UK General Election Betting: Odds, Tips & Analysis
The next UK election isn’t scheduled until the summer of 2029 – but now’s the time to get ahead and develop your political betting strategy.
Labour may be sitting on a large majority but it’s a shallow one. Reform UK’s rise to prominence and a reconfigured Conservative party makes it hard for betting sites to predict who will win the next election.
The 2029 UK election odds suggest it’ll be a hung parliament once the votes are in, with Reform potentially winning the most seats.
However, there’s still a long way to go before Sir Keir Starmer, Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage go up against each other – and there’s no guarantee the three leaders will even be in their jobs.
If you’re new to politics betting then this UK election guide is designed to help you untangle the odds and create a winning strategy.
Political Betting Tips - Interpreting The Latest UK Election Odds
Political betting sites set their election odds the day after the last election is held.
Usually the winning party is priced as the heavy favourite and stays that way until at least midway through the parliament.
Not so this time. Labour are already underdogs to win the next election despite being in office for just over a year.
You can read more about why that’s the case in our Keir Starmer exit date analysis.
If you’re new to political betting then below are a few tips on how to bet on the next UK election:
Follow the News – We’re all guilty of staying in our own bubble and not fully appreciating the other side of politics. Well, if you want to accurately bet on the UK election then you need to understand the entire news spectrum.
Stay clued up with the latest developments in Parliament and across the country. Scandals can take weeks to develop, while public mood moves slowly.
Whether it’s accessing news on TV, on social media, or Gambling.com's politics news, be sure to have a broad range of sources.
Track the Polls – The polls are the best indication of what will happen at an election. A year into Labour’s rule of the Commons and the government is floundering in the polls. Reform are riding high, while the Tories are struggling to get above 17 points.
Keep an eye on the polls – particularly poll trackers. They should coincide with the latest politics odds, so you can time your bets to the perfect moment.
Watch the Odds – Equally as important as the polls are the latest odds, which ideally run in par with public opinion.
However, bookies can sometimes provide a more accurate reflection of an election than the polls.
They were more accurate than the polls when predicting Donald Trump’s win in 2016, the Brexit vote and the 2017 UK election result.
Watch the odds closely and consider whether they offer value compared to the polls.
You might find it’s worth backing a party early, rather than waiting for an election to be called.
Best UK Political Betting Strategy
Coming up with a general election betting strategy for the UK isn't easy because there are so many players at work.
Unlike in America where an election is effectively a binary choice, the UK has numerous parties that combine to create a multitude of outcomes.
It means that experienced politics betting analysts won't just stick a tenner on the Tories to win the next election and be done with it.
Instead, they're looking at the wide range of markets bookmakers offer on politics.
- 2029 Election - Will there be a majority at the 2029 election or will the UK have a coalition?
- Size of Majority - What will the size of the winning party's majority be?
- Regional Betting - Many punters prefer to bet on regional politics even during the election, such as most seats in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
- Constituency Betting - It's not a surprise that bookmakers usually offer odds on specific contestable constituencies during an election.
The above bet types all require unique strategies to tackle them convincingly. But the overarching strategy for any general election betting activity is to get in there before everyone else does.
That's because in ante-post betting, time is to your advantage. Placing a bet now not only means you lock in a good price, but also provides you with the opportunity to cash out or bet against your wager when the odds shift.
Betting early is crucial to any strategy because the political odds move all the time. Over weeks and months the change can be significant.
Labour were 4/6 (60%) favourites to win the 2029 election in the days after their 2024 triumph. But 10 months later they were trailing to Reform, who came from 4/1 to lead the odds.
Odds can shift in shorter time periods, too. Remember in 2017 when Theresa May was flying high in the polls and called a snap election?
Over five weeks the odds dramatically swung away from the Tories - and they only just held on to power thanks to the DUP propping them up.
The best strategy is almost always to go early on political bets – especially if the big contenders are priced wide.
In 2029, it’s likely the Conservatives will have regained some of their losses sustained after the 2024 vote and be polling higher than 17%.
So, perhaps this is a good time to back the Tories at historically-high odds.
Latest UK Election Polls And Predictions
Right now the UK election polling data reads as follows:
- Reform 28%
- Labour 21%
- Conservatives 17%
- Lib Dems 16%
- Greens 10%
- SNP 3%
- Plaid 1%
(*YouGov polling, correct as of August 18 2025)
These numbers are wildly different to what happened in the 2024 general election, when Labour won a storming majority. A year on and Reform UK are the big winners, with a large lead in the polls.
Labour’s 33.7% vote share in 2024 has fallen to 21% – a dramatic plunge after Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves refused to turn on the spending taps once in government.
