Merriman: Chiefs Don’t Have What It Takes To Be The Team They Were
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Former NFL Pro Bowler Shawne Merriman had another successful week, going 10-3 with his NFL betting picks in Week 7.
He’s back this week to select winners and discuss the major storylines this week, including the Green Bay Packers-Arizona Cardinals showdown, the Chiefs' struggles and the emergence of the Cincinnati Bengals.
Kansas City’s Struggles
Gambling.com: We’ve discussed the Kansas City Chiefs struggles this season. They’ve still yet to turn it around. What issues stick out to you with them?
Shane Merriman: Outside of them not playing the run, I just think that people figured them out. As great as Patrick Mahomes is, it’s only so long you can keep up at that pace and be that explosive before people figure you out. The second thing is that they’re just not blocking. They’re not blocking for the passing game, not blocking for Patrick and he’s getting hit too many times. And they can’t run the ball. Right now, they’re in shambles, man. It’s not looking good for them for the rest of the season.
GDC: What do you think needs to change with the Chiefs, and do you believe they can return to the contender they were?
SM: They can. I just don’t think it's going to happen this year. You know, they're gonna have to spend in the offseason. But look, you pay Patrick Mahomes half a billion dollars over a certain period of time. And you don’t have the best blockers for him; they’re not protecting their investment. Patrick Mahomes is only going to take you so far by himself.
The season isn’t over and anything can happen, but even if they so happened to squeeze their way into the playoffs, which I don’t think they will because of the division, the Chargers and the Raiders are just a better team than they are. But even if they did, there’s no way they are going far. They’re just going to get beat in the playoffs. They’re going home in the first round. They don’t have what it takes to be the team that they were.
Surging Cincinnati Bengals
GDC: The Bengals are surprising people, now 5-2 after beating the Ravens 41-17. What has impressed you about them?
SM: It's one of these things, and I've seen it happen before, when teams get better in a division, right? They can only get beat up for so long before they just get better. We're seeing a drop-off with the Pittsburgh Steelers, and in my opinion, Ben Roethlisberger, this should be it. He shouldn’t be thinking of playing another season after this. The Steelers now are going to be where the Bengals were in the rebuilding phase.
GDC: How much does Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow and wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase’s familiarity with playing at LSU help translate to the NFL?
SM: It’s everything. Once you've got somebody’s movement and timing down, you know how guys play and what they're capable of doing. You really can't put a word or how important it is that they played in college together because it just makes everything easier.
King Henry
GDC: You mentioned how much of a problem Tennessee running back Derrick Henry could be for teams. We saw it again with the Titans beating the Chiefs. Do you see them as an AFC contender?
SM: They might be the scariest team right now because of the way Derrick Henry is running the ball. When you're running a ball like that, it opens up everything. First of all, your clock management and you're eating up most of the clock. It opens up the deep ball because now people are stepping up in a box.
Derrick Henry right now is physically imposing his will on the defense in NFL. Physically imposing. And when somebody is that good and he's averaging 120-plus yards a game, and you know he's going to get the ball and you can't stop it, that is demoralizing for a defense. There's nothing worse in the game of football than when you know somebody is going to run the ball and you can't stop them. That is the single-handed worst feeling that you can have as a defensive player.
Young QBs in Flux
GDC: The Bears are a mess. Everyone is talking about the quarterback situation with rookie Justin Fields having five turnovers in the 38-3 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. What would you do with Fields?
SM: I think (head coach) Matt Nagy is probably gone after this year. I would put (backup quarterback Andy) Dalton in. Do not destroy my young rookie’s confidence while they are trying to rebuild. I said it in Week 1; I’m against making rookie quarterbacks get out there and go through it when they don’t have to. Andy Dalton is a qualified quarterback. You can win some games with him, but if you want to get the rookie in there while he’s struggling with a coach that’s possibly not even going to be there after this year, you’re just asking for it.
GDC: There’s now talk of Deshaun Watson returning to the Miami Dolphins or Carolina Panthers. What kind of impact could he have?
