NBA Betting Analysis and Predictions for March 30
The Phoenix Suns have had one of the best seasons in NBA history, are 46 games over .500 and have a 13.5-game lead over the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference. They take on the Golden State Warriors at 10 p.m. ET today at the Chase Center in San Francisco.
The Suns have had the best record since New Year's Eve, sporting a remarkable 34-6 straight-up record and 24-16 against the spread for 60% wins, including a 23-17 Over-Under mark.
The Warriors have stumbled to 21-21 straight-up record and a money-burning 18-24-1 against the spread.
So, how should you spend your NBA betting money on this game?
What Do the Analytics Have to Say?
Phoenix is 31-18-1 against the spread when taking on an opponent that is averaging 23 or more assists per game this season.
The Suns are 20-8 against the spread in the second half of each of the past two seasons when taking on an opponent that is allowing 108 or fewer points per game.
The Warriors are 11-22 against the spread when facing a foe that is averaging 24 or fewer free throws per game after game No. 41 of the current season.
The following betting system has earned a solid 80-40-3 against the spread record, for 67% winning bets over the past five seasons.
The requirements are to be on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in games played in the second half of the regular season that have beaten the spread by 17 or more points in total over their past three games.
More analytics point to betting the Suns, who are 21-9 against the spread following five consecutive games in which they shot at least 47% from the field in games played over the past two seasons.
They are also 17-6 against the spread in road games after covering five or six of their past seven games in games played over the last two seasons.
I am going to the window to bet the Suns.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Toronto Raptors
The Toronto Raptors look to win their fourth consecutive game and top off a terrific homestand when they play host to the Minnesota Timberwolves at 7:30 p.m. ET tonight.
These two teams met on Feb. 16 and Toronto won 103-91 as a 12-point road underdog.
So how should you spend your NBA betting money on this one? Let’s take a look.
How The Teams Match Up
The Timberwolves are the second-highest scoring team in the Association, averaging 115.4 points per game. They like to get out on the fast break off missed opponent shots and rank fourth in that category, averaging 15.1 points per game.
They live and die by the 3-pointer, ranking first in both 3-point shot attempts at 41.4 per game and made shots at 14.7 per game. But, they rank 13th by making 35.5% of those shots.
Toronto gets a lot of second chance scoring opportunities because of its outstanding offensive rebounding, which ranks second at 13.5 boards per game.
It also ranks second by getting an offensive rebound on 28.5% of its missed shots. As a result, it ranks second in opponent defensive rebound percentage at 71.5%.
The Raptors’ defense will be the X-factor in this matchup, knowing they make terrific game adjustments that can help erase deficits before the third quarter is even half completed.
They rank fourth in the league by allowing 26 third-quarter points per game. If the Raptors are trailing at the half by fewer than 10 points, that could present a live, in-game betting opportunity on them.
What do the Analytics Tell Us?
Toronto is in good position to earn a straight-up and against the spread win over the Timberwolves.
The Raptors are 26-13-1 against the spread when facing a team with a winning record this season and 9-1 ATS when facing teams that are making an average of 14 or more 3-point shots in games played this season.
They are 25-11 ATS after one or more games have resulted in the Over wager cashing in.
They are 28-12-2 ATS coming off a win of six or fewer points in games played over the past three seasons.
I like the Raptors, currently a 2.5-point favorite to win straight-up and cover the spread.
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