Betting Opens on Joe Biden Completing Full Term of Presidency
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UK betting sites are finally beginning to push Joe Biden alongside Donald Trump in the race to be the next US president.
The bookies have all-but closed their markets that speculated on Mr Biden completing his first term in the Oval Office.
Focus now switches to November’s election, with Mr Biden set to take on Donald Trump in an all-or-nothing contest that is likely to swamp American news coverage.
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Mr Biden has trailed his adversary in the political betting markets for the best part of two years. Mr Trump’s ability to capture the media focus and the growth of his base beyond MAGA supporters means he has a real chance of winning the next election.
Yet in recent weeks the bookies have started shifting on Mr Biden and finally some are pushing him level with the frontrunner.
Indeed, very soon the Democrat may become favourite to win on November 5.
Joe Biden Odds
Betfred were one of the first bookies to act by levelling out the odds for the Democrat and Republican picks. Both are now priced at 11/10 – odds that carry a 47.6% probability.
Those odds roughly correlate with recent polling that suggests both candidates are on 44%.
No-one else is realistically now in the running. The bookies have a tentative price of 20/1 for Michelle Obama to win the race.
This would involve Mr Biden having to bow out due to ill health. Bookmakers don’t think this is likely and most have closed their markets on that eventuality.
Will Biden Beat Trump?
The shift in Mr Biden’s odds comes at a pivotal month in this election cycle. The president is overseeing a huge international crisis as the war in Gaza threatens to draw more nations into the conflict.
Russia remains an aggressor to Europe and is pummelling Ukraine with long-range missiles. There appears no end in sight to that war.
Then there is America’s relationship with China and Taiwan – a complicated battle of diplomatic wits is playing out as the US tries to deter China from expanding into friendly territories.
Mr Trump, meanwhile, is facing his own battles. His court case regarding alleged cover-up payments to an adult movie star over an affair in the 2000s has begun. Mr Trump hasn’t been overly successful in the courts as yet and there are more criminal cases to come this year.
However, his popularity spikes every time he appears in front of a judge and this has helped fuel expectation that he will beat Mr Biden in November.
Bettors are piling in on Mr Trump, with almost two-thirds of the entire presidential betting market backing the Republican to win. Mr Biden carries just 21.8% of the pie.
This may look good for Mr Trump but it actually highlights how well Mr Biden is doing. That’s because betting apps shorten their odds when bettors back a candidate.
So, the fact Mr Biden is priced alongside Mr Trump despite commanding three times less of the market means he’s in a good place. Mr Trump’s odds are over-performing to account for the weight of bets in his favour.
Of course, bookmakers won’t dictate the 2024 US presidential election result but they – and the polls – give us a good indication of where both candidates are at.
Mr Biden has lagged for a long time but is now making up ground. Maintain the pace through the summer, keep the economy stable, and settle tensions in the Middle East, and Mr Biden will be well positioned come the autumn.
Mr Trump, meanwhile, needs to stay out of prison and, ideally, win some of the criminal cases that have chewed up much of his campaign preparation.
This is certainly possible and, should he win one case, then he will earn a huge bump in the polls.
For now, though, Mr Biden cannot afford to rely on being the “Not Trump” candidate this autumn. He has a lot of work to do to convince voters he deserves four more years in office.
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