Oscar Predictions 2024
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It's that time of year again with the usual buzz around some films that are expected to win. This year it's Oppenheimer. Then there are the disappointments and snubs. Yes, Barbie. We're talking about Barbie. Then there are those films that are under the radar and have generated quite a bit of interest throughout the awards season. We'll go through our final predictions for this weekend's predicted winners.
96th Acaemy Awards: What to Know
- Date: Sun, Mar 10, 2024
- Time: 7:00 p.m. – 10:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Los Angeles' Dolby Theatre
- Host: Jimmy Kimmel
- Where to Watch: CTV, ABC
Best Picture Predictions
Nominees:
- American Fiction
- Anatomy of a Fall
- Barbie
- The Holdovers
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Maestro
- Oppenheimer
- Past Lives
- Poor Things
- The Zone of Interest
The biggest surprise in this category is if Universal Pictures' Oppenheimer doesn't win. US sportsbooks have predicted this well before the nominations even came out. Given their success during awards season, it's very likely. They've already received Best Picture at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards as well as Best Ensemble at the Screen Actor's Guild Awards.
We cannot forget to mention Barbie as a possible contender but bookmakers predict that it's not very likely to win the award. There was already disappointment expressed by many when Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie were not shortlisted for best director and best actress respectively.
Post Barbenheimer craze last July, the achievements and successes have been quite varied. Barbie was a hit and joined the billion-dollar box office club, making Greta Gerwig the first female director to do so, even receiving the Box Office Achievement award at Golden Globes. However, Oppenheimer has been more popular during the awards season.
Despite the low chances of winning Best Picture and as it's Women's Day, it's worth celebrating Barbie's nomination in this category. Greta Gerwig became the first female director to have 3 films nominated for best picture (Lady Bird and Little Women).
If the pattern repeats itself for the Best Picture Oscar winners, Oppenheimer, could sweep up many awards as Everything Everywhere All At Once did last year.
🎬 Best Bet: 1.03 Oppenheimer at BetMGM 🏆
Best Actress
Nominees:
- Annette Benning (Nyad)
- Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
- Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)
- Carey Mulligan (Maestro)
- Emma Stone (Poor Things)
When the nominees were announced, many were disappointed with Margot Robbie being excluded from the short list of nominees.
This category will be a little harder to predict. This year's favourites seem to be Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone. While this is Gladstone's first nomination, Stone already has an Oscar for her La La Land performance and was previously nominated twice as supporting actress. So far both actresses have won a Golden Globe, Lily Gladstone has a SAG award and Emma Stone has a Critics Choice Award.
Oddsmakers seem to favour Lily Gladstone in this category. Were she to win, she would be the first Native American woman to take home an Academy Award. If Emma Stone wins, it would mean that the Poor Things director would have a superb track record for his leading ladies. Back in 2019 Olivia Colman won this award for her performance in Yorgos Lanthimos' The Favourite.
We have a dark horse here and it is Sandra Hüller. She is in two Oscar-nominated films: Anatomy of a Fall and Zone of Interest. Her nomination is for the former, but her performances for both have received plenty of praise. Should she win, it would be an interesting twist.
Best Actress nominee Annette Bening and Carey Mulligan have lower chances of winning in this category. Despite receiving nominations at many of the award ceremonies, neither has picked up any award.
🎬 Best Bet: Lily Gladstone 1.45 at BetMGM 🏆
Best Actor
Nominees:
- Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
- Colman Domingo (Rustin)
- Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
- Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
- Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
Just like the Best Actress category, there seem to be two favourites here: Cillian Murphy and Paul Giamatti. Just like the Actress category, both Best Actors nominees received a Golden Globe and Cillian Murphy took the SAG award while Giamatti won the Critics Choice.
This is the first nomination in this category for both actors (Giamatti was previously nominated for Best Supporting Actor).
Historically, biopics tend to do well in this category, which would be an advantage for Murphy's Robert Oppenheimer role. The Irish actor reached global fame for Tommy Shelby in Peaky Blinders, but we've all seen him in other Christopher Nolan films. The two have worked together for 20 years and Murphy has appeared in 6 of Nolan's films. This is his first leading role throughout their collaboration.
While these two have the best chances of winning the award, it's Bradley Cooper who has middling chances of winning the award. He is currently one of the most nominated people who has never won an Oscar. He has received nominations in directing, writing and acting categories, and he is nominated for all three this year. In total, he has received 10 Oscar nominations: 4 for Best Actor, 3 for Best Picture, and 1 for Best Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay. Despite his efforts to chase his first Oscar win, it's unlikely he'll break his streak this time.
There are many memes and jokes about Bradley Cooper and his lack of success which echoes the memes back when Leonardo DiCaprio was in a similar situation for his Best Actor nomination streak until he finally got his moment in 2016. Interestingly, he didn't make the cut this year for his Killers of the Flower Moon performance.
This is the first nomination for Colman Domingo and Jeffrey Wright but despite their stellar performances, they haven't won any of the major awards and are unlikely to be among the Oscar winners.
