What We Learned in Week 7 of College Football
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We learned that college football is one great game.
After the win by Tennessee against Alabama, a 52-49 instant classic, how can you not be romantic about the game?
I am not trying to pour ice water on the Volunteers' streak (6-0), but they are in the regression zone right now.
Perhaps not this week when they host Tennessee-Martin, but Kentucky and No. 1 Georgia are back-to-back weeks 8 and 9.
The Big Favorites Continue to Win
In Week 6, favorites of 17.5 or more points went 6-0 SU, but just 2-4 ATS, including a 2-4 Over-Under record.
So, these big favorites have gone 167-10, hitting 94.4% wins, but the market has them priced correctly with an 88-86-3 ATS record, including an 86-87-4 Over-Under record.
Did the Ranked Teams Dominate in Week 7?
Ranked teams playing at home in Week 7 went 10-0 SU, 6-4 ATS and 5-4-1 Over-Under.
Ranked teams on the road went 1-8 SU, 4-5 ATS and 7-2 Over-Under.
Kansas was the only ranked team facing an unranked team to lose. Write this down. Ranked underdogs on the road against an unranked host are 0-7 SU, 2-5 ATS (29%), and 4-3 Over-Under. Fade the ranked underdog on the road against an unranked opponent.
Food for the Betting Souls
I am looking at some strong betting opportunities in Week 8 with conference matchups of ranked teams coming off a loss.
The most intriguing is Penn State, coming off the 41-17 loss to Michigan, which will host Minnesota and is priced as only a 4.5-point favorite.
Check out this situational betting system that has earned a 35-41 SU record, a 52-21-3 against the spread (71%) record and a 36-40 Over-Under mark since 2015.
- Bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points.
- The underdog is coming off two double-digit losses to conference foes.
- The game is being played between Weeks 5 and 9.
If the favorite, in this case, Penn State, is coming off a double-digit loss to a conference foe and lost by double digits in their previous game, our dog has posted a 9-14 SU record, 14-8-1 ATS (64%), and an 8-15 Over-Under record, good for 6% winning Under bets.
Best Bet for Week 6 to Bet Now
In a big ACC matchup, Louisville hosts Pittsburgh and is priced as a 1.5-point favorite. I like Louisville and see the line moving to 3 or even 3.5 points by kickoff Saturday.
Betting on teams:
- That average 4.75 or more yards per rush for the season.
- That outgained their previous opponent by 150 or more rushing yards.
- That is facing an opponent that allows 4.25 to 4.75 yards per rush.
- The total is between 50 and 59 points.
This set of parameters has earned a 59-31 SU record, 57-31-2 ATS (65%) record and 39-44-7 Over-Under result since 2015.
Go to the window if you agree with the research, and bet Louisville now and let's see where the market takes the price by kickoff Saturday.
Through Week 7 of the college football season, I have earned a 15-4 ATS record for 79% winning bets.
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