NBA Best Bets: Expert Analysis, Odds and Player Props for NBA Playoffs Today

Date IconLast Updated: May 16th, 2023
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NBA Best Bets: Expert Analysis, Odds and Player Props for NBA Playoffs Today
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The NBA Playoffs are in full swing with teams fighting for a spot in the Conference Finals. This week there are quite a few interesting matchups, with a few teams on the verge of advancing to the next round. This presents a great opportunity for the bettors to explore the NBA best bets and get in on the NBA betting action this Wednesday!

The Los Angeles Lakers are up 3-1 in the series against the Warriors, while the Denver Nuggets lead the series 3-2 against the Phoenix Suns. In the East, the New York Knicks will need a miracle to help them overcome the 1-3 deficit in the series against the Miami Heat. Finally, The Philadelphia 76ers are one win away from reaching the Eastern Conference Finals as they are up 3-2 against the Boston Celtics. 

Alongside the NBA best bets today, you can also check out the best available betting bonuses that will unlock some great deals and credits reflected in bonus bets that you can use when placing your bets. So, let's dive in and check out what our team of experts has selected as the NBA best bets today:

NBA Best Bets Today: Miami Heat at New York Knicks - Knicks ATS -3.5 (-110)

  • Date: Wednesday, May 10th | Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Location: Madison Square Garden, NY
  • TV channel: TNT | Live stream: TNT app
Betting MarketMiami HeatNew York Knicks
Spread+3.5 (-110)-3.5 (-110)
TotalsOver 209.5 (-110)Under 209.5 (-110)

The New York Knicks will face the Miami Heat at Madison Square Garden for Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals, with Miami leading the series 3-1. Despite the Knicks being down in the series, there are reasons to believe that they can cover the 3.5-point spread.

Firstly, the Knicks have been profitable to bet on throughout the regular season with a record of 44-34-4 ATS. Additionally, this will be the lowest spread of the series for a game at MSG, indicating that the books are starting to adjust for Miami's performance.

Furthermore, the Knicks have been a better team at home during the playoffs, going 3-1 with a +6.7 net rating in four home games. Madison Square Garden is also known for being a raucous environment, which could give the Knicks a boost.

Offensively, the Knicks have a clear path to success on the glass as they have the best offensive rebound rate of any team in the playoffs at 35.8%. Led by Jalen Brunson, who is averaging 25.2 points and 5.8 assists per game in the playoffs, the Knicks have a dynamic guard who has scored at least 20 points in every playoff game. Brunson is also generating 26.8 points and 7.0 assists per game in the series against Miami.

Overall, the Knicks were excellent on offense during the regular season, scoring 1.17 points per possession and finishing in the top three of the league in offensive rebound rate and second-chance points. The Knicks also have a history of winning the possession battle, committing a turnover on only 13.1% of offensive possessions in the 2022-23 season.

In summary, while the Knicks are facing elimination, their strong home record during the playoffs, dynamic guard in Jalen Brunson, and offensive prowess give them a chance to cover the 3.5-point spread against Miami in Game 5 at Madison Square Garden.

NBA Player Prop Bets: RJ Barrett Over 19.5 Points (-120)

In the playoffs, Barrett is the second-highest scorer for the Knicks, averaging 21.3 points per game against the Heat this season. In fact, he has scored at least 21 points in five out of his last six games.

While Barrett's efficiency may not always be the highest, his aggression compensates for it. In this series against the Heat, Barrett has attempted an average of 17.3 shots per game for the Knicks, including 6.5 three-pointers. He currently maintains a field goal percentage of 46.4%, and with an average of around 40 minutes per game, he will have ample opportunity to make a difference.

NBA Best Bets Today: Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors - UNDER 225.5 (-105)

  • Date: Wednesday, May 10 | Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
  • Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
  • TV channel: TNT
Betting MarketL.A. LakersGolden State Warriors
Spread+7.5 (-110)-7.5 (-110)
TotalsOver 225.5 (-1150)Under 225.5 (-105)

As the Los Angeles Lakers look to clinch the best-of-seven Western Conference semifinal series against the Golden State Warriors, the UNDER 225.5 (-105) could be a promising bet for this elimination game.

In the last two games, the Under has been successful, with the Golden State Warriors averaging only 99.0 PPG. Additionally, the Under has hit in 5 out of 7 recent Lakers Conference Semifinals games and 4 out of 5 games when playing on a single day of rest. The Under has also hit in 4 out of 5 recent games for the Warriors after a straight-up loss, and in 8 out of 11 games after a non-cover. In six out of the Lakers' last nine games, the total has hit the Under. Moreover, four out of Golden State's last six games also saw the total hit the Under.

The Lakers will likely play more defensive players, with the Warriors focusing on D’Angelo Russell, and Golden State struggles to score inside. This series has trended towards a more defensive style of play. The total has even dropped two points from Game 4 and then dropped another half-point as almost all the money is on the Under for Game 5. This indicates that many people trust the defenses and are hesitant to trust the offenses, making the Under a favorable pick once again.

NBA Player Prop Bets: LeBron James Under 25.5 Points (-118)

LeBron James' points over/under is set at 25.5 points by BetMGM Sportsbook, three points higher than his playoff average this year (22.6).

James' recent high-scoring performance in the previous game has inflated his player point total. However, as the series shifts back to San Francisco, James is expected to regress to his postseason average.

In Game 4, James was primarily guarded by Andrew Wiggins, and he shot only 3-for-8 during the time Wiggins was on him. James' contested field-goal attempts for the game were 6-for-11 (54.5%), indicating that a regression is likely.

When both D'Angelo Russell and Anthony Davis are in the lineup, James has a low-usage role. Interestingly, James has only gone over his Game 5 player prop number twice in his playoff career when starting alongside these two.

Sportsbooks may be counting on bettors to bet on James based on his performance in Game 4, but the smart money is on James regressing back to his playoff average against a Golden State team fighting to stay alive.

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Get the Best Picks & Predictions for NBA Playoffs at 

Looking for expert guidance on NBA picks? Look no further than! Our experienced team of experts is here to provide professional advice to help you make informed decisions. Whether you need help choosing your bets or want to stay up-to-date with the latest NBA news, we've got you covered. Take advantage of our NBA bonuses and start betting with confidence today!


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Absolutely! BetMGM is definitely a top sportsbook offering some of the best NBA futures odds available. As of now, the Denver Nuggets are favored to win the championship with odds of +3000. The Los Angeles Lakers follow behind at +300 while the Philadelphia 76ers follow with +325, Boston Celtics (+400), Phoenix Suns (+1100) and Golden State Warriors (+15100).