And the Tories? 2024 was their worst election result in history with just 23.7% of the vote. Their poll numbers have fallen under Kemi Badenoch to 17 points.
If an election were to be held tomorrow, the polls suggest Reform would win the most seats (backed up by bookmakers’ odds of 6/5) but may fall short of a majority.
Were there to be a hung parliament then Farage would have to seek support from another party to get over the line.
However, it’s also possible that Reform edge above 325 seats and are able to form a government.
UK Prime Minister Betting Odds
Right now, the odds suggest Nigel Farage will be the UK’s next prime minister. This is based largely on two factors:
- Starmer is not going to call a snap election with Labour’s poll rating so poor
- There is no obvious Labour successor to Starmer right now
With no snap election in sight, the bookies usually gravitate towards the party leader who is ahead in the polls. That’s Farage (5/2) by seven points.
The Brexit architect divides the nation but there are enough Reform supporters right now to give him the edge.
After Farage, there are three Labour cabinet ministers who could, feasibly, succeed Starmer. These are:
- Angela Rayner – 6/1
- Wes Streeting – 7/1
- Yvette Cooper – 7/1
All three could resurrect Labour’s falling reputation but they’re very close to Starmer right now. Too close to mount a leadership challenge when the party’s poll ratings are so unstable.
Angela Rayner is the most left-leaning of the trio but her popularity has taken a hit recently. Yvette Cooper has the experience to lead Labour but may lack credibility with New Labour sceptics.
Health secretary Wes Streeting is arguably best positioned because his sole remit is to improve the health service.
He can stay away from reputationally damaging issues such as the economy, immigration and international relations.
Conservative leader Badenoch is then next in the UK prime minister odds, alongside her adversary Robert Jenrick (both 10/1).
Next General Election UK Political Betting Markets
When it comes to UK election betting, you might be mistaken for thinking there's only one bet type: who will win the election.
But as we've seen, there are scores of different markets available. Here are some to keep an eye out for, especially if you want to bet over the long term:
Year of Next General Election - The UK government can call a snap election if two-thirds of the House of Commons agrees. Labour’s big win in 2024 means there isn’t a scheduled election until the summer of 2029.
However, the government could always go to the polls early, as Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives did in 2024.
Reform UK Vote Share - Reform earned four million votes in the 2024 election but collected just a handful of seats.
That will be very different this time around. Farage’s party has attracted both Labour and Conservative voters in recent months and their poll ratings suggest a high vote share is coming again.
Most Seats - Perhaps the simplest UK election political betting market is to focus on which party wins the most seats.
Traditionally it’s a toss-up between Labour and the Conservatives, but Reform’s entry into frontline politics makes it a three-way contest now.
Starmer Exit Date - How long will Keir Starmer last as UK prime minister? Not long, if you believe the betting odds.
Political betting sites reckon the Labour leader could be for the chop before the next election, even though there’s no clear successor.
Badenoch Exit Date - Kemi Badenoch doesn’t appear likely to fare much better than Starmer during this parliament.
Online betting sites reckon the Conservative party leader will also face the boot before the next election.
Constituency Voting - Betting sites launch their constituency odds ahead of general elections, with punters able to bet on the outcome of 650 seats.
Which Party Will Win The Majority In The Next UK Election?
This is the question everyone is asking, even though Labour are only a year into government.
The polls and political betting odds suggest Reform UK will win the next election. They might not win a majority but they could be the larger party in a coalition.
Next it’s Labour, who have fallen to around 21 points in the polls. It’s hard to see how they recover to the 35+ points a party usually needs to win a majority.
However, Starmer and his chancellor Reeves still have time to turn things around.
The Conservative party can’t really sink much lower than 17 points and some polls suggest the Liberal Democrats are dangerously close to overtaking them.
Badenoch is Evens with the bookies to lose her job in 2026. If she can’t shift the dial soon then she’ll be replaced.
The likes of the Lib Dems, Greens and Scottish National Party could influence the next election but Reform’s surge means the betting is focused on a three-horse race.
Most punters assume the Tories will resurrect themselves before the next election, while Labour can’t get much worse either.
The key to answering who wins the next election is this: will Labour and the Tories recover by regaining supporters from Reform, or will they pull backers from other parties?
If it’s the former, the UK election becomes a close contest. If Reform’s support holds steady, Farage is looking at government.
When Is The Next UK Election?
The next UK election isn’t scheduled to take place until the summer of 2029. Under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022, parliament is dissolved every five years and a new election held.
Of course, there could be a snap election, where the prime minister advises the King to dissolve parliament. This could happen at any time and is usually jumped on by opposition parties.
Other UK General Election Tips:
