NFL Draft Picks: What Trades Could Go Down?
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We’re here — it’s the eve of the 2023 NFL Draft. The rumors are heating up, Reddit is changing betting lines for Will Levis, and multiple veteran players could potentially be on the move following the Green Bay Packers finally trading Aaron Rodgers to the New York Jets.
Speaking of trades, we see them every year in the draft. In 2023, predicting where trades could happen feels more challenging than usual. The top-end talent in this draft is a bit more shallow than in years past, which could result in teams staying put or trying to trade down. This could encourage teams that have the assets to move up to get up and get their guy.
It's not always something the NFL oddsmakers put out, but we're going to look at five trade scenarios that could make sense on draft day. Let’s check them out.
2023 NFL Draft Trade Scenarios
Eagles Trade Up For Jalen Carter
If not for off-the-field concerns and his miserable-looking Pro Day, Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter could make a strong case for the No. 1 overall pick. If the Bears stayed at that pick, seeing them take him wouldn’t have been shocking.
Let’s examine some of the first few picks:
- Carolina Panthers (1): They’re taking a quarterback.
- Houston Texans (2): It’s possible, but with DeMeco Ryans there in his first year, he may want to get his Nick Bosa-like guy or trade down.
- Arizona Cardinals (3): Again, possible, but the red flags on Carter could make the first-year head coach/general manager duo back off.
- Indianapolis Colts (4): They’re also taking a quarterback.
- Seattle Seahawks (5): According to ESPN’s Todd McShay, the team isn’t expected to take him.
- Detroit Lions (6): Based on the off-the-field concerns and not being in shape for the Pro Day, Carter doesn’t strike me as a Dan Campbell guy.
So, after you get through the first six picks, you can see scenarios where teams like the Las Vegas Raiders or Atlanta Falcons might be willing to trade down from No. 7 or No. 8 to the Eagles, who hold No. 10 overall.
The Falcons will likely want to stay put, especially if quarterback Anthony Richardson or running back Bijan Robinson falls to them. The Raiders need plenty of talent, making them prime candidates.
Fortunately, the Eagles won’t likely need to give up much.
Suppose the Eagles add Carter, and he plays up to what we’ve seen of him on tape. In that case, the Eagles will have a monstrous defensive interior with Jordan Davis, Fletcher Cox and Carter.
The Eagles trade No. 10 and No. 62 to the Raiders for No. 7
Seattle Seahawks Trade Up For Hendon Hooker
While the Seahawks own No. 5 and No. 20 overall, they can likely get away with taking those two picks and still getting back into the top 31 selections to take Hooker as the first day rounds out.
The Eagles are a candidate at No. 30, especially in the context of the deal I laid out above. They could gain more trade capital back this year or perhaps something for next year, only to move down a few spots, as the Seahawks trade chip would be No. 37 overall.
Another trade candidate is the Kansas City Chiefs at No. 31.
The contract for Geno Smith could provide the team with an out technically after the 2023 season.
Getting Hooker at the back end of the first round allows you to have the fifth-year option on the 25-year-old quarterback. We’ve seen this happen in the past with Teddy Bridgewater and Lamar Jackson.
Hooker is a prospect that’s more of a Day 2 pick, but it’s understandable to take him here to have that fifth-year flexibility. He was injured in November and will likely need to redshirt the year anyway, which is perfect as it allows Smith to start with ease.
Chiefs trade No. 31 to Seahawks for No. 37, No. 123 and No. 151
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Quarterback Trade Frenzy: Tennessee Trades Up to No. 3, Colts to No. 2
OK, this is a crazy scenario, but hear me out.
Teams will be on the phones all day and night until the start of the draft, giving the Titans a chance to move with the Arizona Cardinals to trade up from No. 11 to No. 3 to get their quarterback. Conversely, they could also move down if they cannot move up. If they did that, they could target Hooker.
If the Titans pull off a trade to get to No. 3, this could prompt the Colts and general manager Chris Ballard to get on the phone and chat with Houston. While these teams are in the division, Houston would likely be OK with this if they’re willing to pass on the quarterback class and they understand the context that the Titans have moved from No. 11 to No. 3 to take a quarterback.
Thus, we would see a run of Bryce Young, Will Levis and then perhaps C.J. Stroud.
It seems the Colts are in on Levis, and he has the top odds to go No. 2 overall, so this makes some sense.
The Titans would certainly need to surrender a future first-round pick. At the same time, the Colts might get away with less because Houston can still get the player they want, which is likely Texas Tech edge rusher Tyree Wilson.
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Steelers Trade Up for Paris Johnson Jr.
The Steelers desperately need offensive line help, and there are multiple spots they could trade up to nab their pick of the litter.
There’s a scenario where no offensive linemen are drafted in the top eight picks, giving the Steelers and Bears a clear path.
Remember, the Bears started with the No. 1 overall pick and could move down again, this time to No. 17, where they could still come away with a player like Darnell Wright, Anton Harrison or Dawand Jones.
Paris Johnson Jr. would immediately help out that offensive line, which will protect quarterback Kenny Pickett and hopefully help give running back Najee Harris a bit of a resurgence.
Expect the Steelers to trade a future first-round pick in this scenario.
Patriots Trade Up For Anthony Richardson
Assuming the scenarios above play out, and three quarterbacks run off the board, the likelihood of Richardson getting drafted sooner rather than later will increase. However, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Lions pass on him at No. 6 for a cornerback, the Falcons pass up on him for Bijan Robinson, or the Raiders stick with Jimmy Garoppolo without any first-round quarterback looming overhead (again).
In these scenarios, the Cardinals would own the No. 11 pick, and they’re not taking a quarterback.
This leaves us with a situation almost too good to be true — a Texans/Patriots swap from No. 12 to No. 14.
The Patriots wouldn’t need to give up much capital, and it’s two teams that are quite familiar with each other as Texans general manager Nick Caserio was with the Patriots from 2001 to 2020 in various roles.
And hey, the trade could even include — you guessed it — quarterback Mac Jones.
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