UFC Predictions: Luque vs. Dos Anjos UFC Odds & UFC Fight Night Picks

Date IconLast Updated: Aug 9th, 2023
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UFC Predictions: Luque vs. Dos Anjos UFC Odds & UFC Fight Night Picks
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UFC Predictions & Luque vs. Dos Anjos UFC Picks:

The UFC heads back to the UPC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, this Saturday night for another UFC Fight Night. The six-bout main card, as well as the seven-fight undercard, will be again on the family of ESPN networks. Streaming options are available via ESPN+. UFC Predictions spotlights the main event between Vincente Luque and Rafael Dos Anjos.

The action from the main card commences at 9:00 pm ET and ends with the main event of Luque vs. Dos Anjos. Regarding the best online betting sites, BetMGM, FanDuel, and Caesars are bringing some nice numbers for this event. UFC fight night predictions expect this to be a fierce night, with the main event being a welterweight fight. Finally, UFC picks hope to bring home some extra cash.

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Vicente Luque vs. Rafael Dos Anjos UFC Odds, Details & Form:

The Vicente Luque and Rafael Dos Anjos main event likely will not begin until around 11:15 or 11:30, but here are more particulars below on the UFC Fight Night from Las Vegas.

  • 🏟 Location: UFC Apex - Las Vegas, NV 
  • 📅 Date: Saturday, August 12th, 2023, at 9:00 pm ET
  • 🕙 Time: 9 p.m. PM ET
  • 🥊 Main Event: Vicente Luque vs. Rafael Dos Anjos
  • 🔥 Top Favorite: Rafael Dos Anjos (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook
  • 📊 Fighter Stats: Vicente Luque (21-9-1, 11 KOs, 8 submissions)
    Rafael Dos Anjos (32-14, 5 KOs, 11 submissions)
  • 💸 Prize Money: $50,000 performance bonus for Performance of the Night
  • 📺 TV Channel: ESPN/ESPN+

Vicente Luque Form Prior to UFC Vegas 78

Vicente Luque has dropped his last two fights after winning four straight bouts. He comes in after getting knocked out via punches by Geoff Neal. 

The unanimous decision defeat to Belai Muhammad was not as shocking. Fans and experts scored that as an easy win against the Westwood, New Jersey native. The #10 ranked Welterweight was expected to fight Rafael Dos Anjos on July 15th, but the fight was moved to Saturday for unknown reasons. 

Luque’s style of fighting lends well to some brutal results. His fights are usually entertaining, win or lose. Luque landed fewer strikes versus five of his past six opponents. The fact that he enjoys a six-inch reach advantage against Dos Anjos (76 vs. 70) and is seven years younger is significant. However, Dos Anjos cannot be taken lightly.

Vicente Luque to win by decision (+200) at FanDuel  makes some sense. One slight weakness is that the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu fighter has been vulnerable to takedowns and punching combinations. His last two bouts saw him get taken down six times. Luque by knockout/submission could be worth a look as well, but the safe +105 moneyline is another route.

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Rafael Dos Anjos Form Prior to UFC Vegas 78

Rafel Dos Anjos is an Orthodox fighter with a 70-inch reach. Again, his ground attack is well-versed as he has 11 submissions, mostly from his grappling Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Muay-Thai styles. He has won three of his previous four fights, but two came via a decision that lends to age concerns. He has 26 decisions in 46 total bouts. 

Betting for a decision on points comes in at +175 on BetMGM. This Brazilian fighter may be able to take advantage of a more vulnerable than usual Luque. Luque was only cleared recently to fight. Some believe he suffered more than a brain bleed against Neal in his last bout. Can an older veteran like Dos Anjos take advantage of that?

So, the chances of a win by knockout or submission (+500) on FanDuel for Dos Anjos are enticing. Again, a decision may be more likely, given that Dos Anjos's takedown defense rate of 59 and overall defense of 60%. Dos Anjos may want to grind Luque since his submissions are less lethal. Something to keep an eye on is the Over 4.5 round prop (+110 on BetMGM). Does that change or come off the board?

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Vicente Luque vs. Rafael Dos Anjos UFC Best Bets

Below are a few UFC predictions on the main event for Saturday night from Las Vegas.

UFC Best Bet #1: Vicente Luque to win (+105) at Caesars  

The east part is that this bet only worries about the win. The Welterweight knows even lesser bouts; perhaps retirement is on the horizon if he loses this fight. Luckily, he gets an opponent in Dos Anjos, where the Jersey native should know what to expect. UFC fight night best bets like that as a safe option. 

Another reason to go with the moneyline is simple. Shopping around did not offer the same return as normal. For perspective, only FanDuel was worse off at EVEN. Could these numbers move a little more by Saturday? Bluntly, this all seems like we are in a holding pattern. Hence, Luque vs. Dos Anjos UFC Predictions side with the younger Luque.

⭐ UFC Vegas 78 Picks: Vicente Luque to win (+105 at Caesars) at Caesars 


UFC Best Bet #2: Rafael Dos Anjos by Decision (+190) at FanDuel 

Again, the 38-year-old Dos Anjos has developed a well-rounded attack through the years. However, that six-inch reach disadvantage will force the fighter to try and grind things down to a halt. Now, when they fought in 2016, Luque was a much stronger puncher, and Dos Anjos got caught and tagged often. Luque vs. Dos Anjos UFC Predictions ponders the idea that the older fighter might have learned a thing or two since then.

Media believes that Luque is close to 100% for this fight, but there is a sneaking suspicion that this is untrue. This fight could see more groundwork and “feeling out” than expected. UFC fight night best bets see another safer plus-money wager here.

⭐ UFC Vegas 78 Picks: Rafael Dos Anjos By Decision (+190) at FanDuel  


UFC Best Bet #3: Go Over 4.5 Rounds (+110) at BetMGM 

Going another easy route, what is the most sensible outcome for Saturday night? One of them may be a decision after all. Going further down the round props seems too daunting of a task. Again, both fighters are not at their best here. Again, Luque and Dos Anjos value a win more than anything else. Hence, UFC fight night best bets sees potential here.

The rationale is to bet very small on this bout as a whole. Sometimes playing it safe is just for the best. This Luque vs. Dos Anjos UFC Prediction lends itself to being more conservative than usual. Again, look for a will the fight go the distance prop. That may be a bit more plus-money.

UFC Vegas 78 Picks: Fight goes over 4.5 rounds (+110) at BetMGM 


Vicente Luque vs. Rafael Dos Anjos UFC Vegas 78 Predictions & Final Thoughts

This Vegas finale on Saturday night features a lot of unknowns. Maybe there is that unexpected result for those watching on ESPN and ESPN+, but that feels less and less likely. With two fighters trying to extend their careers, there is always that concern of an underwhelming main event, which is why UFC fight night predictions side with Luque but not by knockout or submission.

Furthermore, Dos Anjos does not like to be on his feet much anymore. That lends to our UFC picks tipping to a Luque or Dos Anjos decision . The problem is, again, what is heard and told instead of what we have seen. Luque was beaten senseless in his previous fight. That late clearance plants seeds of doubt for him and even Dos Anjos. 

Do not be surprised to see a lot of groundwork if neither fighter can catch each other in a lapse. In the end, Luque seems to have more in the tank come Round 5.

UFC Vegas 78 Best Bet: ⭐ Vicente Luque to win (+105 at Caesars) at Caesars Sportsbook  

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