Diarmuid Nolan: Willie Mullins Has A Nicky Henderson Problem

Whisper it quietly, but we have one hell of a National Hunt season unfolding in front of us and on the best betting sites.

The past few seasons have made it difficult to defend National Hunt horse racing, but this year the sport is regaining its competitive edge.

The 2024/25 National Hunt season burst into life at the end of November when Brighterdaysahead lowered the colours of State Man, and the following day Fact To File impressively overcame a stacked John Durkan field.

Since then, we have witnessed a plethora of high-profile clashes during Christmas at Kempton and Leopardstown.

Even the recent weekend at Ascot delivered another thrilling battle between Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson, as Jonbon solidified his Champion Chase credentials.

Sure, negativity about racing can rack up plenty of likes on social media, but honestly, what more do people want? 

The BHA and HRI have started adjusting the racing schedule to limit trainers' abilities to avoid each other, and overall, it is working. 

Racing feels like it is in a better place, and for now that is all we can ask for while striving for more.

In the 2023/24 season, Willie Mullins dominated from December onward, both in Ireland and across the UK.

While it is still possible he will replicate that dominance this year, at this point, it does not seem as likely.

At present, there are seven horses priced at 2/1 or shorter on Cheltenham betting sites, and Mullins is responsible for only one of them. 

Furthermore, the form of his yard is not as commanding as in previous years. In December 2023, Mullins boasted a 27% strike rate, but this fell to 19% in December 2024.

Although his strike rate rebounded to 28% in January 2025, it still pales in comparison to the 43% he achieved in January 2024 (and 40% in January 2023). 

For most stables, a 28% strike rate would be phenomenal, but for Mullins it represents a noticeable dip.

Of course, Mullins remains far from a trainer "out of form." There’s ample time for the Closutton juggernaut to reclaim his dominance. 

However, other trainers are beginning to close the gap. Notably, Nicky Henderson has risen to the occasion this season, often coming out on top in their head-to-head clashes.

Nicky Henderson

Pride can be a powerful motivator, and I genuinely admire how Henderson has spearheaded the charge against his Irish rival. 

Watching Mullins claim the UK Trainers’ Championship in 2024 would undoubtedly have stung for many UK trainers, especially Henderson, who was left powerless to challenge after his yard was hit by illness.

This season, however, the tables have turned somewhat. In three highly anticipated clashes, Henderson has emerged victorious each time. 

His yard is in terrific form, and of the seven Cheltenham favourites at 2/1 or shorter on betting apps, Henderson trains four of them.

This feels like Rocky IV, with Mullins cast as Ivan Drago. Once Drago was cut, the crowd realised he was human after all, and in a similar vein, Henderson has landed enough blows on the all-conquering Mullins yard to prove they are not invincible.

After enduring plenty of criticism over the past 12 months, Henderson deserves his time in the spotlight.

Paul Nicholls

Another trainer who may have felt the sting of Mullins’ dominance in 2024 is Paul Nicholls. 

However, unlike Henderson, Nicholls has not mounted a serious challenge at the top level this season. Instead, his yard has been enduring a prolonged period of struggle.

December 2024 marked Nicholls’ second-worst December since 2015, with a 15% strike rate, a sharp decline from 23% in 2023 and 24% in 2022. 

January has been similarly poor, with an 11% strike rate, compared to 20% in 2024 and 31% in 2023.

As he tends to jab his horses at this point, Nicholls typically runs fewer horses in January, focusing instead on laying groundwork for the spring, but even those select runners have underperformed. 

For now, his priority must be getting back to basics and a dream of taking on Mullins will have to wait for another year.

Other Trainers

Several other trainers are interesting to note also:

• Gavin Cromwell continues to go from strength to strength. He enjoyed his best-ever December and is now just three winners away from matching his best-ever January.
• Henry de Bromhead’s stable has followed its usual pattern of a strong November, a quieter December (10% strike rate, down from 24%), and a very quiet January (just over 4%).
• Gordon Elliott has bounced back strongly after an adequate December winners-wise (17 winners, his lowest festive tally since 2015). With eight winners from his last 25 runners, he is firmly back to his brilliant best.
• Dan Skelton, Warren Greatrex and Nigel Twiston-Davies (26% strike rate) are also trainers to watch heading into the spring.

Festival Bet

One trainer enjoying a breakthrough season at the top level is Ben Pauling, and I believe he could taste further Cheltenham glory with Diva Luna.

She holds strong form over her rivals from her brilliant Aintree bumper win last season, and Pauling has stressed that she will improve further as the season progresses. 

After encountering some off-season issues, her last two runs were very much needed.

At 14/1 with Betfred, she is worth a punt. 

An impressive performance in her next run could see those odds shorten significantly and she does look to appear this weekend.

Festival Changes

Returning to Mullins, I still expect him to comfortably claim the top trainer title at Cheltenham, but it will not be a walk in the park (no pun intended). 

The festival changes this year seem specifically designed to curb his dominance.

For instance, novice hurdlers now need five hurdle starts to qualify for the County Hurdle - a race Mullins has won three times in the last five years with novices. 

Additionally, there are more handicap chases on the schedule, a category Mullins has yet to win at Cheltenham.

Couple these changes with a reinvigorated Henderson, where he is particularly strong in key races like the Arkle, Champion Hurdle and Champion Chase it all just becomes harder for Mullins to even replicate his tally of nine winners in 2024. I think he will have six or less winners as a result.