What We Learned After Week 1 of College Football
Through Week 1 of the 2022 NCAA Football season, home teams went 89-25 straight-up (SU) for 78% wins, 68-45-1 against-the-spread (ATS), and 80-33-1 Over-Under for 70% winning Over bets.
Since 2006, only Week 1 of the 2015 season saw the home team cover the spread at a higher rate at 61% than last weekend.
The lowest home team ATS record was in the 2016 season when home teams covered the spread at a 43% win rate on a 34-42 ATS record. So, the market had home teams significantly undervalued and we might see an overreaction in the Week 2 odds markets.
The SEC Conference posted a dominant 15-1 SU record and covered the spread at a 75% clip. They had a 12-4 ATS record, including an 11-5 Over-Under record, good for 69% winning Over bets.
Only LSU lost and that was to Florida State. It marked the fourth season that SEC teams lost just one game in Week 1 action. SEC teams outscored their opponents by an average of 28 points per game.
The Big 12 went 7-1 SU for 89% wins, 6-2 ATS for 75% wins, and 7-1 Over-Under for 89% winning Over bets.
The Big Ten went 12-3 SU for 80% wins, 9-6 ATS for 60% wins, and 7-8 Over-Under for 47% winning Under bets.
Despite No. 11 Oregon getting hammered 49-3 and failing to cover the spread by 29.5 points against No. 3 Georgia, and No. 7 Utah losing to unranked Florida 29-26 as 2.5-point favorites at the Swamp, the PAC-12 went 9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS for 62% with a 10-3 Over-Under record good for 77% winning Over bets.
The highest scoring non-overtime game in Week 1 was the wacky North Carolina 63-61 win as a 2.5-point underdog over Appalachian State in which 62 points were scored in the fourth quarter. Appalachian State had 40 of those points.
The 40 points allowed was a program worst for North Carolina and eclipsed the 24 fourth-quarter points allowed in a 41-27 loss as a 10-point underdog against then-No. 5 ranked Texas A&M in the Orange Bowl in 2021.
How Did Double-Digit NCAA Underdogs Perform in Week 1?
Underdogs priced between 10 and 19.5 points went 5-28 SU for 15% wins, 13-19-1 ATS for 41% winning bets and 24-9 Over-Under good for 73% winning Over wagers.
This implies that had you bet the favorites priced between 10 and 19.5 points, you would have won 59% of those bets ATS.
How Did NCAA Underdogs of 17.5 or More Points Do in Week 1?
Recently, we referenced how 17.5 or more underdogs have fared. Since 2006, 310 underdogs of 17.5 or more points have won the game.
There were 47 games involving a dog of 17.5 or more points last weekend and they went 0-47 SU and 19-28 ATS for 40% winning bets, including a 28-18-1 Over-Under result good for 61% winning Under bets.
How Will Week 1 Results Affect this Week's Games?
The sportsbooks will adjust their lines anticipating even more public money coming in on favorites in Week 2.
This will provide high percentage betting opportunities for us to back underdogs in specific situations.
Look for my upcoming articles each day this week that will identify these betting opportunities.
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