Reds vs. Nationals: Odds, Picks & Predictions for July 4
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Reds vs. Nationals Odds: Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds
- Date: Tuesday, July 4 | Time: 11:05 a.m. ET
- Location: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago
- Probable Pitchers: Reds: Brett Kenedy (0-0, 0.0 ERA); Nationals: Patrick Corbin (5-9, 4.84 ERA, 1.54 WHIP)
- TV channel: MLBTV
BOTTOM LINE: The Cincinnati Reds (46-39) and the Washington Nationals (34-50) collide in a battle between National League foes on the Fourth of July and it's an early start with the first pitch at 11:05 am.
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In the Fourth of July matinee game against the Washington Nationals, the Cincinnati Reds are expected to opt for a bullpen day strategy. The Nationals, on the other hand, will have Patrick Corbin taking the mound who has been having a hard time of it lately.
Corbin has experienced some joy in recent outings, however, considering that he is generally considered one of the pitchers to avoid in MLB. His xERA significantly surpasses his ERA, and he allows notable hard-hit contact.
Considering the shortcomings of both bullpens, with Cincinnati relying on a bullpen game and Washington employing a starting pitcher unlikely to pitch deep into the game, the advantage in this matchup is clearly with the Reds.
Reds Reliant on Relief
At the time of writing, it seems that Brett Kennedy will take the mound for Cincinnati, marking the start of a game where we can expect to see a constant rotation of relievers.
Kennedy's most recent appearance in the majors was with the Padres back in 2018, and he has recorded a 3.71 ERA in eight starts for Louisville in Triple-A this season. However, regardless of his performance, it is unlikely that Cincinnati will grant him a lengthy outing.
The Reds have encountered some difficulties against left-handed pitchers since June 1, with a team wRC+ of 95, although they do possess a .745 OPS. Notably, they have eight active batters with a xwOBA above .320 when facing lefties this season, which is an impressive feat and could pose challenges for Corbin.
While Jake Fraley and Elly De La Cruz have struggled against left-handed pitching, Corbin represents one of the weaker options they could face.
In terms of relief pitching, the Reds have struggled, especially since June 1, exhibiting a 5.53 xFIP during that period. Apart from Fernando Cruz, who has an xFIP below 4.00, the rest of the bullpen has been underperforming. Their strikeout rate of 18.2% and walk rate of 11.2% in relief ranks among the lowest in the league.
Alexis Díaz, with his 2.19 ERA, provides another reliable option, but that still leaves a significant workload of four to five innings that the middle relief corps will need to handle.
Corbin Remains Cold for Nationals
In the month of June, Patrick Corbin has recorded a 4.66 ERA, although he has experienced a few rough outings throughout the season. His 4.84 ERA doesn't reveal that his xERA stands at 6.21 before this game. Moreover, his average exit velocity allowed is 91.3 mph, with a high hard-hit rate of 45.8%. Additionally, his strikeout rate is only 15.3%, while his walk rate sits at 6.7%.
Even when Corbin manages to limit walks, opposing teams have been able to crush his pitches, resulting in few missed bats.
The Nationals' offensive performance has cooled off since the beginning of June. They currently possess an 86 wRC+ and a 4.8% walk rate. However, their sub-20% strikeout rate can work to their advantage when facing a team with a depleted pitching staff. With seven batters boasting a xwOBA above .320 on the season, the Nationals should have opportunities to score against the Reds. Despite not exhibiting the same level of dominance as earlier in the season, they still have the ability to generate runs.
Furthermore, the Nationals' bullpen has been abysmal. Since June 1, they have accumulated a 5.19 xFIP, coupled with a meager 18.2% strikeout rate and a 11.3% walk rate. They are prone to issuing free passes to batters while struggling to generate strikeouts.
Reds vs. Nationals Betting Pick
Both of these pitching staffs are bad. The Reds have a little bit of an excuse with the injuries, but either way, runs are bound to be scored in this game.
Even though the Nationals have not been the best over the last month or so, they have enough to outscore the Reds. Patrick Corbin is having a tough time of it and the Reds might just make the most of that here.
PICK: Over 9.5 runs @ -105
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As the excitement of sports betting takes a new turn with the launch of KY sportsbooks this September, fans are eagerly awaiting the face-off between the Reds and the Nationals on July 4. This article provides an in-depth analysis of the game, offering predictions and odds to help you make informed bets.
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