What We Learned from Week 10 NFL Results
We learned that for any NFL franchise to go through an entire season undefeated is a topic essentially not worth the effort, given the parity in the league.
The Philadelphia Eagles were dominated by the last place, but 5-5, Washington Commanders in a 32-21 home loss priced as an 11.5-point favorite. The Commanders covered the spread by 22 points, which was the greatest margin to the spread of any game in Week 10.
The Vikings are the Real Deal
The Minnesota Vikings and Buffalo Bills put on a terrific show for NFL fans, which had a bit of everything, earning my early nod for the Game of the Year.
The Vikings' 33-30 overtime win served notice to the league that these two teams could well meet again in Super Bowl 57.
Minnesota's Justin Jefferson became the first wide receiver to record 20 games in which he gained 100 or more receiving yards in his first three seasons in the league.
Jefferson had a terrific game against Buffalo, catching 12 balls for 128 yards. The final 12 minutes, including overtime, was a barrage of relentless remarkable plays and momentum shifts that exemplify this season.
How do Undefeated Teams Do Following Their First Loss?
I already like the Indianapolis Colts +7.5 pints when they host the Eagles in Week 11.
Teams coming off their first loss of the season after winning at least their first eight games of the regular season and priced as road favorites between 3.5 and 9.5 points have produced a 10-9 straight up record and 7-12 against the spread (37%) record and a solid 12-6-1 Over-Under, good for 67% winning Over bets.
So, for those who love betting teasers, this is one of the best early-week opportunities I have seen all season.
Tease the Colts and the Over.
What Else Did We Learn?
Through 10 weeks of NFL games, underdogs have gone 58-88-1 (40%) straight-up (SU), 81-62-4 (57%) against-the-spread (ATS), including a profitable 61-84-2 Over-Under record good for 58% winning Under bets.
Home underdogs are 25-32-1 (44%) SU, 33-22-3 ATS for 60% winning bets, and a solid 16-41-1 Over-Under record good for 72% winning Under bets.
Home favorites are 56-31 (64%) SU, 38-47-2 ATS for 45% winners, and a 43-44 Over-Under record good for 49% winning Under bets.
Home teams lined between the 3’s (between a 3-point favorite and a 3-point underdog) are 27-29 SU (48%) and 25-27-4 ATS (48%), and a 21-35 Over-Under record, good for 62% winning Under bets.
Home teams taking on a divisional rival are 31-14-1 SU (69%), 24-22 ATS for 52%, and a 14-31-1 Over-Under record good for 69% winning Under bets.
Teams coming off a double-digit loss to the spread are 28-25 SU (53%), 26-24-3 ATS for 52%, and a 22-31 Over-Under record for 58% winning Under bets.
Road dogs playing their last game before their bye week against a divisional opponent have earned a 13-13 SU record, 17-9 ATS for 65.4% winning bets, including a 9-16 Over-Under good for 64% winning Under bets over the last 10 seasons. There are no active teams for this week, but on the horizon, in Week 13, the Saints will be on the road against the Bucs as a 6.5-point underdog.
I recommended a bet on the Saints at -6 points last week, expecting the line to move higher ahead of this game. The current line is at 6.5 points, and I do anticipate this line continuing its’ march to -7.5 points.
The Situational Trends and Angles for Week 11
- Bet on any team averaging 30 or fewer rushes per game
- That team is coming off an upset road win
- That team did not have more than a 6-minute edge in time-of-possession
- The current opponent averages 32 or more minutes in time-of-possession
- The opponent has a winning record on the season
This set of situational parameters has combined to produce a highly profitable 24-23 (51%) record and a 31-15-1 (67%) ATS mark, good for 67.4% winning bets, including a 22-23-2 (49%) Over-Under record good for 49% winning Under bets last 15 seasons.
This algorithm makes the Detroit Lions an active road underdog when they travel to take on the New York Giants in Week 11.
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