Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills Predictions & NFL Picks for 10/08
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Bills vs. Texans Odds, Predictions & Week 5 NFL Football Picks:
- ⭐ ATS Pick: Bills -5.5 (-110) at BetMGM
- ⭐ ML Pick: Bills (-250) at Caesars
- ⭐ Totals Pick: Under 48.5 (-110) at FanDuel
- ⭐ Player Prop: Gabe Davis Under 2.5 Receptions (+105) at DraftKings
Playing in London in Week 4, Jacksonville remains over there in Week 5 for our Bills vs. Jaguars predictions.
For our NFL picks, we can help but see the offensive explosion emanating from the Bills over this past three weeks, scoring no less than 37 points and dropping 48 a week ago at home against the hottest team in the league, the Miami Dolphins.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars are coming off a win, but it was against the Atlanta Falcons.
There’s something to be said about the Jaguars being there two weeks in a row while the Bills need to travel, but our interpretation of the NFL odds tends toward the Bills, as you’ll see.
Below are four NFL picks we discovered after reviewing the best online betting sites.
Let’s dive in.
Bills vs. Jaguars Against The Spread Pick
As mentioned, the Bills have scored no less than 37 points over their last three games, dropping 38 against the Las Vegas Raiders, 37 against the Washington Commanders, and 48 against Miami. We like the Bills as -5.5 favorites.
Since Week 1, the Jaguars are averaging just 16 points per game. They hit 23 last week but scored nine in Week 2 and 17 at home against the Houston Texans.
Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has played OK this season but hasn’t garnered much statistical production.
He’s completing 67.1% of his passes for 945 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions. He’s averaging just 6.6 yards per attempt with an average depth of target of just 7.2. There have been some drop issues with his receivers, but overall, this offense has struggled.
Defensively, the Jaguars cannot pressure opposing quarterbacks. Edge rusher Josh Allen has played well, including three sacks against the Falcons, but other than that, no one on the team has double-digit pressures.
The Bills offensive line is competent enough to fend off the Jaguars.
Coverage-wise, the Jaguars cornerbacks Darious Williams and Tyson Campbell have played well overall, but minus Patrick Mahomes, they haven’t faced a quarterback like Josh Allen.
The Bills defense has four players with double-digit pressures and 18 sacks on the season. Linebacker Von Miller will also suit up for this one.
The Jaguars offensive line has allowed nine sacks this season, and Cam Robinson is in his first game back after suspension.
For the first of our Bills vs. Jaguars predictions, we expect the Bills defense to hammer Lawrence here while the Bills offense remains one of the best in the league.
With our first NFL pick, take the Bills -5.5.
⭐ Best ATS Pick: Bills -5.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Bills vs. Jaguars Moneyline Best Bet
Getting plus NFL odds here, we like the Texans moneyline at +105 on the road in an upset.
There’s certainly a path for a Jaguars upset here, but we like Bills (-250) at Caesars. It would involve the offensive line doing enough to keep Lawrence upright and for him to pass the ball downfield on a weakened Bills secondary with Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk at his disposal. Interestingly enough, Lawrence has had success passing downfield. He’s complying 53.3% of his passes for 225 yards and three touchdowns on passes that travel more than 20+ yards downfield. Still, it’s hard to say he’ll be able to take advantage here against this pass rush.
⭐ Best ML Pick: Bills (-250) at Caesars
Bills vs. Jaguars Over/Under Best Bet
If Lawrence can pass downfield successfully, our NFL Week 5 predictions above could be in trouble. But with his struggles, we like the under of 48.5 (-115) at FanDuel.
However, we have seen minimal offensive production from the Jaguars through four weeks. While we’ve seen a lot from the Bills, the Jaguars coverage unit is good enough to keep secondary receivers like Gabe Davis in check.
There is also a human element to this, which includes overseas travel, which could also hamper the Bills and their 34.8 points per game.
For the third of our NFL picks, we’ll lean under 48.5 here. The Bills win this one, 27-20.
⭐ Best O/U Bet: Under 48.5 (-110) at FanDuel
⭐ CLICK HERE to bet on the Bills vs. Jaguars game! ⭐
Bills vs. Jaguars Top Player Props
Our favorite player prop for this game is Gabe Davis Under 2.5 Receptions (+105) at DraftKings. We discussed the promise this Jaguars secondary has shown with Campbell and Williams, and we think they show up in a big way against Bills No. 2 receiver Davis.
Davis has caught a touchdown in three straight games but does not catch many passes. Davis has 12 receptions in four games, and six of those came in Week 2. He’s had more than 2.5 receptions in a game just twice this season—the six-catch performance and then three in Week 4 against the Dolphins, where they scored 48.
Davis will likely see more of Williams here, who’s allowing a reception rate of just 61.1% with five pass breakups and one interception.
The NFL odds here are giving us plus value, and we’ll take it for our fourth and final NFL pick today for our Bills vs. Jaguars prediction.
⭐ Top NFL Player Prop: Gabe Davis Under 2.5 Receptions (+105) at DraftKings
As we look forward to the thrilling 2023 NFL season, there's another exciting development on the horizon for sports betting enthusiasts. As of September 28, Kentucky has officially launched online sports betting, paving the way for the emergence of new Kentucky betting apps. This opens up a new realm of opportunities for fans and bettors alike. Stay tuned for more updates on this front.
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