Gorton And Denton By-Election Odds & Betting Tips: Green Day For Polanski Party?

The Gorton and Denton by-election is widely seen as one of the most significant in living memory. 

It's a race that could have profound implications for UK politics and all three main protagonists. 

Entering the final stretch, betting sites are also widening their range of markets.

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Major Implications For All Three Contenders

First, consider these implications. If the Greens - now a best-priced 4/7 with William Hill compared to the 6/4 initially recommended on these pages - go on to win, it would herald their emergence as a frontline party and may well spark a surge. 

As discussed recently, Zack Polanski’s party has the potential to become the leading choice among progressives, usurping Labour.

If Labour, 13/2 with William Hill, lose, further pressure will mount upon beleaguered prime minister Keir Starmer. 

The decision by Labour's ruling National Executive Committee to block Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing in this contest will come under fire, and there will be an air of inevitability about Starmer’s departure later this year.

As for Reform (11/4 with BetMGM), victory here would represent an historic breakthrough. 

Victory in this far-from-ideal constituency would surely end doubts that they are favourites for the next general election. Defeat, however, might reinforce those growing doubts.

Gorton And Denton By-Election Odds:

The State Of Play

Constituencies are very hard to poll, but for what it's worth, here is the latest from Omnisis. 

The parties are listed in the same order as the betting. However, note that nearly a third of respondents were undecided, the sample was small, and seven points in a by-election poll is hardly a decisive margin.

These numbers are very much in line with the demographics and previous voting behaviour analysed in the initial preview, but several known unknowns could yet swing the result.

Have the Greens, who have run a strong local campaign, maximised their potential? 

Can Reform monopolise the right-wing vote, or will the Conservatives and Advance UK retain small, yet significant and potentially decisive shares? 

Can crisis-ridden Labour get their vote out? Will the arrest of Peter Mandelson have a late effect? 

Those undecided are predominantly former Labour voters, so if any of the three parties are to exceed the poll projection, they are likeliest to do so. 

The party have constantly briefed throughout that their vote was holding up on the doorstep. 

Starmer’s visit to the constituency should be seen as significant. That would not happen if they thought defeat was inevitable.

While these outright odds feel broadly right, with Labour perhaps slightly underestimated, there are plenty of alternative side markets on offer. 

Ladbrokes offer 'Last Place Finish', for which the Communist League are 8/11 favourites, plus two match bets - Conservatives (1/6) vs Lib Dems (7/2), and Rejoin EU (4/6) vs Monster Raving Loony Party (11/10).

Labour Underrated For Top-Two Finish

Star Sports has a wider slate, and this may be where the best value is to be found. 

In the market to finish second, Labour appeals at 4/1. To reiterate, they have most to gain from the undecideds, and Starmer’s visit is a positive signal. 

They will also have the most efficient postal vote operation, which is always critical in by-elections due to lower turnout.

Also, it offers Under/Over vote share lines on the big three. The Greens are available at 5/6 on 32% or higher. This looks marginally superior value to the 4/7 available to win the seat. The Reform and Labour lines are 29% and 26% respectively.

Gorton And Denton By-Election Odds: To Finish In Second Place

Finally, the bookmaker offers odds on the turnout. There have been 11 by-elections in the last three years, all with turnout between 30% and 50%. Only one was sub-35 %, while two landed between 45.0% and 49.99%.

Three were seen as genuinely competitive, with full campaigns from the main parties. 

These saw turnout at 44.1% (Mid Bedfordshire), 46.2% (Uxbridge and South Ruislip) and 46.2% (Runcorn and Helsby).

Gorton And Denton By-Election Odds: Final Prediction

Earlier in the last parliament, we also saw 47.5% in the competitive Batley and Spen by-election and 52.1% in Cheshire and Amersham, which produced a stunning upset for the Lib Dems. 

One negative is that at the last general election in Gorton and Denton, turnout was just 46.2% - way down on the national average. 

The fact that this race is so competitive and is receiving much media attention means it should reach 40%. Try the 40-44.99% band at 3/1.

Who do you think will win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Tell us your thoughts in the comment box below!