Betting Odds: If Biden Or Trump Fall Out, Who’s Next?

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Betting Odds: If Biden Or Trump Fall Out, Who’s Next?

With the 2024 presidential campaign season in full swing, Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump appear headed to a showdown in the Nov. 5 presidential election.

Now that the primary field has narrowed, both candidates seem to have gone into general election mode, setting up a likely rematch of the 2020 presidential race.

In 2020, Biden won with 51.3 percent of the popular vote and 306 electoral votes. To win, a candidate needs 270 electoral votes. Trump had 232. He was the first incumbent to lose a presidential reelection since George H.W. Bush in 1992.

Many Voters Don’t Want A Rematch

Not everyone likes seeing these two go at it again.

According to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, 67% of respondents nationwide said they were "tired of seeing the same candidates in presidential elections and want someone new,” though only 18% said they would not vote if Biden and Trump were the choices, according to Reuters.

Republican candidate Nikki Haley, a former South Carolina governor still in the race, has said the time has come for a new generation of leaders. Biden is 81 years old. Trump turns 78 in June. As the Wall Street Journal reported in a story about their ages, both are past the U.S. life expectancy of 76.4 years.

Though betting on the presidential election is not allowed in the U.S. at regulated sportsbetting sites, sportsbooks in Ontario, Canada, can accept bets legally. In current odds at FanDuel in Ontario, Trump is at -110 and Biden is at +170.

However, with 10 months until November, some pundits are wondering what would happen if Biden or Trump don't end up as their party’s candidate for whatever reason, including legal problems or some unforeseen issue.

If that happens, different processes are in place for each party to put forth a new candidate. The ABC News website has a good analysis on what steps need to take place for a new candidate to be on the Nov. 5 ballot from either party.

Odds For Current Possible Replacements

If Biden or Trump are out of the race for any reason, several names have been floated as potential alternatives. Analyzing some names currently in circulation, complied a short list of potential replacement candidates. The names and odds could change heading into the summer conventions.

The analysis is based on current polling information, current and potential delegates, popularity within the party, ability to appeal to swing-state undecideds and status as a potential compromise selection. Some wild cards also are thrown in.

Below are the current odds of the following contenders being their party’s choice if Biden or Trump are out.  

Republican Party

  • Nikki Haley +150
  • Ron DeSantis +200
  • Vivek Ramaswamy +1500
  • Condoleezza Rice +2500
  • Tucker Carlson +9500 
  • J.D. Vance +10000

Democratic Party

  • Kamala Harris +150
  • Gavin Newsom +250
  • Michelle Obama +750
  • Dean Phillips +1500
  • Hillary Clinton +5500
  • Elizabeth Warren +8500 

Projected odds set by are not currently available at legal sports betting sites in the U.S.

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Larry Henry

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