Reform Election Betting Odds: Have Nigel Farage's Party Peaked?

Frenetic action is under way on politics betting sites regarding which party will win the most seats at the next UK General Election. 

Having been clear favourites for months, Reform are friendless in the market, and even usurped by Labour in places.

Meanwhile, the Greens have halved in odds, to a best of 10/1, since their improving chance was highlighted on these pages. 

UK General Election Odds: Most Seats

(Odds correct at the time of publish: 5.15pm - 20/02/2026)

Reform Have New Rival

More pertinently, Reform have a new challenger on the far right, in the form of their ex-MP Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain party. 

The best price about this brand new party is just 16/1 with one of the betting apps. Given the obvious parallels, this explains the market changes.

Are these overreactions, or are market trends shrewdly forecasting the trajectory of UK politics in the months ahead?

In the case of Restore Britain, these early odds do seem absurdly short. To describe a party winning most seats, a mere three years after its formation, as ‘unprecedented’ would be an understatement.

Usurping Farage Will Be Tough

It has taken Nigel Farage more than two decades and three parties to reach his current, fragile, mid-term position at the head of the polls. 

Even his fiercest detractors wouldn’t deny Farage is a canny operator and impressive media performer. Reform are more than just him, but would be nowhere without him.

That cannot be said of Rupert Lowe, or any of the far right characters likely to be associated with the project. 

Elon Musk may well pour his money behind RB. Tommy Robinson may come on board. An alliance with Advance UK - led by Farage-ally-turned-critic Ben Habib - is highly plausible.

These are well-known, well-resourced, not insignificant characters. The Guardian reported various influentual figures attending their launch. But they are way to the right of median UK opinion. 

For example, while immigration remains a top concern among voters, the vast majority want a fairer, better organised system rather than the ‘mass deportations now’ mantra of Lowe et al.

However fringe Restore Britain may be, they do nevertheless represent a mortal threat to Reform. There are not enough votes on the far right to support two sizeable parties.

Tory Defections May Backfire

This comes at a critical juncture, amid reports of major internal discontent about Reform’s direction. The defection of several Tory MPs has, not unsurprisingly, alienated some of the grassroots. 

People are being forced to put aside their own electoral ambitions to make way for defectors from a party they never supported. 

Much of the online discourse within which Farage previously thrived has taken to lumping Reform in with the hated centre, or so-called ‘Uniparty’. Thinly-veiled references to the ethnicity of non-white Reform candidates is growing.

If the two parties stay independent of one another, both will be damaged. Given the animosity between the key players, a workable electoral deal seems unlikely. 

Were Reform to move in that direction, it would make what could be a more productive pact with the Tories even less likely.

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Imminent Defeats May Puncture Brand

The coming months are critical for Reform’s future. They have been usurped as favourites for the Gorton and Denton by-election by the Greens, and to win the Welsh Senedd by Plaid Cymru. 

If failing to win either, the narrative may turn against them. The Tories will sense an opportunity to win back some of their lost voters.

The electoral cycle, and of a party’s development, has many stages. First, Reform had an easy run. They hoovered up disgruntled voters on the right as the Conservatives hit rock-bottom. 

Aided by powerful support across the media, Farage was able to present himself as by far the best known, most frequently heard, opponent to the new Labour government. 

As Labour struggled through various difficulties, Reform assumed the position of default alternative government, just like Labour during the previous parliament, as the Tories collapsed. 

Gorton And Denton By-Election Odds:

(Odds correct at the time of publish: 5.15pm - 20/02/2026)

However the next stage becomes harder. Their policies are scrutinised. Other parties emerge as challengers, such as Plaid Cymru, the Greens and now, perhaps, Restore Britain.

The range of possibilities for Reform in the years ahead is vast. They could see off these new challengers and end up forming a majority of seats. 

They could lead a formidable alliance with the Tories. Or they could implode and end up with nothing. There truly has never been a situation like this in the betting for a UK general election.

Are Reform UK starting to lose their shine? Let us know your thoughts in the comment box below or vote in our poll above on the next General Election!