Who Will Win American Idol?

Date IconLast Updated: Apr 18th, 2023
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Who Will Win American Idol?

The American Idol contestants headed to Hawaii in the latest two episodes, as they sang for the public's votes for the first time. 

None of the wannabes were sent home in the April 16 and 17 doubleheader episodes, which came from Disney's Aulani Resort in Hawaii. 

All 26 remaining contestants performed over the two nights, as viewers were invited to pick out their favorites ahead of season 21's doubleheader on Sunday, April 23 and Monday, April 24. 

Coming up, Sunday, the 26 contestants are expected to be whittled down to a Top 20, and on the following night, they will compete to make up the Top 12. 

While none of the contestants were eliminated in the latest two episodes, they certainly didn't lack any excitement.

Monday's show ended with some controversy as some of the studio audience booed judge Katy Perry.

What's more, singer Paige Anne - who was previously eliminated during Hollywood Week - was brought back by judges Perry, Luke Bryan and Lionel Richie after a singer dropped out. 

With these hypothetical odds provided by industry sports betting experts, we've looked at which wannabes might have what it takes to be crowned this year's American Idol champion. 

Who Will Win American Idol?

Contestant Odds Implied Probability
Nutsa +300 25%
Iam Tongi +400 20%
Zachariah Smith +500 16.7%
Wé Ani +600 14.3%
Warren Peay +650 13.3%
Elijah McCormick +700 12.5%
Colin Stough +700 12.5%
Matt Wilson +750 11.8%
Tyson Venegas +800 11.1%
Oliver Steele +1000 9.1%
Lucy Love +1200 7.7%
Haven Madison +1200 7.7%
Nailyah Serenity +1400 7.1%
Megan Danielle +1300 6.7%
Kaeyra +1400 6.7%
Marybeth Byrd +1500 6.3%
Emma Bussee +1500 6.3%
Paige Anne +1600 5.9%
Hannah Nicolaisen +1600 5.9%
Olivia Soli +1800 5.3%
Dawson Wayne +2000 4.8%
Elise Kristine +2200 4.3%
Michael Williams +2500 3.8%
Pjae +3000 3.2%
Malik Heard +4000 2.4%
Mariah Faith +5000 2%

Nutsa Lead American Idol Odds 

Nutsa leads the way as the favorite to win this year's American Idol at +300, with a 25% implied probability, after closing episode 12 with plenty of audience support.

Following her energetic performance of 'Paris (Ooh La La)' on Monday night, which included the star doing squat drops, judge Perry wasn't quite as keen as some of the audience members. 

She told Nutsa: "Every time you take the stage, it’s like you glitter bomb the stage. Listen, I think that one thing that I personally would like to see from you is not one piece of glitter the next time. I know that’s gonna be hard."

Perry was subsequently booed by the crowd for the first time in six seasons, and she poked fun at the reaction. 

While Nutsa has proved popular with the audience, she has a long way to go before winning American Idol. 

Iam Tongi is narrowly behind the star at +400, with a 20% implied probability. 

The star must have felt at home while closing Sunday night's episode, as he hails from Hawaii, and he certainly impressed the judges with his performance of 'Don’t Let Go' by Spawnbreezie.

Richie likened Tongi's performance to a "spiritual experience," and Perry said he represented his state well and was "authentic through and through." 

American Idol Contestants Called 'Crazy Talented' and 'A Star'

Perry was also full of superlatives for third favorite Zachariah Smith, who is +500, describing him as "crazy talented" after his performance of 'Lucille' by Little Richard, while Wé Ani, the +600 fourth favorite to triumph, was called "a star" by the judge. 

Warren Peay surprised the judges and the audience by singing Adele's 'Set Fire to the Rain,' but it appears to have done him no harm, as the contestant is +650 for victory. 

Elsewhere, Elijah McCormick (+700) was told by Perry that he "nailed" his performance, and he sits level with Colin Stough (+700) in the betting, while they are narrowly ahead of Matt Wilson (+750), whose rendition of 'Speechless' by Dan + Shay went down well with judge Bryan. 

He told the wannabe: "You’ve always been one of my favorite singers in the competition."

Lucy Love certainly sounds like a pop star, and at +1200, she could be one to look out for, particularly after Richie said she "belongs" on the stage. 

But he was even more impressed with Nailyah Serenity (+1300), calling her rendition of 'Lovin’ You' by Minnie Riperton "next level."

Check out the latest Masked Singer Odds!!

Who are the American Idol Dark Horse Contestants? 

Despite her show reprieve, Paige - the 16-year-old star who was eliminated earlier in the season before being brought back by the judges - looks to be an outsider to win the competition. 

She is a big +1600 to win this year's series, a few places behind Megan Danielle (+1400), who knocked her out in Hollywood Week. 

Of the competition's long shots, Mariah Faith may need to step it up on Sunday night's episode if she is to make the Top 20. 

She is currently +5000 to win the series, with just a 2% implied probability, after singing 'You Should Probably Leave,' which Faith will no doubt hope is not a hidden message about her time in the contest. 

She sits just behind Malik Heard in the betting at +4000. Despite his big price, Perry suggested during the show that he could be a "dark horse" of the series, which will give him hope of overcoming his odds.