Super Bowl Picks: Who is The Best Bet to Win the Lombardi Trophy?
I always enjoy, just as you do, making prognostications for the most unpredictable sport on the planet, the NFL.
As the great Actor Al Pacino surmised in one of the most popular football movies of all time, On Any Given Sunday, I do expect this season to be filled with more underdogs winning than in any recent season.
Super Bowl Not Likely a Repeat
So, let’s skip ahead five months or so and look into my crystal ball to see who survived the regular season by keeping their stars on the field and not in the training rooms and winning the Super Bowl.
Based on the last 20 NFL seasons there is a 40% probability that either the reigning Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams or runner-up Cincinnati Bengals will not make the playoffs this season.
Of the 40 teams, some repeaters, that have played in the past 20 Super Bowls, 16 of them, or 40%, failed to make the playoffs.
The futures market for each team’s regular season win total also allows us to scratch more teams off the Super Bowl participant list.
Rarely does an NFL team post three consecutive seasons in which they won more games than their regular season wins total line. However, when we talk about underperforming teams, such as the New York Giants, who have not won more games than their regular season wins total in the past five seasons, we see the opportunities.
I think the Giants will have their best season of the past five, but not enough to propel them to the NFC Conference Championship.
Super Bowl LVII Favorites
The Buffalo Bills are the darlings of most bettors coming into the season. But in the past two seasons, they have gone over the wins futures total.
So, in a contrarian flavor, I do not share that same enthusiasm for the Bills as the betting public does. Scratch off the Bills from the Super Bowl participant invite list.
Who do I like in the AFC? My bet is the Los Angeles Chargers at +850 as offered at FanDuel Sportsbook.
They have the quarterback in Justin Herbert who seems to get better and better and they will have one of the best defenses in the AFC and the entire NFL.
My bet to win the NFC Championship is the San Francisco 49ers. I think they will have the best defense in the NFL. They also have the X-factor in quarterback Trey Lance, who I think will take a massive step forward under coach Kyle Shanahan.
Let’s not forget that over the past three seasons, no defense has allowed fewer yards than the 49ers.
Super Bowl LVII Pick
So, my Super Bowl participants are the San Francisco 49ers vs. the Los Angeles Chargers with the game lined at pick-em and a 52.5-point total.
I am 18-5 against the spread in Super Bowl bets.
The 49ers are +350 to reach the NFC Championship game and the Chargers are +390 to reach the AFC Championship game. San Francisco is +1600 to win the Super Bowl and the Chargers are +1400.
The best part of this is you can get +7000 at FanDuel that the Chargers will square off against the 49ers in the Super Bowl and I am putting three pizza-sized bets on that opportunity.
My pick to win it all? The Chargers. I like the odds they're getting, especially with their potent offense and an improving defense.
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