‘Big Three’ Favored In 2026 Kentucky Derby
With 152nd Kentucky Derby only weeks away, three thoroughbreds have emerged as the early favorites.
The Run for the Roses is set for May 2 at Churchill Downs in Louisville.
According to Nick Tammaro, the new morning-line oddsmaker at Churchill Downs, the Big Three are:
- Arkansas Derby winner Renegade
- Florida Derby winner Commandment
- Blue Grass winner Further Ado
As the Courier-Journal in Louisville noted, Tammaro expects to make “Renegade a favorite around 4-1 odds, with Commandment and Further Ado to follow between 5-1 and 8-1 odds.”
During the draw on April 25, Tammaro will announce the morning line for the expected 20-horse field.
One development that could impact the morning line is that jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. has chosen to ride Renegade in the Kentucky Derby. Ortiz rode Renegade and Further Ado in to their recent wins. He also was aboard Commandment “in three of his first four races before the Florida Derby,” the Courier-Journal reported.
“The morning line is one person’s prediction of how the public is going to bet, days in advance and no advantage of who’s hot and who’s not, track bias, anything like that,” Tammaro said. “It’s as much of an educated guess as an individual can make.”
In its own recent list of contenders, the Courier-Journal placed The Puma at No. 3, moving Further Ado down to fourth.
In April, the Kentucky Derby draw joins the 2026 NFL draft as high-profile events at the end of the month. The NFL draft is set for April 23-25 in Pittsburgh.
From May through the first week of June, the Triple Crown races will continue to generate interest among fans and bettors.
2026 Triple Crown Races
Below are the dates for the 2026 Triple Crown races.
Sovereignty, Journalism Square Off Again
It remains to be seen whether the 2026 Triple Crown will match the drama of last year’s three races. While the ‘Big Three’ are early favorites this year, the Kentucky Derby and other two Triple Crown races could produce surprises.
In 2025, Sovereignty emerged as the dominant 3-year-old horse.
During the 151st Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs, Sovereignty passed favored Journalism down the stretch to win. Sovereignty did not run in the Preakness, which Journalism won, but returned for the Belmont Stakes. Journalism finished second in the Belmont.
This year, Sovereignty and Journalism will face off again April 18 at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas. The G2 Oaklawn Handicap features Sovereignty (4-5), Journalism (5-2), White Abarrio (7-2) and and three other horses.
Triple Crown Winners
The last horse to win the Triple Crown was Justify in 2018.
Here are the 13 Triple Crown-winning horses:
- Sir Barton (1919)
- Gallant Fox (1930)
- Omaha (1935)
- War Admiral (1937)
- Whirlaway (1941)
- Count Fleet (1943)
- Assault (1946)
- Citation (1948)
- Secretariat (1973)
- Seattle Slew (1977)
- Affirmed (1978)
- American Pharoah (2015)
- Justify (2018).
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