Wisconsin Swing State Odds: Trump Tipped For Victory Over Poll-Leading Harris
Betting sites have flipped their odds on Wisconsin’s presidential election result just days before the vote and now believe Donald Trump will beat Kamala Harris in the state.
Harris has led the polls in Wisconsin ever since she replaced Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket. A recent CNN poll even suggested she has a six-point advantage over Trump in the final week of the campaign.
Poll aggregators have Harris 1.6 points up on Trump, which at this stage of the campaign is a positive sign for the Dems.
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Yet it’s Trump who has stolen a lead on political betting sites as punters back the Republican candidate to smash through the Blue Wall on November 5.
In a remarkable twist, betting apps have turned on Harris and the polls.
The weight of Trump bets has forced the MAGA leader’s price to odds-on, and he now seemingly has a 57% chance of winning in Wisconsin.
Wisconsin Election Betting Odds
Indeed, bookmaker BetVictor has Harris priced at 11/10, while Trump is 10/11 with William Hill.
Betting data shows a 20% swing in wagers backing Trump in the space of a month, with Harris’ odds expanding because of it.
Party | Odds | Bookmaker |
Republican | 10/11 | |
Democrat | 11/10 |
Wisconsin is the most Democrat-leaning of the seven swing states in play this autumn but bettors don’t think it’s turning Blue.
The Badger State backed Trump in 2016, came back to the Dems and supported Joe Biden in 2020, but it is a toss-up now.
Who Will Win Wisconsin?
Harris doesn’t need to win Wisconsin to win the 2024 presidential election. However, should she lose this state then it is almost certain that she would have lost the likes of Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Major issues concerning Wisconsinites are the same that rage across the country. The cost of living, immigration and abortion are intensified in local and national discourse.
In Wisconsin, the state is split between the Democratic strongholds of Madison, Milwaukee and Superior, and the Republican rural regions.
Trump leads the polls on immigration, Harris on abortion rights. Trump formerly had the edge on the economy but Harris is catching up.
There is record-low unemployment in the state and manufacturing has rebounded under the Biden presidency. In a Bloomberg report, Wisconsin was noted as being one of the most successful states in delivering a post-Covid recovery.
Harris has been wary of attaching herself too much to Biden’s economic legacy – despite its large successes – and yet Wisconsin is the state in which she should champion the past four years of Democrat-led work.
Business is booming in Wisconsin but living standards aren’t keeping up. This is the problem for many voters, and why they believe Trump could deliver something different to the current regime.
Trump won Wisconsin in 2016 on the promise of change. Four years later voters rejected the Republican after not seeing the benefit of that rhetoric. Four years further on, and voters who see business doing well, but not their pay packets, may look to Trump again.
That’s why Wisconsin, despite showing a Harris lead of six points in some polls, is such a tight state. The bookies expect Trump to win on November 5 based on what happened in 2016.
