US Senate Election Betting: Republicans Tipped For Narrow Majority

UK betting sites expect the Republicans to win a majority in the Senate this November, even if Kamala Harris is elected as the next United States president.

Harris has surged in the polls since replacing Joe Biden as the Democrat ticket, while Donald Trump is scrambling to recover ground lost in the race.

Americans won’t only vote for their next president on November 5 but must also decide on their state Senate and House representatives.

There are 100 Senate seats, with 34 up for grabs in 2024. The Democrats and independents hold 23 of these 34 seats, which means the Republicans need to win 13 – a net gain of two – to secure a majority.

New betting sites recently launched their Senate election odds and have fallen on the side of the GOP.

And it looks increasingly likely that the Republicans will land a Senate majority regardless of who is elected president.

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US Senate Betting Odds

According to the latest William Hill odds, the Republicans are 4/11 favourites to win a Senate majority. The Democrats are lingering at 9/4.

This suggests a 73.3% chance of the GOP securing a majority in the upper chamber of the US Congress.

The Republicans last had a majority in 2018 under Trump. 

Since then the Dems have held slim majorities, propped up by independents. Indeed, VP Harris has had to cast the deciding vote over the past two years to force legislation through a 50/50 split Senate.

Not every Senate seat is aligned with the US presidential and midterm election cycle. Therefore only 34 seats are in play here.

And it just so happens that more Democrat seats are up for grabs.

No wonder, then, that betting apps are favouring a Republican majority here.

Will The Republicans Win The Senate?

Indeed, it looks almost impossible for the Democrats to retain a hold on the Senate right now. Split Ticket analysis suggests there are 10 safe Republican seats in states like Tennessee and Wyoming, two likely seats in Florida and Texas, and a GOP lean in Montana.

That would be enough to tick the bar over to 51 Republican seats.

The Democrats, meanwhile, have 16 relatively safe seats and four that lean towards them. Even if the Dems win the one toss-up in Ohio, they would fall short on 49 seats.

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Yet there is still hope for the Democrats. Campaigners are pushing hard in Texas and Florida to get their candidates over the line. 

Abortion rights have become a big topic in both states – so much so, in fact, that some believe Florida could become a swing state in the presidential election.

Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is the Democrats’ pick to face incumbent Republican Rick Scott in Florida. Polling suggests Scott has a three-point lead but that’s within the margin of error.

In Texas, former pro football player Colin Allred is up against Ted Cruz, who leads by two points in the latest poll. That’s a big shift from the 14-point lead Cruz enjoyed back in February.

Florida and Texas have become GOP heartlands in recent years but abortion is a broader political issue that the Democrats have seized on. 

More women vote in US elections than men and reproductive rights are top of many peoples’ agenda following the Supreme Court’s overruling of Roe vs Wade.

If the Dems campaign well then they could steal one of these two contested seats. However, they would also need to hold their current seats and snag Ohio.

From here, it looks like a tall order. But if Harris can continue her trajectory in the polls then Democratic Senate candidates across the country may see their numbers rise too.