UFC on ESPN 46: Kara-France vs. Albazi Picks

UFC on ESPN 46: Kara-France vs. Albazi Picks
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The UFC is back at the Apex in Las Vegas once more this weekend before a mouthwatering PPV card next Saturday. 

But first, a huge flyweight battle takes center stage between Amir Albazi and Kai Kara-France, as Jim Miller also steps out for a record-breaking 42nd time in the UFC against Jared Gordon.

We look at the lines from the UFC betting sites and make our picks for the weekend. 

Amir Albazi vs. Kai Kara-France 

Two men looking to make a charge towards the title in the flyweight rankings meet in the main event on Saturday night with Albazi aiming to make it six wins in a row against Kara-France.

Kara-France heads into this fight after a loss to Brandon Moreno for the interim title, and in truth, the New Zealander was outclassed from the start and up to the finish in the third round. He is still an excellent boxer, but he proved he is just not quite at the level he dreams of just yet.

He also managed to get a controversial decision win over Askar Askarov last year, meaning his only convincing win in his recent fights came in a knockout victory against Cody Garbrandt at the end of 2021. Now, up against a ferocious and skilled fighter like Albazi, he could be in real trouble.

Albazi has secured 16 wins in his 17-fight career, losing to only Jose Torres back at Brave CF 23 in 2019. The Iraqi has also secured five knockouts and nine submission wins in this run and it is his grappling game that likely wins the fight for him.

Kara-France has finished only three of his fights via submission and lost three of his matches via submission too. He is also just a blue belt in jiu jitsu and we think he’ll end up losing a few rounds and potentially get finished in by Albazi.

Amir Albazi to win on submission or points is +125 with FanDuel Sportsbook.

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Alex Caceres vs. Daniel Pineda 

Two of the UFC's most experienced fighters battle in the co-main event with Alex Caceres aiming for his 21st win from 35 fights against Daniel Pineda, who enters his 46th MMA fight.

It's been a strange few years for Pineda, as he has seen three of his past six fights turn into no contest scores after two positive tests for banned substances and an accidental eye poke from Andre Fili in 2021. Consequently, it now means the American has officially won only two fights in the past four years. Both those wins, however, were very impressive. 

Pineda first defeated Herbert Burns via TKO from brutal elbows before beating Tucker Luiz in a Performance of the Night display thanks to a second-round guillotine choke just five weeks ago.

As for Caceres, he has now secured nine decision wins, seven submission victories and four wins via knockout after his excellent head kick finish against Julian Erosa in December.

Pineda has managed to win 19 of his 28 fights via submission, and this makes us think he'll do the same here with Caceres losing seven of his 13 fights in this manner.

Daniel Pineda to win by submission is +420 with BetMGM Sportsbook.


Jared Gordon vs. Jim Miller

Jared Gordon will be aiming to overturn some terrible luck in the UFC across the past year when he meets with the legendary veteran Jim Miller in the octagon.

Gordon controversially lost to Paddy Pimblett in a battle back in December and he also saw his fight with Bobby Green end in a no contest after an accidental head clash knocked him unconscious in April.

This means Gordon's last win was against Leonardo Santos last August, although we do firmly believe the American did beat Pimblett on points back in December. However, Gordon has still gone the distance 12 times in his career from 26 fights and won 10 of those matches.

As for Jim Miller, he will be entering his 54th fight in MMA and this will be a record-breaking 42nd fight in the UFC for him. The timeless man from New Jersey did, however, lose to Alexander Hernandez back in February and we think he will likely lose on points here with Miller losing in this manner 12 times from his 17 defeats.

Jared Gordon to win on points is +135 with DraftKings Sportsbook.

Victor Altamirano vs. Tim Elliott 

Victor Altamirano is aiming for his third win in the UFC in his four fights with the organization, but he has a tough test in doing so against Tim Elliot. 

Altamirano does, however, come into this fight with a healthy record of 12 wins and two losses so far. One of those defeats came last February in a split decision loss to Carlos Hernandez, and he proved he is a well-rounded fighter in that bout.

As for Elliot, he has now won three of his past four fights after defeating Ryan Benoit, Jordan Espinosa and Tagir Ulanbekov via unanimous decision wins. The Division II wrestler put his excellent grappling skills on full display in those victories and this could cause all sorts of problems for the jiu jitsu specialist like Altamirano.

It will be a tricky fight for Elliot, but his experience in wrestling and jiu jitsu defense should be enough to get him the win on points here.

Tim Elliott to win on points is +105 with Unibet Sportsbook.


Ketlen Souza vs. Karine Silva

Two women with almost identical records in MMA kick off the main card on Saturday night as Karine Silva (15-4) meets with Ketlen Souza (13-3).

This will be the UFC debut of Souza after winning the Invicta FC flyweight title back in January with a unanimous decision win over Kristina Williams. This was her fourth victory on points after winning eight of her fights via KO/TKO. What's more, this knockout artist is also on a five-fight winning run.

Silva is on a six-fight win streak ahead of this match and has finished nine of her bouts via KO/TKO. In fact, from her 19 fights, only one of those has gone the distance after losing to Dione Silva Barbosa de Lima on points three years ago.

It's a tough one to call given how similar the two of their records are. So we're taking these sports betting odds and picking the fight to not go the distance, as only five of their combined 35 fights have needed the judges' scorecards.

Fight to not go the distance is -160 with DraftKings Sportsbook.


Other Fights to Consider

SportsbookOddsProp Bet
FanDuel Sportsbook-146Maxim Grishin to defeat Philipe Lins
Unibet Sportsbook165Elise Reed to beat Jinh Yu Frey on points
DraftKings Sportsbook120Daniel Santos ti win by KO/TKO/DQ against Johnny Munoz
Caesars Sportsbook240Luan Lacerda to win on points against Da'Mon Blackshear