Orioles vs Rangers ALDS Game 3 Prediction, Odds & MLB Player Props 10/10
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Orioles vs Rangers NLDS Game 3 Picks & Predictions
- ⭐ Pick 1: Texas Rangers -1.5 (+140) at BetMGM
- ⭐ Pick 2: Texas Rangers ML (-142) at Caesars
- ⭐ Pick 3: Nathan Eovaldi Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100) at DraftKings
The Texas Rangers ended the regular season with a lackluster 18-24 record, but they've turned things around in October, clinching victories in all their first four playoff matches.
Tuesday night offers Texas the chance to secure a spot in the American League Championship Series by beating the Baltimore Orioles at home.
Corey Seager made AL/NL postseason history with an unprecedented five walks, complementing Mitch Garver's grand slam, propelling the Rangers to an 11-8 victory on Sunday.
The Rangers now eye a sweep against the Orioles, a feat that Baltimore has impressively avoided for 91 back-to-back series since May 2022.
We've used the best online betting sites to find these bets, including BetMGM, Caesars, and DraftKings.
Below are our top three MLB predictions for today’s slate.
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Orioles vs Rangers Game 2 Recap: Rangers won 11-8
On Sunday, Baltimore's offense impressively rallied with 14 hits to score eight runs.
However, it wasn't sufficient to level the series.
Notable was Jorge Mateo's 4-hit contribution from the 9-hole in Game 2, which made the missed victory all the more exasperating.
In the tail end of the regular season, the Orioles' offense had its challenges, placing 20th in OPS and 23rd in ISO against right-handers.
With their season hanging in the balance, they're up against a tough challenge on Tuesday.
Orioles vs Rangers: Pitching Matchup Game 3
The Twins seem to have the upper hand in pitching, as Sonny Gray faces off against Cristian Javier, who had a shaky second half the Astros hope he's moved past. Houston's challenge will be managing Correa, who consistently excels in crucial October games.
Nathan Eovaldi (Rangers) - 12-5, 3.63 ERA vs Dean Kremer (Orioles) - 13-5, 4.12 ERA
In his 49.2 postseason innings, Nathan Eovaldi boasts a 2.90 ERA, 2.47 FIP, and 0.97 WHIP. Though he faced challenges in the last regular season month, he managed 6.2 innings allowing only one run against the Tampa Bay Rays in the Wild Card round.
However, his performance raised concerns. Eovaldi witnessed a significant amount of hard hits and only got three misses on 20 fastballs. With every splitter, curveball, and cutter in the zone being met with contact, facing Baltimore's proficient offense in Game 3 might challenge his recent success.
Despite Dean Kremer's impressive 13-5 record in 32 starts this year, his other statistics tell a different story: a 4.12 ERA, 4.96 xERA, 4.51 FIP, and 1.31 WHIP. He ranked in the 34th percentile in several metrics in 2023, struggling especially against left-handers with a 5.40 FIP and 1.54 WHIP.
Facing possibly six left-handed Texas batters on Tuesday, it's hard to envision Kremer holding his ground for long.
Orioles vs Rangers Betting Trends
- The Rangers have come away with 67 wins in the 107 contests they have been listed as the favorites in this season.
- This year Texas has won 43 of 69 games when listed as at least -142 on the moneyline.
- The Rangers and their opponents have gone over the total this season in 87 of their 167 opportunities.
- The Rangers are 92-75-0 against the spread in their 167 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.
- The Orioles have gone 43-32 in games they were listed as the moneyline underdog (winning 57.3% of those games).
- Baltimore has a 17-11 record (winning 60.7% of its games) when playing as a moneyline underdog of +120 or longer.
Best Runline Bets Today: Astros vs Twins
⭐ Rangers -1.5 (+140) at BetMGM
The Texas Rangers have consistently demonstrated their prowess this season, emerging as favorites in 112 games and securing victory in 58.9% of them.
When bookmakers have favored them by -141 or more, their win rate jumps to an impressive 60.6%. The current moneyline suggests a 58.5% likelihood of the Rangers clinching a win.
With Texas surpassing the spread in 92 out of 166 games this season, it's a compelling argument that they will cover the -1.5 spread against the Baltimore Orioles in the ALDS.
⭐ Best MLB Pick: Rangers -1.5 (+140) at BetMGM
Best Moneyline Bets Today: Orioles vs Rangers
⭐ Rangers ML (-142) at Caesars
Eovaldi boasts a 2.90 ERA from 12 playoff games and managed to keep the Rays at bay in the wild card, despite some end-of-season turbulence.
Texas' batting lineup, a pillar during the regular season, is firing up in the playoffs, poised to capitalize on Baltimore's weakest starting pitcher in this matchup.
While the youthful Orioles show promise for the future, they currently appear outclassed in the postseason. My bet is on Eovaldi to deliver a strong performance at home, propelling Texas into the ALCS.
⭐ Best MLB Pick: Rangers ML (-142) at Caesars
Best Player Prop Bets Today: Orioles vs Rangers
⭐ Nathan Eovaldi Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100) at DraftKings
Judging by the pricing trends from the wild card game and Tuesday's moneyline, the market seems hesitant to recognize Eovaldi's value.
Texas boasts superior batting, a better starting pitcher, and the advantage of playing at home.
While Baltimore is undoubtedly feeling the pressure of potential elimination, this seems to be influencing market sentiment more than I'd concur with.
Given the Rangers' 2-0 series lead, they're likely to allow Eovaldi more latitude in this start. If he's pitching for at least five innings, I wouldn't bet on his strikeout count exceeding 4.5 with positive odds.
⭐ Best MLB Pick: Nathan Eovaldi Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100) at DraftKings
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