SM: I’ve always said this, I didn’t think Tua Tagovailoa is the answer in Miami. I just didn't see it. I didn't see him going that high in the draft. I was shocked when he got picked that early. And I think with Deshaun Watson, if it happens, he is going to be a much better fit. He's going to do a great deal for that team because of the deep ball and stuff like that. Whenever his legal situation gets figured out, he’s going to be the answer down in Miami if that happens.
Plus and Minus of Thursday Night Football
GDC: The game of the week is on a Thursday, with the Green Bay Packers visiting the Arizona Cardinals. How difficult is it as a player to get your body ready for a quick turnaround after playing on a Sunday?
SM: I tell you, the later I got in my career and we started having those Thursday games. We played a Sunday game and then a Thursday night game against the Miami Dolphins. And I did not feel good until I woke up that Thursday morning. I didn’t feel normal from the game before until then. Football is a little different now and so forth, but you have to get mentally prepared on a short week. You spend most of your time getting healthy and taking mental reps as opposed to doing anything physically to get ready for the Thursday night game. It’s a mental rep week.
GDC: Do the few extra days off after the Thursday game help recuperate?
SM: Big time. That’s the only plus you get out of that. That’s the biggest plus that you get is a couple of extra days to heal up and get your body back again.
Who Wins This Week
Here are Shawne’s picks for the week. Moneyline odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals
GDC: How much of an impact is it that Green Bay wide receiver Davante Adams is likely to miss the game?
SM: That’s gonna hurt big. If Davante was playing, I would have picked against Arizona. I would have picked Green Bay to upset them, but I can’t if Davante Adams is not there. No way.
GDC: Does that change a defense’s game plan when you don’t have to worry about a key player who is ruled out?
SM: You get an extra man out there on the defensive side of the ball. You don’t have to roll coverage. You don’t have to keep a safety all the time over the top. I believe Arizona can play one-on-one coverage against anybody else. I don’t think Green Bay has anyone deserving of a double team, so that gives you an extra man on the field.
GDC: You’ve been high on the Cardinals defense this year, specifically the defensive line. Green Bay’s offensive line has struggled at times this year, so how do you see that matchup playing out?
SM: It’s gonna be brutal. I think Aaron Rodgers is going to do a lot of running, and hopefully he comes out of this game healthy.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
SM: I’m picking the Falcons. I’m watching (Carolina quarterback) Sam Darnold. These next couple of games for Sam Darnold are going to decide whether he will be a backup quarterback for the rest of his career.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
SM: I’m taking the Bills. This is how you get your confidence back (after the loss to Tennessee). You get back into the groove of things playing a team like the Dolphins.
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears
SM: San Francisco is so banged up right now. I think the Bears get after (San Francisco quarterback) Jimmy Garoppolo, so going with the Bears.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
SM: Watch out for (Pittsburgh defensive lineman) T.J. Watt in that one and Melvin Ingram. But I’m taking the Browns. I think they will run the ball and pound them and allow (Cleveland quarterback) Case Keenum to be a game manager.
Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions
SM: I’ll take the Eagles in a close one.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
SM: The Colts are on a little streak right now. This is another tough one. I’m going to stick with the Colts right now because they are hot.
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets
SM: I’m taking the Bengals. I think that’s going to be a slugfest.
Los Angeles Rams at Houston Texans
SM: I’m going with the Rams.
New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers
SM: I think it’s going to be a closer game, but I’m taking the Chargers. If everybody’s healthy, it should be a guaranteed win for the Chargers.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks
SM: I’m taking the Jaguars. They got their first win and now they’re going against a team that is struggling right now. It’s the perfect time for them.
Washington Football Team at Denver Broncos
SM: I’ll take the Broncos. It’ll help them that they’re playing the Washington Football Team. They’re not playing well right now.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
SM: I’m taking the Buccaneers. I think they’re going to light them up.
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings
SM: I’ll take the Cowboys. I think they put up 35-plus points.
New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs
SM: The Chiefs have to respond. I’m taking the Chiefs. They have to be tired of looking at the media and seeing them say they’re done for the season. They have to get one. This is a do-or-die game for them, to be honest. I can’t even imagine the media that comes after them if they lose this game. They have to know it’s a must-win.
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