French Election Betting Has Macron Favourite But Le Pen Closing In

Article By Joe Short

Last Updated: 24 Feb 2021

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French Election Betting Has Macron Favourite But Le Pen Closing In

Emmanuel Macron is the firm favourite to win the 2022 French presidential election but the latest politics betting odds suggest Marine Le Pen could challenge the incumbent come polling day.

President Macron claimed victory in the 2017 French election with 66% of the vote against populist Le Pen and her National Rally party.

Macron has overseen a turbulent few years in French politics, while Brexit, Donald Trump and the state of the European Union have been at the forefront of international diplomacy.

More recently his overseeing of France’s coronavirus lockdowns and relief efforts are considered a gauge of how the electorate could vote in May 2022.

The 43-year-old, who became France’s youngest president when he surged to victory four years ago, is benefitting in recent polls largely thanks to a lack of conjoined opposition from the right of the French Parliament.

French Election Betting

But the En Marche leader is likely to be keeping an eye on Le Pen as the next election draws near.

According to the latest French politics betting odds, Macron is the 3/4 favourite to win the election. That gives his chances of success an implied probability of 57%. Ms Le Pen, meanwhile, has seen her odds come in to 10/3 in recent days – a not-insignificant probability of 23%.

Election day may still be over a year to come but the slimming of Le Pen’s odds serves as a reminder that Macron does not have this vote sewn up.

In fact, 28% of all bets on this market are siding with Le Pen, which indicates bettors are predicting a right-wing rise in French politics over the coming months.

Economy & Identity Key To 2022 French Election

Next year’s election campaign of the EU’s second-largest economy is expected to focus on money and identity.

Le Pen’s populist success in the previous election was reflected in a national turn to the right on cultural and identity issues – and these may only have intensified over recent years.

Macron himself is from a financial background and so France’s success in reviving its economy from the impact of Covid-19 will also play a major part in the election trail. Much like the rest of the world, France is bracing itself for a recession once its financial relief packages come to an end. And austerity often leads to populism.

Meanwhile, away from the two figureheads of the next French election is Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the 69-year-old leader of the France Unbowed party. The head of the far-left organisation is considered by some as France’s answer to Jeremy Corbyn, although he has also been dubbed a ‘communist firebrand’ by right-wing news outlets. Mélenchon is 22/1 to be named president of France next year.