Reform. 

Winning here would mark a major moment for the new party that has ridden a wave of popularity since last summer’s general election.

Runcorn By-Election Latest Odds

Pochin’s biggest rival is former Cheshire council deputy leader Karen Shore. 

She has the unenviable task of defending a 14,000-vote majority in a seat that seems to be swinging away from Labour.

The bookies reckon it’s a two-horse race, with Conservative candidate Sean Houlston priced way behind the others.

Runcorn By-Election Betting

The latest Runcorn odds suggest Reform UK will win the May 1 by-election. BetVictor place Reform at 4/7 to take the seat, odds that carry a 63.6% probability.

Labour are down at 5/4 (44.4% probability) on betting apps. That difference in probability is greater than the gap in the polls, which suggests Reform are on 36 points, with Labour three points behind.

Interestingly, 17% of those polled in Runcorn and Helsby say they still don’t know who they’ll vote for. That uncertainty means Labour are still in with a chance of victory. 

As the campaign unfolds over April, it’s likely to come down to a coin toss for who wins the seat.

Another poll suggests Reform lead Labour by 40 points to 35 – still within a margin of error, although it paints a strong picture for Farage’s party.

Political betting sites are keeping tabs on the polls, but they also have to factor in betting activity when setting their odds. 

Around 53% of all bets back Reform to win, while Labour boasts just 36% of the market. That weight towards Reform is sinking Pochin’s odds, making her the clear favourite.

Meanwhile, only 4% of bettors have backed the Tories to win here, at odds of around 20/1.

Who Will Win Runcorn By-Election?

Runcorn and Helsby is a new constituency formed at the 2024 UK election. 

It’s made up of three older constituencies, which generally leaned Labour, although two voted for David Cameron's Conservatives.

The seat looks likely to split between Reform and Labour voters, with tactical voting possible. 

This could help Labour if Green and Lib Dem voters opt to side with Shore, with an eye to keeping Reform out.

However, the wave of support for Reform could bulldoze any tactical efforts.

This by-election won’t be fought on local issues. The country’s economic woes and social divides are magnified on Runcorn and Helsby. 

Voters are effectively being asked to mark Labour’s homework after a year in office.

Voting for Reform won’t significantly change British politics overnight, but it could set a trend for further seats to swing Farage’s way in years to come. 

It will also focus Starmer’s mind, leading him to potentially swing further to the right in an effort to appease disaffected voters.

Make no mistake, the Conservatives aren’t winning here. Their odds have ballooned and they’re unlikely to enjoy any significant air time in this by-election.

Centrists fled the Conservatives for Labour, while those at the extreme right and left of politics are willing to give Reform a chance.

This by-election isn’t about left and right. It’s centre versus periphery. The centre isn’t delivering, which is why Reform have attracted support from across the political divide.

* Reminder: These are hypothetical odds provided by industry experts.