Georgia vs. Alabama Today: Betting Analysis and Predictions
Even if you’re not a fan of Georgia or Alabama, the College Football Championship game featuring those two wasn’t a surprise.
How Will Rematch Affect Georgia?
The fact that Georgia lost to Alabama 41-24 in the SEC Championship game cannot be overestimated when breaking down the match-ups for this game being held at the Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
Psychologically, Georgia knew it was in the College Football Playoff no matter the SEC Championship outcome. When any team has that mentality, its performance suffers because there is no urgency required.
Now, there is no tomorrow for both teams and there is no doubt we will be entertained greatly by the two best teams in the land. And, if you're a college football betting enthusiast, here are some facts for you to use before making your wager.
Alabama Angles for College Football Championship Betting
If you like Alabama, I have some fun facts for you that will heat up your passion. Over the past two seasons, Alabama has been 13-4-1 ATS when competing against a team that completes 58% or more of its pass attempts.
Under coach Nick Saban, the Crimson Tide is 33-15 ATS when facing a strong-willed run defense that allows an average of 3.25 or fewer rushing yards per game.
The Tide’s legendary head coach is 74-47-1 ATS following one or more consecutive wins, 14-4-1 ATS following a game in which his team gained 300 or more rushing yards and 9-1 ATS in road or neutral sites when facing an elite rushing defensive team allowing an average of not more than 90 yards per game.
Georgia Angles for College Football Championship Betting
For the Georgia fans and backers, I have good solid facts for you as well. The ‘Dawgs’ are a solid 52-24-2 ATS in road games coming off one or more consecutive UNDER games. An UNDER game simply means that the combined score of the two teams was lower in value than the posted total to bet on for the game.
They are 28-17-1 ATS after winning at least eight of their last 10 games dating back 20 seasons and 11-6 for 65% winning bets over the past five seasons.
Saban is not the only coach in the nation to achieve impressive situational angles in their careers. Georgia’s Kirby Smart is a highly profitable 19-4-1 ATS after having won six or seven of his team’s last eight games, 22-8 ATS in road or neutral sites coming off one or more consecutive wins, and 15-3-1 ATS when coming off a game in which the gained 6.25 or more yards per play.
Our Pick for Best Bet
From my predictive playbook models that I developed using Python, I like the OVER bet in this matchup. The models expect Georgia will gain at least 9 yards per pass attempt.
In past games in which Alabama allowed 9 or more yards per pass attempt, the OVER is 4-0 this season, 8-0 the past three seasons.
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