Betting Advice and Analysis For The Pennzoil 400
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Perhaps this week our picks won’t crash.
Denny Hamlin was taken out in the Daytona 500, while Erik Jones was running in the top eight before he was wrecked in the final laps of the same race.
Last week in Fontana, Kyle Busch spun out early and debris to his grill caused overheating issues. Chase Briscoe ran up front and led 20 laps, appearing poised for a Top 10 finish before he hit the wall.
Maybe we can get one of our drivers in Las Vegas to finish without any incidents. I would take that, at this point.
How NASCAR’s Next Gen Car is Performing
For all the questions and uncertainty about how the new Next Gen car would handle at a more traditional NASCAR track, we saw last year’s champion and 10-time season winner Kyle Larson take the checkered flag first, despite not having the best car all day.
But there has been more parity than usual. In the two races, 19 different drivers have recorded a Top 10 finish, which is the most since 1973 to begin a season.
Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a traditional 1.5-mile layout where the best teams with top-tier equipment traditionally dominate.
Larson’s win last week supports the NASCAR betting players who prefer to back the favorites, but the level of parity could potentially leave the door open for a longshot to hit.
Here are the picks for the Penzoil 400.
Best Bet
Chase Elliott to win +800 at FanDuel and DraftKings
Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson made news when it appeared Larson blocked Elliott into the wall with 20 laps left in Fontana.
The incident made Elliott fall through the field before he spun out on his own, leaving fans to wonder if he did it intentionally or not in order to let the field bunch up to Larson as a sort of revenge for the block.
But before the block made news, Elliott proved he had one of the best cars on the day. He was leading in Stage 1 before he lost control and hit the outside wall on lap 33 before hitting it again on lap 38 to bring out the caution. He was eventually lapped because of the damage and repairs.
Despite the early issues, Elliott managed to work his way through the field and battle for the lead with Larson with 20 laps to go. That performance, along with him finishing second in the Las Vegas fall race, are enough for me to back him here. I like the number he’s getting on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Longshot
Chase Briscoe to win +5000
Back on Briscoe again this week. Like I mentioned before, he led 20 laps, showed good speed by running up front and appeared set for a top 10 finish.
He's also had success here recently, winning both the Xfinity Series races in Las Vegas during the 2020 season.
Best Prop
Tyler Reddick Top 3 +410 FanDuel
Tyler Reddick had the best car Sunday at Fontana. He was dominant early on, winning the first two stages and leading 90 laps before a flat tire forced him into a 26th-place finish. For perspective, Reddick had led only 73 laps in his first 75 Cup starts before leading 90 of the first 151 laps at Fontana.
Even last year he was strong at Las Vegas. At the fall race, Reddick was battling with Denny Hamlin for the lead until a slow pit stop forced him into a sixth-place finish. He’s also won an Xfinity Series race at this track in 2018 and a 2016 Truck race, too.
Given his recent form and success here, Reddick for a top-three finish is a solid prop bet. I love this number at FanDuel. He’s also +1600 at DraftKings to win the race.
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