🎬 Best Bet: Cillian Murphy 1.08 at DraftKings 🏆
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
- Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
- Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
- America Ferrera (Barbie)
- Jodie Foster (Nyad)
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
Unlike the main actor categories, there seems to be a clear winner here. Da'Vine Joy Randolph has won a Golden Globe, SAG and Critics Choice for her performance in The Holdovers.
This is the first Academy Award nominations for all actresses save Jodie Foster (The Accused and Silence of the Lambs). Foster already has 2 best actress Oscars. However, it's unlikely she will take home the Best Supporting Actress prize this year.
There has been a lot of buzz around the other nominees. Danielle Brooks has received plenty of praise for her performance. The same can be said for Emily Blunt and America Ferrera. So far Emily Blunt has has won a SAG and Critics Choice for Ensemble Cast but not in this category. Before the nominations were announced, there was quite a bit of buzz around America Ferrera's performance and particularly THE speech in Barbie. It was enough to earn her a nomination, but given the way the awards have been unfolding, she may go home empty-handed.
🎬 Best Bet: Da’Vine Joy Randolph 1.03 at DraftKings 🏆
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
- Sterling K Brown (American Fiction)
- Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
- Robert Downey Jr (Oppenheimer)
- Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
- Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
Contrary to the supporting actress nominees, all actors except Sterling K Brown have previously been nominated for Oscars. This is both Ryan Gosling's and Robert Downey Jr's third nomination, Mark Ruffalo's 4th while De Niro's 9th nomination. He's previously won two Academy Awards (The Godfather Part II and Raging Bull).
This seems to be the year for Downey Jr to pick up as many awards as possible. Similar to the supporting actress category, there seems to be little competition for Downey. So far he has received the Critic's Choice, Golden Globe, and SAG awards, not to mention the Ensemble awards too.
Even though Robert Downey Jr will most likely take the award, many are rooting for Ryan Gosling to win. Partly to make up for Margot Robbie's and Greta Gerwig's snubs but also because he's just Ken and he certainly gave one of the best and most memorable performances of 2023.
The rest of the nominees are unlikely to win despite their great performances.
Should Robert Downey Jr win things will come full turn. In 2008, he lost the Oscar for Tropic Thunder to Heath Ledger, who posthumously received the award for his role as the Joker in The Dark Knight, another Christopher Nolan production.
🎬 Best Bet: Robert Downey Jr 1.03 at DraftKings 🏆
Best Director
Nominees:
- Justine Triet - Anatomy of a Fall
- Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
- Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
- Yorgos Lanthimos - Poor Things
- Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest
Christopher Nolan is the clear favourite this year. He was previously nominated for Memento, Inception and Dunkirk for Best Picture each time and either for Best Screenplay or Best Director. This year he has 3 nominations. Of his nominations, he is most likely to win this category on Oscar night.
At 81, Martin Scorsese is the oldest director to be nominated for an Oscar. This is his 10th nomination for Best Director and has previously won for The Departed. He has middling chances of winning. The odds are more favourable for Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things.
Interestlingly, both directors featuring Sandra Hüller as the main actress have been nominated: Justine Triet and Jonathan Glazer. Justine Triet is the only female director in this category for Anatomy of a fall which is also nominated for the Best Screenplay and Best Picture Oscar. Glazer will unlikely win here but will probably take home the Best Foreign Language Films Award.
🎬 Best Bet: Christopher Nolan 1.03 at BetMGM 🏆
Other Oscar Nominations
Best Score: John Wiliams, at 92, currently has the record for being the Oldest Oscar nominee in Hollywood history for his Indiana Jones score, however it's more likey that Oppenheimer's composer, Ludwig Göransson, will win the award.
Best International Feature: The Zone of Interest is the favourite to win that category this year. It has received 5 nominations, but it's most likely to take home this one.
Animated Feature: The Boy and the Heron is the clear favourite. Even though it's unlikely that the Walt Disney Company will take an award, only Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse stands a chance.
Best Adapted Screenplay: Barbie would really deserve to win this one. There was some controversy on whether it fits as adapted or original screenplay, but either way, Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach should win this. Sportsbooks are leaning toward American Fiction to win or else Oppenheimer.
Best Original Screenplay: Here it seems to be between The Holdovers and Anatomy of a Fall. Both are exceptionally written stories. Past Lives also has a shot and would a great win despite it's director, Celine Song and main character Greta Lee being excluded from other awards. Bookmakers seem to favour Anatomy of a Fall in this category.
And the 96th Academy Award Winner is ...
As always, Oscar night will be glamorous and a great event to celebrate the best movies of the past year. Let's see how many Oscars Oppenheimer will win and if there will be any surprises form the Oscar voters this year. Thanks to last summer's releases, we have witnessed somewhat of a revival of cinema and hopefully, it will endure. There is plenty to celebrate.
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Updated by
Viky Refalo
Last Updated:
