Who Should You Bet on at This Weekend's NASCAR Race at New Hampshire?
NASCAR driver Erik Jones continues to cash at restrictor plate races.
Jones ran with the leaders for the majority of last week's race and was in contention for the win before a last-lap caution forced him to settle for a fourth-place finish, cashing out his top five (+450) and top 10 (+160).
As long as his odds continue to be high at restrictor plate races, he will be worth a look in the future at Talladega and Daytona.
New Hampshire Up Next
Now NASCAR heads to the flat New Hampshire circuit for Sunday’s Ambetter 301. It’s the first race for the NextGen car at New Hampshire.
Still, we might have some past data to go off of considering the Cup Series has been at four flat tracks already this season: Phoenix, Martinsville, Richmond and World Wide Technology Raceway.
We've seen four different winners at each of those tracks: Chase Briscoe (Phoenix), William Byron (Martinsville), Denny Hamlin (Richmond) and Joey Logano (World Wide Technology Raceway).
Each of those winners is worth a look considering their performances on a flat track, and here’s why I’m targeting one specifically.
Denny Hamlin to Win +850 BetMGM Sportsbook
It’s not as if Hamlin dominated to earn his win at Richmond. A positive strategy move allowed him to finish the race on tires that were 30 laps fresher than the rest of the field, allowing him to chase down William Byron and take the lead with five laps left.
It was Hamlin’s first top 10 of the season and fourth win at the track.
Sure, he was on a better strategy, but the final stretch run at Richmond highlighted his talent at these types of tracks, and now he heads to a circuit that has been one of the strongest of his career.
New Hampshire is where Hamlin has his third-best average finishing position at any track. His 9.6 finishing average also leads all active drivers, while his three career wins trail only Kevin Harvick (four).
Hamlin’s recent form at New Hampshire has been strong, too. He’s finished in the top 10 in each of the last three races, including two runner-up finishes in 2019 and 2020.
Hamlin has also shown strong pace at the other flat tracks, qualifying second at Phoenix and sixth at World Wide Technology Raceway.
But drama with Ross Chastain resulted in Hamlin’s race being compromised when Chastin sent Hamlin into the wall and damaged his car, relegating him to a 28th-place finish.
Another run-in with Chastain could potentially ruin another race for Hamlin, who was also wrecked by Chastain in Sunday’s Atlanta race. It remains unclear if Hamlin will now seek retaliation, but it’s at least worth considering since another incident with Chastain could limit Hamlin’s chances of winning this weekend.
“Everyone has different tolerance levels and as you all know, I’ve reached my peak,” Hamlin said in a post-race interview. “It all works itself out in the end.”
Revenge could be on Hamlin’s mind, but it shouldn’t deter too much from making him one of the stronger drivers to back this weekend.
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