World Series Picks: Can Astros Survive Phillies' Onslaught?

World Series Picks: Can Astros Survive Phillies' Onslaught?
© USA Today

To get you ready for your World Series betting, we make our picks for Game 4. We'll start with some prop bets and then pick the game.

 

Prop Bets For Game 4 of the World Series

Book Odds Player Prop
FanDuel -160 Phillies' Bryce Harper to get a hit
FanDuel -180 Astros' Jeremy Pena to get a hit
DraftKings +120 Phillies' Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts
DraftKings +160 Astros' Yuli Gurriel Under .5 total bases
Caesars +120 Phillies' Bryce Harper to score a run
Caesars -185 Phillies' Alec Bohm Over.5 total bases

In 216 prop bets, I have a 95-121 record, but by exploiting the ‘plus money’ betting opportunities have made a profit of $637 per $20 pizza-money wager or $3,185 per $100 wager. The results have produced a 74% return on investment (ROI) for the 2022 MLB season and playoffs. 

Houston Astros -110 at Philadelphia Phillies -110

Game 4, 8:07 p.m. ET, FOX

Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia 

I am betting on the Phillies -110 as offered at BetMGM 

The rainy weather that forced the postponement of Game 3 gave and edge to the Phillies as they come into tonight’s game with Aaron Nola (11-13,3.25 ERA) starting and will get other ace Zack Wheeler (12-7, 2.82 ERA) in Game 5. 

The Astros will turn to Christian Javier (11-9, 2.54) tonight to try to contain the red-hot Phillies' offense that is tying and breaking many playoff and world series records. 

Javier gets far more flyball outs than ground outs and that may not be a good thing when the Phillies bats are this hot and playing at the hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. Javier has posted a .35 groundball to fly ball (GB/FB) ratio on the season as compared to the MLB average of .76 this season. 

He throws a four-seam fastball 60%, a slider 28%, and then mixes in a change and curve ball. He has extremely high spin rates giving his pitches late-breaking movement making it more difficult for hitters to barrel up.  

Nola has an excellent fastball that he can throw with many different variations with late-breaking movement. He has one of the best curve balls in the game. When he has complete control and can locate his fastball in the corners of the strike zone, the curve ball becomes a devastating out pitch.  

The Trends and Angles you need to know for Game 4 of the World Series 

  • Teams that are leading in the World Series are 33-29, making 8.5 units on the moneyline, and earning a 12.5% ROI since 2006.
  • Teams leading in the World Series and coming off a shutout win are 6-3, making 4.5 units, and earning a 48% ROI since 2006.
  • Favorites of not higher than -135 that hit more home runs than their opponent scored runs in the previous game are 8-4, making 3.75 units on the moneyline, earning a 27% ROI in World Series games since 2006.
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