Kane vs Salah: Who Will Win The Premier League Golden Boot?

Charlie Mullan

April 8th, 2021

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The race to become champions of England seems certain to end with Manchester City winning their third title in four seasons but the battle to win this season's Golden Boot award looks set to go all the way to the final whistle of the final round of games on May 23.

The contest has turned into a two-horse race with Tottenham's Harry Kane fighting it out with Liverpool's Mohamed Salah to finish the season as the Premier League's leading scorer.

Both players have eight matches left to play and unless their goals dry up or a player from the chasing pack ends the season with a flurry of goals, Salah or Kane will be presented with their third Premier League Golden Boot.

Heading into this weekend's round of fixtures, Kane leads the list with 19 goals while Salah is just one behind. Of Kane's 19 goals, 10 have come at home while seven of Salah's 18 goals have been scored at Anfield.

Of course there is a chance the two marksmen finish the season on the same number of goals and the award will be shared just as it was at the end of the 2018/19 season when Salah was joined by Liverpool team-mate Sadio Mane and Arsenal's Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang on 22 goals.

Gambling.com has analysed the remaining fixtures Salah and Kane have ahead of them and looked at their records against each team to find out which player has the better chance of completing their hat-trick of Golden Boot awards.

Salah faces Aston Villa this weekend hoping to add to the two goals he scored in arguably the season's most stunning result so far when Dean Smith's side won 7-2 at Villa Park. They were the first goals Salah has scored in three games against the Villans.

Mohamed Salah Goal Stats

• Total: 25 goals in 39 games - 0.64 goals per game
• Predicted goals total this season - 23

Next on the list for Salah is a trip to Elland Road to face Leeds United who look set to finish in the top half of the table in their first season back in the top flight after 16 years.

In the reverse fixture at Anfield, Salah scored a hat-trick as Liverpool won 4-3 in what was Leeds' first fixture back in the Premier League.

The following five fixtures for Salah are against teams he has failed to score against this season.

However, in the past against Newcastle, Salah has scored four times in seven games and will be hoping to score against the Magpies for the first time in three games.

A trip to Old Trafford follows for Salah who has never scored at the Theatre of Dreams in his career and for all the goals he has accumulated over the years, Salah has just one goal in six league games against Manchester United. The Egyptian did score twice in an FA Cup tie earlier this season, but his side lost 3-2.

Salah's eyes will light up when he lines up against Southampton at Anfield on May 8 knowing he has scored seven times in the seven league games he has played against the Saints.

Liverpool's following two games after Southampton are away at West Brom and Burnley who have contained Salah pretty well in past meetings.

Salah's Premier League Tallies:

• 2017/18 - 32 (Golden Boot winner)
• 2018/19 - 22 (Golden Boot winner)
• 2019/20 - 19
• 2020/21 - 18
• 91 goals in 137 Premier League games (0.66 goals per game)

One goal in three league outings against the Baggies is a disappointing return while Burnley have kept the Egyptian without a goal in his last five games since he scored his one and only goal against the Clarets in September 2017.

If Salah is still in with a chance of ending the season as the league's top scorer, he will appreciate Liverpool's final fixture at home to Crystal Palace.

Salah came off the bench to score two late goals in a 7-0 win at Selhurst Park just before Christmas. It took his total of goals against the Eagles to six in his last six starts. But will he score enough goals to overtake Kane?

Kane is currently eighth in the league's all-time scoring list and needs two goals to pass Robbie Fowler in seventh place.

Thierry Henry and Frank Lampard in sixth and fifth might be out of reach for Kane this season, but their respective 13 and 15 goal advantages might not last long.

And if Kane stays fit and remains in the Premier League, Alan Shearer's all-time record of 260 goals will also come under threat from the current England captain.

Kane has been playing in the Premier League for four seasons longer than Salah, but how does his record against his remaining opponents look?

Harry Kane Goal Stats

• Total: 49 goals in 62 games - 0.79 goals per game
• Predicted goals total this season - 25

This weekend, Kane faces Manchester United looking to add to the two goals he scored in Spurs' 6-1 win at Old Trafford on the same October Sunday afternoon when Liverpool lost 7-2 to Villa.

After a slow start against the Red Devils, Kane has four goals in his last four games.

Everton and Southampton are next on the schedule for Kane and luckily for Tottenham, their talisman has a great record against both sides.

Against the Toffees, Kane has nine goals in 11 games and includes four successive games when he has scored two goals in each fixture.

Kane's performance against the Saints earlier this season earned rave reviews as it showcased his ability to play in a deeper role for Jose Mourinho.

He only scored one of his side's five goals at St Mary's, but he provided assists for Son Heung-Min's four goals that afternoon. Southampton will have their work cut out to make sure Kane does not add to his 10 goals in 12 contests.

Sheffield United's relegation might have been confirmed by the time the Blades visit north London when Tottenham hope to have the Carabao Cup trophy proudly on display at their new stadium.

Kane has faced the Blades three times and has scored in each of his last two games against the Yorkshire side.

Another Yorkshire club awaits Kane the following week when Spurs visit Elland Road. Kane opened the scoring in a 3-0 Tottenham win in the reverse fixture and he will be looking to score in successive games against Marcelo Bielsa's side.

Kane's Premier League Tallies

• 2013/14 - 3
• 2014/15 - 21
• 2015/16 - 25 (Golden Boot winner)
• 2016/17 - 29 (Golden Boot winner)
• 2017/18 - 30
• 2018/19 - 17
• 2019/20 - 18
• 2020/21 - 19
• 162 goals in 235 Premier League games (0.68 goals per game)

Wolves have managed to keep Kane goalless in the last two meetings after finding the net in both fixtures during the 2018/19 campaign.

Tottenham's leading scorer tends to finish the season strongly and he will relish this season's final two fixtures.

A home game with Aston Villa and a trip to Leicester is a chance for Kane to add to the 21 goals in 18 league games he has managed against both sides.

Kane has seven goals in his last seven games against Villa but his record against Leicester is the best of any team he has faced in the Premier League.

Despite not scoring in this season's first meeting, Kane still has 14 goals in 11 Premier League meetings and that haul includes two hat-tricks.

The remaining fixtures favour Kane landing his third Golden Boot award and his projected goals total taking into consideration his record against his next eight opponents comes to 25 – two more than Salah's expected goals total of 23.

Kane also has a better record in the final two months of the season, scoring 0.72 goals per game compared to Salah's 0.60.

With a one-goal advantage, Kane is 8/11 to pip Salah to the award with the Egyptian 13/8 to win his third award in four seasons.

Whatever happens between now and the end of the football season, the race to be crowned the best goalscorer in England will certainly be one to watch closely.