Best MLB Prop Bets Today & Best MLB Player Prop Bets Today 06/19
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Best MLB Player Prop Bets Today, June 19:
- ⭐ Austin Gomber Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125) at BetMGM Sportsbook
- ⭐ James Paxton Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-132) at bet365 Sportsbook
- ⭐ Hunter Brown Under 5.5 hits allowed (-130) at DraftKings Sportsbook
- ⭐ Michael Wacha Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (+123) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Are you ready for a thrilling day of MLB action, featuring 10 great games on Monday? We've analyzed the best odds from best online betting sites to bring you our expert picks for the most profitable MLB player prop bets.
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Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds 7:10 PM ET
Best MLB Prop Bet #1: Austin Gomber Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125) at BetMGM
Austin Gomber's performance as a starting pitcher has been underwhelming, making him one of the worst in baseball. His once promising plus-curveball has deteriorated, leaving him with a subpar fastball combination that ranks among the worst in the sport. His ERA of 7.29 and xERA aren't much better, placing him near the bottom of the league in essential statistical categories. In fact, his peripherals indicate that he's worse than a replacement-level pitcher.
Considering Gomber's struggles, it's not surprising that he has recorded under 4.5 strikeouts in 11 out of his 14 starts this season. Even in a previous game against the Cincinnati Reds, known for being prone to strikeouts, Gomber managed just one strikeout in 4.1 innings while giving up five runs.
Furthermore, the Reds have shown improvement as the season has progressed, boasting a 123 wRC+ and the 13th-lowest strikeout rate (21.8%) against left-handed pitchers in the past month.
Given these factors, it seems unlikely that Gomber will be competitive in this start, making it doubtful that he will achieve over 4.5 strikeouts.
Best MLB Prop Bet #1: Gomber Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)
Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins, 7:40 PM ET
Best MLB Prop Bet #2: James Paxton Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-132) at bet365
Although high odds usually deter me, this play is too enticing to ignore. James Paxton has been exceptional this season, recording an impressive 12.4 K/9 and a 33.1% strikeout rate across 32 innings. His outstanding 3.10 xFIP further solidifies his strong performance in 2023.
While Paxton's reliance on fly balls and tendency to give up hard contact may lead to occasional struggles, this matchup against the Minnesota Twins seems favorable. The Twins have the highest strikeout rate (27.4%) in the MLB against left-handed pitching since May 1 and lead the league with a 30% strikeout rate over the past 14 days.
Additionally, Paxton's arsenal, featuring a formidable curveball and changeup, presents a significant advantage against the Twins' predominantly right-handed lineup. Minnesota has shown difficulties against both types of pitches, further favoring Paxton's chances of success.
Furthermore, the Twins have struggled to generate power against left-handed pitching, providing Paxton with an opportunity to contain their offensive threats and deliver another outstanding start.
Considering these factors, it appears likely that Paxton will surpass 6.5 strikeouts in this game.
Best MLB Player Prop Bet #2: James Paxton Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-132)
New York Mets at Houston Astros, 8:10 PM ET
Best MLB Prop Bet #3: Hunter Brown Under 5.5 hits allowed (-130) at DraftKings
Hunter Brown is set to face the struggling New York Mets on Monday, presenting a favorable opportunity for his performance. In June, the Mets have shown a high strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, ranking 10th highest in the league. Moreover, their batting average against right-handed pitchers is a meager .216, placing them among the bottom five teams in baseball.
Brown has been in excellent form recently, allowing fewer than 6 hits in four of his last five games. Notably, he delivered a seven-inning shutout against the Nationals in his most recent start. While he has had issues with walks, with at least 2 walks in eight of his 13 starts and a total of 8 walks in his last three starts, this doesn't directly impact the hits allowed market.
However, the concern lies with the Houston bullpen being fatigued, which may limit Brown's ability to pitch beyond six innings due to his walks. Additionally, the Mets possess disciplined hitters like Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, and Francisco Lindor, all of whom have a BB% above 10% against right-handed pitchers.
Considering these factors, it is unlikely that Brown will allow over 5.5 hits in this matchup. The Mets' struggles at the plate and Brown's recent strong performances indicate a favorable outcome for this prop bet.
Best MLB Player Prop Bet #3: Hunter Brown Under 5.5 hits allowed (-130)
San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants, 9:45 PM ET
Best MLB Prop Bet #4: Michael Wacha Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (+123) at FanDuel
Although Michael Wacha has been performing well in recent weeks, it may be an opportune time to take advantage of his earned runs allowed prop. Facing the San Francisco Giants on Monday night, Wacha's odds of surpassing 2.5 earned runs are listed at +123 on FanDuel sportsbook.
The Giants' lineup has been on fire, consistently hitting the ball with authority over the past seven games and throughout the month of June. Player projections for Wacha range from 2.2 earned runs to 3.01, with most forecasts leaning toward figures above 2.5.
While Wacha has excelled in home starts, boasting a 2.51 ERA and securing five of his seven wins, his performance on the road has been slightly less impressive with a 3.54 ERA across five starts.
The Giants, currently a formidable opponent, recently scored 29 runs in a three-game sweep against the Dodgers and rank as the second-best hitting team in June, averaging close to 6.5 runs per game.
Although betting on Wacha to exceed 2.5 earned runs doesn't imply that he will have a poor outing, the combination of player projections and the Giants' potent lineup suggests a solid +EV (expected value) for the Over in this matchup.
Best MLB Prop Bet #5: Michael Wacha Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (+123)
As the MLB season continues, sports enthusiasts in Kentucky have something extra to look forward to. Starting this September, Kentucky sportsbooks be launching in the state. This means you'll be able to place your bets on your favorite MLB teams and players. Don't forget to check out the best Kentucky Sportsbooks to enhance your betting experience.
FAQ
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DraftKings has an enticing MLB bonus offer available where betting just $5 can unlock $150 in free bets. Once you place a bet of $5, you're rewarded with $150 in free bets, significantly increasing your MLB betting potential and enjoyment.
How does FanDuel $1,000 MLB promo code work?
FanDuel does not match deposits for new customers. It does, however, award up to $1,000 in bonus bets if you sign up, make a minimum deposit of $10 using the MLB promo code. If your first bet loses, you get up to $1,000 in bonus bets.
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Updated by
Admir Aljic
Last Updated:
