Trump Rattled As Next President Odds Finally Put Biden Level
President Trump is facing defeat in November’s US Presidential Election in 2020 as polls swing in favour of Joe Biden to take over the White House later this year.
For the first time since betting commenced, political betting sites have dropped Trump as the firm favourite to win the election.
Since the Democrats began their mission to find their candidate to take on Trump, the current president has dominated the betting markets.
Trump has been firm favourite to win the 2020 US election while the Democrats source their candidate. When he won the election in 2016 he was around 3/1 to secure a second term.
Odds Finally Reflect Polls
His price fell to a record low of 1/2 with Paddy Power back in February – before the US went into lockdown over the coronavirus outbreak.
But in the proceeding four months Trump’s odds have widened and Biden has now come in from 30/1 back in February to evens (1/1).
For the first time, the Democratic candidate is now head-to-head with Trump in the US politics odds to win the election. Yet Biden has consistently led the US election polls for the past six months.
As data from Real Clear Politics shows, Biden has never been behind Trump in the nationwide polls. The closest Trump has got to his prospective election rival was in January 2020, where Biden’s ratings dropped to 48.2 and Trump hit 44.2.
Fast-forward to the present and Biden has a +5.9 point lead over Trump. So why are the betting odds only now catching up?
Why Odds Lag Behind
One of the main reasons odds often lag behind the polls is that they also reflect the weight of people voting. Data from across the UK’s biggest bookmakers show over 50% of bets are backing Trump for the White House, which keeps his price down.
Likewise, Biden has so far only received around 10% of all bets on this market. This could well change in the coming months.
Bookmakers and pollsters were stunned in 2016 when Trump beat Hilary Clinton to the White House. A more cautious approach to political projections and subsequent market pricing is being deployed.
Trump Tweet Betting
As for the current incumbent, Ladbrokes have opened a novel book on what Trump will tweet first at the start of each day.
The president is notorious for his controversial social media strategy, which often flip-flops between targets.
Ladbrokes have scoured Trump’s recent tweet history to identify likely subjects of his ire. These range from ‘Terrorists’ and ‘Violence’ to ‘Fake News’ and ‘Virus’.
Naturally, Trump is never too far away from thinking about the election, and odds on him mentioning ‘Sleepy Joe’ in his first tweet of the day appear to fluctuate between 2/1 and 3/1.
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