Gorton And Denton By-Election Odds And Betting Tips: Big Opportunity For Greens
The big political action this week is centred on an absolutely fascinating by-election which could have immediate ramifications for the prime minister and the framing of elections moving forward.
The market is far from settled, with three different outcomes all trading at competitive odds on betting sites.
Greens Neck And Neck With Reform
Reform and the Greens can both be backed at 6/4, whilst Labour - who won this seat with over 50% of the vote in 2024 - are outsiders of three at 4/1 with Coral.
However, their odds have been shortening in the wake of a very small sample poll.
Let’s begin with the incumbents, who are in turmoil on a national level and locally, following the weekend decision to block Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing here.
As discussed previously on these pages, to lose this seat now would be a catastrophe for Starmer.
Their dominance at the last election counts for less when one considers recent by-election trends.
During the last parliament, it was common for incumbent Conservatives to lose around, sometimes more, than half their vote share from the previous general election, broadly mirroring their collapse in national polls.
Gorton And Denton By-Election Odds:
Party | Odds | Bookmaker |
Green | 6/4 | |
Reform | 6/4 | |
Labour | 4/1 | |
Workers Party Of Britain | 50/1 |
Labour Share Sure To Fall Sharply
Labour are polling at around 55% of their poll share at the 2024 general election. To win here, they will need to retain around 65% of their share from 2024 - a very tough ask given the wider conditions and dynamics.
It takes an exceptional set of circumstances for any government to defy gravity. The dynamics of these races favour the challenger, the insurgent.
A government supporter may be less motivated to vote, or use it as a chance to send a message via an opposition vote, whereas opponents are better motivated than ever.
Gorton and Denton could present the perfect storm, with Labour shedding protest votes (or permanent switches) to both Reform and the Greens.
They finished a distant second and third respectively in 2024, but have risen sharply since. If they dominate this race, a narrative may start to build that they are the main right/left choices moving forward, as the Conservative and Labour parties collapse.
Demographics Strongly Favour The Left
When trying to predict constituencies, the demographic indicators at electoralcalculus.co.uk are invaluable.
It reveals that only 57.6% of the Gorton and Denton electorate are white, compared to a national average of 86%. 61% are deprived, compared to the national average of 53%. At 46.5, it is three years younger than the average electorate.
Based on the implications of those numbers, plus their rankings for ‘Leave’ (404th out of 650 constituencies), ‘Economic Right’ (565th), ‘National Position’ (485th) and ‘Social Conservative’ (291st), this is clearly a constituency which favours the left parties.
As UK party politics fragments like never before, there is a tendency for voters to form around two blocs, which for convenience we shall label ‘left’ and ‘right’.
The right consists of Conservatives and Reform, while all other main parties are on the left.
See below how the majority of switchers to Reform come from the Tories and how, even as the Labour vote is in freefall, those two are only winning 11% of their transfers, compared to 15% to the Greens and 9% to the Lib Dems.
🧵/ How would Britain vote at the start of 2026: Our new study of 17,000 Britons breaks down current voting intention by factors such as age, socio-economic classification, past vote, and more... pic.twitter.com/a0Y1JlK0Cg
— YouGov (@YouGov) January 21, 2026
Consider the recent Caerphilly by-election, where a Plaid Cymru victory was predicted here at 9/5.
The early betting favoured Reform, but as the race developed, the left vote coalesced around the best-placed party from their bloc. In that previously rock-solid Labour constituency, the median voter didn’t suddenly embrace Welsh nationalism. They made a tactical choice to beat Reform.
This constituency guide from election guru and local resident Rob Ford makes absolutely essential reading.
He points out that the wards where the demographics could favour Reform make up half the size of the wards which would favour Labour/Greens.
Note too the nature of the Labour vote in these wards which have a very high share of Muslims, students and graduates - the very groups which are ripe for transferring to the Greens.
The Muslim Vote pressure group has endorsed the Greens, which may help them take some of the 10% earned by George Galloway’s Workers Party in 2024.
Ford also discusses the Reform candidate, Matt Goodwin. His frequent incendiary remarks about Muslims and non-white Britons are guaranteed to gain traction in what is already a high-profile race.
No doubt, there is a faction of voters who will receive that well, but they are a minority in a seat such as Gorton and Denton.
Greens Can Win Tactical Battle
To win this seat will likely require 35% vote share, which will be hard for Reform to exceed among this electorate.
They can win if Labour and Green voters don’t tactically coalesce. But if Caerphilly is any sort of guide, left voters will work out their best option before polling day and pass that low threshold.
The more publicity a race gets, the easier it becomes to organise tactics. The more of an exciting vibe a party can create, the better.
In a constituency where they won’t lack boots on the ground, this looks set up for the Greens. Take the 6/4 with a couple of betting apps.
Who do you think will win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Tell us your thoughts in the comment box below!
