Royal Ascot Tips: Best Racing Tips for Day 3
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Thursday's Horse Racing Tips
- 15:05 Ascot – Tagabawa – 2pts @ 11/2 with bet365
- 16:20 Ascot – Subjectivist – 1pt @ 9/1 with Coral
- 17:00 Ascot – Royal Cape – 1pt @ 16/1 with Ladbrokes
- 17:35 Ascot – Exoplanet – 1pt @ 7/1 with 888sport
- 18:10 Ascot – Spirit Of Light – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (6 places) with bet365
For Thursday's horse racing tips, our analyst James Boyle looks at the flat racing action at Royal Ascot, with five selections now online.
As always, you’ll find the most up-to-date odds at the best horse racing betting sites, but don’t sleep on our tipster’s predictions as those odds could soon be gobbled up by the betting public. Odds stated are correct at the time of publishing.
15:05 Ascot – Tagabawa – 2pts @ 11/2
No prizes for originality in siding with Tagabawa but I think he’s a Group horse masquerading as a handicapper and hopefully he’ll get the luck in-running needed to show what he’s capable of. A late foal, he didn’t make his racecourse debut until November but quickened away from the field to score comfortably, doing so despite the C&D being sharp for him and the pace being pedestrian.
Class got him through there and he was all the rage to follow up under a penalty at Kempton, but got done for pace and had to settle for third behind the impressive Wigmore Street (not seen since). That wasn’t a terrible run considering a few of the different elements at play and maybe he didn’t have his mind fully on the job of being a racehorse as they went on to geld him afterwards.
He stepped up a half-mile in trip for his handicap debut four months later and whilst it was an unsatisfactory pace once again, he travelled really well before quickening away in devastating fashion. Those in behind were no mugs either (the form has been boosted) and I can’t believe that’s the limit of his ability – although it wouldn’t want to be as he’s 12lbs higher lining up for this tougher race!
A strong run affair where he can get cover and wait to deliver his challenge promises to suit and the Godolphin crew know just what it takes to win this having done so a few times in the last decade. I’m sure they have other 3-year-old’s to target at it but he’s their sole runner and hopefully it’s because they feel he’s thrown-in off 97! He could well be and I reckon he’ll take all of the beating.
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16:20 Ascot – Subjectivist – 1pt @ 9/1
Coltrane could end up winning but the Sagaro was hardly a brilliant piece of form as they crawled around before sprinting and both of his main market rivals were disappointing. He is C&D proven and isn’t any worse than last season, but I just don’t like the price. Eldar Eldarov looks every inch a Cup horse and will be involved barring issue. Again, he’s too well-found in the betting to side with.
Emily Dickinson is forgiven her Leopardstown flop as she wants a more thorough test and ended up at the front of the field, but whether she’ll like this ground is the worry with her. Courage Mon Ami goes from making a winning handicap debut over 1m 6f off 98 to running against the best stayers around at two-and-a-half miles and it’ll take something extremely special to see him winning it out.
Subjectivist is the one I keep coming back to. It’s not rocket-science with him as he won this race in 2021, posting a brilliant performance to score by five-lengths, but came out of it injured and missed the remainder of that year and 2022. The Johnston team have done well to get him back at all and it’s hard to know what level he can perform to. However, if he’s going to max out it’ll likely be now.
He showed the fire still burns bright on his second start back, finishing third in the Dubai Gold Cup and there are reasons to upgrade that effort as he was drawn wide and those who raced towards the front end did plenty soon enough. This will be the acid test to see where he stands but 9/1 about him repeating his old trick seems fair. He’ll be trained to the minute and could be hard to catch.
17:00 Ascot – Royal Cape – 1pt @ 16/1
This selection comes with a wealth warning by default as I’ve never managed to find the winner of the Britannia and this year’s renewal looks no easier than usual! I’m taking the same approach as my Hunt Cup process and wanting to rock with something that’ll be held up slipstreaming in cover, travel along well and finish the race off strongly. The latter aspect didn’t happen in the Hunt Cup, that’s for sure.
The draw is a disaster to figure out and Royal Cape has to come out of stall two. That could be brilliant, or terrible, and I’m not sure what to think. But there’s no doubting that he’s a talented colt with more to offer the game as he gains experience and although beaten around three-lengths on his handicap debut at Haydock, the winner – John Gosden’s Covey – has Group-class potential.
He did about as well as could have been expected against one with so much in hand (currently 5/2 for the Jersey on Saturday) and the run of the race wasn’t exactly optimal. Despite having to wait for a clear run at things and still shaping as if on the greener side of the scale, he went forward to the line and achieved a good timefigure in the process. Even in the context of this race, it was a solid effort.
The handicapper put him up a token pound for that to 89 and I like that rating for him. He’s going to be much better than that over an even longer trip but, at this point of his career, a stiff test at a mile where there’s no hanging about will be right up his street. He moves like one who should travel well off the speed and if he’s as good as I’m hoping, he’ll hit the line. Hopefully it’ll be in time to win!
17:35 Ascot – Exoplanet – 1pt @ 7/1
I love Exoplanet and there’s a big race in him at some point. You’re looking at needing to run to 110-ish (or a bit higher) to win a typical renewal of this and that could do the trick again. Given that Roger Varian’s charge is only rated 100 at present, he’s going to have to take a leap and do it quickly, but he hasn’t had anything nearing an optimal race scenario fall his way just yet. It might today.
He’s arriving in top form anyway, only beaten a half-length in a valuable Newbury handicap five weeks ago and I didn’t like the tactics they employed there. Fair enough, he was drawn very wide and it would have taken bravery and good fortune to link up in order to get a good sit, but they dropped him right out the back of the field. With a stop-start gallop, that didn’t help his cause one bit.
The way he made his ground smoothly on the bridle was impressive and he even had time to jump a piece of litter on the track when making headway. His exertions told in the end and I’d upgrade his figure on a few different counts. It was a proper, high-quality handicap and he will have learned plenty for his experience there, which will hopefully lead to the improvement he’ll need to land this.
18:10 Ascot – Spirit Of Light – 1pt e/w @ 16/1
Spirit Of Light has been a regular guest on this column and hopefully he can make it third time lucky for me this season! He’s an infrequent winner but his three peak figures have been posted in the last few months and he’s threatening to do something very meaningful in a big race. I thought he was unfortunate not to go closer at York last time when racing over 6f and he really enjoyed the fast ground.
He was on his head a bit in a sprint at a speed track but hit the line well and showed he was in far better order than he was eleven days earlier. His last 7f spin – at Newmarket in April – came on ground softer than he’d care for and still yielded a third placed finish, with Rebel Territory and Vafortino the only two who beat him; they went on to be first and third in the C&D Victoria Cup.
Ascot is the sort of place that should suit him and when he ran here last season, he hadn’t been with Ian Williams for long and wasn’t operating at full tilt. He’s a different prospect now, James Doyle retaining the ride is a plus-point and all looks set for a big performance if the draw isn’t a problem. I was hoping for a bigger price than 16’s but it’ll do and 6 places offer a reasonable insurance policy.
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