Betting Opens on Joe Biden Completing Full Term of Presidency
Joe Biden is expected to oversee a humbling US midterms defeat for the Democrats this year, but betting sites don’t expect the president to be ousted from office before 2024.
Biden's polling figures are continuing to fall as the president struggles to get the American economy back on its feet following the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Issues around inflation, international policy, abortion rights and public spending have dogged Biden’s administration for months. So much so that there is a very real likelihood of the Democrats losing both the House and Senate in November’s midterm elections.
The Dems had been hoping to see a bounce in the polls heading into the middle of Biden’s first term as president – but all arrows are pointing to a difficult two years to come, until the 2024 election campaign ramps up.
And Biden is performing so poorly that UK bookmakers have set a one-in-three chance that he could lose the presidency before his term is up.
Joe Biden Odds
According to political betting sites, Biden is more likely to remain in power that somehow lose control of the White House before the next election. However, the fact a market is even open on this possibility exposes just how vulnerable his position is.
To give that position some context, Donald Trump was priced at roughly the same odds of 2/1 to be axed from office during his presidency. Trump was twice impeached and twice acquitted, first for an accusation of abuse of power, and the second for infighting insurrection.
It’s unlikely Biden would ever be confronted with such allegations, but the fact the Republicans are on course to control the House and Senate could well make his life difficult.
Indeed, the NY Times report that the president’s legal team is already preparing for a barrage of investigations as soon as there is a GOP majority in Congress.
Who Will Run For President In 2024?
While Biden is still expected to serve a full first term, questions have been raised over his viability of running again in 2024.
The 79-year-old would be 82 come election day and his physical wellness has been persistently scrutinised by Trump and his critics in recent months.
When Biden initially won the Democratic nomination for the 2020 election, the scrutiny began over his physical and mental wellbeing, with Trump branding the former vice-president “Sleepy Joe”.
Right now, bookmakers aren’t sure he will run for a second term. In fact, their odds suggest a 58% chance that he will not seek re-election.
So who would run in Biden’s place? Let’s have a look at the 2024 US election odds.
His vice president Kamala Harris is the highest-priced alternative Democrat at 11/1 to win the next election. Those are remarkably high odds for a figure who was expected to replace Biden once this first term was over.
The Dems appear more concerned, however, about who is the best fit to beat Trump in 2024, rather than who would be the better president heading into the next electoral cycle.
Biden is at 9/2 with bet365 to win the 2024 election, with Trump sitting as the 3/1 favourite.
Trump’s only real rival for the GOP nomination is Florida governor Ron DeSantis, whose odds have come in to 6/1.
As for other Democrats, Pete Buttigieg is floating out at 25/1 with Ladbrokes, with Michelle Obama sitting behind him at 40/1.
There really does appear to be a paucity of candidates for the Dems right now – and that’s probably why Trump, as one of just two realistic GOP picks, is so heavily favoured in the betting markets.
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